An integral part of daily fantasy research is looking at Vegas data, which we display each slate in our Vegas Dashboard. Identifying favorites and underdogs is useful, but examining line movement and other Vegas trends has the potential to reveal even more actionable information. In this third and final piece of our MLB Vegas Data series, we’ll look at moneyline percentages and opening/closing total differentials and what they mean for hitters and pitchers.
Part 1 covers favorites, underdogs, and moneylines. Part 2 covers over/unders and team-implied totals.
Moneyline Percentages
We’ve previously seen that moneylines are positively correlated with production, value, and ownership. Now we’ll look at moneyline percentages to see how the public’s action on a given line has historically correlated with fantasy production.
Hitters
Here’s how all hitters from 2014 to 2016 have done based on moneyline percentages:
A few notes:
- Moneyline percentage has historically been positively correlated with hitting production, value, and consistency. Still, our study on moneylines (in Part 1) had wider ranges for production, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating.
- Ownership has jumped fairly significantly across tiers for both moneyline percentage and moneylines.
- In the highest moneyline percentage quintile — in which hitters have historically been at their best — ownership has been less extreme on DraftKings.
Pitchers
Here’s how pitchers have done based on moneyline percentages:
What we see with hitters we also see with pitchers. A higher moneyline percentage has historically correlated with more production, value, consistency, and ownership. While there are relatively few pitchers with team moneyline percentages greater than 80 percent, these pitchers have had enhanced production with minimal ownership escalation in comparison to the 61-80 percent tier.
Opening/Closing Differentials for Game Totals and Moneylines
Opening Vegas totals and moneylines often change prior to the start of games. Sometimes the changes are caused by injuries or major lineup adjustments. Sometimes the line changes are driven by large action from sharp bettors, in which case we could see reverse line movement, which we’ve broken down for both hitters and pitchers. Let’s take a look at how changes in Vegas totals and moneylines have historically impacted DFS production.
Vegas Total Open/Close Differential
From 2014 to 2016, 56.6 percent of games have had a Vegas total open/close differential of zero. The below table covers all other games:
We’ve previously determined team-implied runs are more indicative of future performance than game totals, and this table reinforces that finding. A Vegas total’s open/close differential appears to be helpful mostly in extreme situations. A large change in Vegas total can result from either team, so be sure to consider each team’s specific implied total when monitoring a game’s over/under differential.
Moneyline Differentials
Only 3.2 percent of games from 2014 to 2016 haven’t had any moneyline movement. The below table covers all other games:
A few thoughts:
- Large moneyline shifts in favor of hitters and pitchers have been correlated with increased production, value, consistency, and ownership. That last statistic is particularly relevant, as hitters and pitchers have posted sky-high ownership levels in games with moneyline differentials greater than -50.
- Minor changes to moneylines haven’t resulted in a ton of value. In the 4,000 games with no moneyline differential, hitters posted a +0.14 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
- Consistency Rating has been strongly correlated across tiers for both hitters and pitchers.
Takeaways
Moneyline percentages and Vegas differentials have proven to be correlated with DFS production. Here are some specifics:
- Historically, higher moneyline percentages have been correlated with heightened production and ownership. Players on teams with moneyline percentages greater than 80 percent have been particularly valuable, especially on DraftKings, where they haven’t had an ownership premium.
- Extreme Vegas total open/close differenials are correlated with player production, but they also have limited value.
- Moneyline differentials, especially those greater than -50, have been strongly correlated with player performance and ownership.
Within our Player Models we have a Vegas section with up-to-the-minute data. When you’re constructing rosters with our Lineup Builder, remember to take into account moneyline percentages and Vegas differentials.
And of course be sure to do your own Vegas research with the FantasyLabs Tools.
