The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, hosts the unofficial fifth major, THE PLAYERS Championship. Home of the iconic island green on the 17th hole, the Stadium Course has undergone some renovations in preparation for this year’s event, the most notable of which was turning No. 12 into a drivable Par 4 that should create both eagles and ugly crooked numbers this week. Unchanged is the typical Pete Dye design and layout that will challenge every part of a player’s game.
Currently 24 of the world’s top-25 ranked golfers are scheduled to compete. With such a stacked field, this would be a great week to fire up the Lineup Builder and shotgun some lineups into the low-stakes guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg), and Scrambling (SC) are the metrics we will concentrate on this week.
Hey, Mr. DJ
Dustin Johnson is one of the highest-rated golfers in both the CSURAM88 and Bales Player Models this week, and for good reason: Johnson’s 67.6 LT Adj Rd Score and 17.0 LT Adj Bird Avg both rank inside the top-three of this loaded field; his 61.0 LT SC percentage ranks 25th.
Further, DJ’s current form is off the charts: He won three straight tournaments before finishing in second place at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, and he has finished no worse than third in his last five events.
Johnson’s history at TPC Sawgrass is not nearly as glamorous, however: He hasn’t finished better than 28th (last year) in eight career starts in this event. Per our Trends tool, DJ has averaged 65.17 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) and generated a -0.73 Plus/Minus in his last three trips to this track. That said, Johnson’s heavy 12.5 percent odds to win are currently the best in the field.
Newlywed Swag
Unlike Johnson, the newly-married Rory McIlroy has thrived in recent trips to TPC Sawgrass. In fact, McIlroy’s 68.2 Course Adjusted Round Score is the fifth-best score among golfers who have made more than one start at this course. Rory has not finished worse than 12th and has three top-10 finishes in his last four trips here. McIlroy has produced a +10.15 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency here since 2014.
McIlroy is tied with Johnson atop the field with his 67.6 LT Adj Rd Score, and his massive, field-best 17.5 LT Adj Bird Avg makes him an elite play in DraftKings’ birdie-heavy scoring system every week. On FanDuel, McIlroy ranks behind only Johnson with 50.6 fantasy points per game in Rounds 3 and 4. We currently have McIlroy projected to be the chalk play of the week with 26-30 percent ownership in large-field tournaments. Pro Subscribers can review ownership across various buy-in levels in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after the tournament starts.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Sergio Garcia: Garcia — fresh off his first Major victory — ranks seventh in the field with both his 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score and 15.3 LT Adj Bird Avg. Sergio has three top-10 finishes in his last four trips here, including a runner-up finish in 2015. Garcia ranks second to only Johnson with 85.1 PPT over the past calendar year.
Jon Rahm: If you’re looking for a reason not to play Rahm, this is his first time playing at TPC Sawgrass. That said, the dude is a beast. Like Garcia, Rahm is tied for seventh in the field with his 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score, and his 16.8 LT Adj Bird Avg is fourth overall. Rahm has two top-10 finishes (including a fourth place last week) in his last three tournaments.
Justin Rose: Rose has alternated two missed cuts with fourth- and 19th-place finishes here the past four years, but he is playing some of the best golf of his career currently: His 66.8 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks second among golfers in the field with more than one start the past six weeks. Importantly, Rose’s 20.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks second overall.
Martin Kaymer: Kaymer’s 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score ranks 25th, and he’s tied for 23rd in the field with his 14.2 LT Adj Bird Avg. Martin won this event in 2014 and hasn’t missed a cut here in his eight appearances: He is tied for 10th in the field with his 68.4 Course Adj Rd Score.
Russell Knox: Knox has finished 34th or better here in three starts since 2014: He is tied with McIlroy at 68.2 for the fifth-best Course Adj Rd Score in the field among golfers with more than one start. He could go overlooked in GPPs this week and is worth a flyer or two as a contrarian play based on his FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in tournaments.
Zach Johnson: Prior to last year’s 54th-place finish, ZJ had six straight finishes of 26th or better, including a runner-up finish in 2012. Johnson’s 68.1 Course Adj Rd Score ranks third among golfers with more than one start at TPC Sawgrass. Zach’s 61.3 LT SC percentage ranks 21st, his 13.9 LT Adj Bird Avg is 30th, and his 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 36th.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Hideki Matsuyama is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Matsuyama has improved his finishing position at TPC Sawgrass in each of his three trips here, beginning with a 23rd-place finish in his debut and finishing with a seventh-place effort last year. Matsuyama’s 67.7 Course Adj Rd Score is second overall.
Hideki’s 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 11th, his 15.1 LT Adj Rd Score ranks ninth, and his 60.9 LT SC percentage is 26th overall. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win (4.8 percent) this tournament.
Pro Subscribers should check out Levitan’s newest premium video: Underrated Stats for THE PLAYERS Championship.
Humpnostication
Hump wasn’t terrible last week with Alexander Noren being at or near the top of the leaderboard for most of the tournament. (Yes, I know he shot a 77 on Sunday. Let’s move on.)
Justin Thomas gets my Coors Light monies this week: His 67.3 Course Adj Rd score leads the field, and he finished in third place here last year. Thomas will be playing the course with Johnson and McIlroy in the GOAT opening rounds pairing, and perhaps the two birdie-making machines will inspire JT to improve upon his 13.9 LT Adj Bird Avg this week.
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Good luck this week!
