The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There’s a sizable salary gap between the four highest-priced pitchers today — Jake Arrieta, Carlos Carrasco, Jacob deGrom, and Marcus Stroman — and everyone else:
These four guys all have moderately difficult matchups with the exception of maybe Arrieta. Here’s how each opposing team fares in 2017 team wOBA:
- Arrieta vs. Phillies: .321, 11th
- Carrasco vs. Tigers: .329, 7th
- deGrom vs. Braves: .324, 8th
- Stroman vs. Yankees: .352, 2nd
Bettors seem to believe a little more in Arrieta and Carrasco, as they have implied run totals of 3.1 and 3.3, but there are some major differences between the two, especially in their recent production and Statcast data. Arrieta is coming off a brutal outing against the Red Sox in which he scored only 1.95 DraftKings points and allowed five earned runs and 10 hits across 4.1 innings. Predictably, his recent batted ball data isn’t amazing: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. Those aren’t egregiously bad marks — especially the distance — but they are elevated for a guy with the highest price tag.
Carrasco, on the other hand, has been excellent this season, averaging a +7.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his first five starts:
And his Statcast data is also solid: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 196 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of just 15 percent. He’s posted the highest Consistency Rating (57 percent) and the lowest Duds rate (15 percent) over the past year among the four studs, and he will likely be a popular cash-game option given his recent form.
Mets righty deGrom is perhaps the most intriguing of the group. He’s flashed the highest ceiling of late, going for double-digit Ks in each of his last three starts, but his Statcast data is also awful. Let me rephrase: It’s nauseatingly terrible. Over his last two games, deGrom has allowed a batted ball distance of 260 feet, an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 44 percent, and a hard hit rate of 62 percent. Here’s a definition of our new Recent Batted Ball Luck metric:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
We actually considered changing the definition in our Player Models to “2017 deGrom.” Over his last two games, he’s averaged an +8.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus, which suggests he’s been incredibly lucky. That could change today against the Braves, but it’s also important to note that deGrom has the highest K Prediction (8.5) among these four pitchers and the third-highest mark overall. He’s worth a shot on DraftKings at $10,400, but he’s harder to roster on FanDuel, where his slate-high $11,000 salary comes with a low 36 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Given the tough matchups and uninspiring Statcast data of some of the top options today, dipping down in salary might be a popular move. Julio Urias is popping in many of our Pro Models for the same reason Alex Wood did yesterday: He’s facing the Giants, who are currently implied for just 3.3 runs and rank a miserable 29th in the league this year with a .278 team wOBA. Further, several of their batters in the projected lineup are prone to strikeouts, which is a big reason why Urias has a slate-high 9.7 K Prediction. But, Urias’ player rating — like Wood’s yesterday — is misleading, as he’s likely on a pitch count. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn’t explicitly communicated that, but Urias got only 90 pitches in his first start and went about the same in his Triple-A warm-up. Urias could certainly put up a good outing, and he’s especially cheap at $7,400 on FanDuel, but he has limited upside compared to other options.
Robbie Ray presents the same dilemma every slate: Do you want to take the chance on his strikeout upside, or are you too worried about a high opponent run total? He has a brutal matchup against the Washington Nationals, who rank first in the league this season with a .369 team wOBA and literally put up TWENTY-THREE RUNS three days ago. It’s terrifying rostering any pitcher against the Nats, but Ray is cheap at $8,300 on both sites and has a 9.1 K Prediction, the second-highest mark in the slate. On the whole, pitchers with a similar range of K Prediction and opponent run total haven’t done well historically (per the MLB Trends tool). . .
. . . but Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating aren’t really important here. Ray isn’t a serious candidate for cash games, so all we should be analyzing is his potential upside. And while the average pitcher hits his Upside mark around nine percent of the time, pitchers who approach a K Prediction of 9.0 have historically hit theirs in 11 percent of starts. That is notable and makes Ray worth considering as a dart in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Adam Wainwright would have been a nice option today, but St. Louis is currently under a flash flood watch, per the National Weather Service, and there’s literally a 100 percent chance of rain tonight. It seems unlikely this game will play.
Fastballs
Drew Pomeranz: He faces a Baltimore team currently implied for 4.2 runs but is still a nice -142 favorite; his recent Statcast data has been solid — he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 31 percent over his last two — and he has a respectable 7.4 K Prediction.
Antonio Senzatela: The 22-year-old Rockies righty has been solid to start the year, averaging a +5.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his first five starts; he struggled last game against the Nationals but still has impressive Statcast data, as evidenced by his 196-foot batted ball distance, 89 mile per hour exit velocity, and low 23 percent hard hit rate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (using player ratings in the Bales Model as our guide) is a 1-2-3-5-6 stack of the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates aren’t exactly a juggernaut offense — they rank just 23rd in 2017 with a .147 team ISO — but really anyone can be a juggernaut against Reds righty Rookie Davis. Take a look at his three starts this year:
His best game came against these very Pirates early in the season, but it was in one of the best pitcher’s parks. Today’s game is in Cincinnati, which has a 67 Park Factor for right-handed batters. For reference, that’s the second-best mark today after the one for lefties at Yankee Stadium. The Pirates are currently implied for 4.6 runs — the third-highest mark in the slate — and could be a popular stack given their matchup.
The highest-rated four-man non-Pirates stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
Houston is currently implied for a slate-high 4.9 runs and gets Nick Martinez on the mound, who owns the third-worst past-year HR/9 in the slate at 1.811. That said, Martinez actually hasn’t been bad this season: Over his first two starts, he’s averaged an +8.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s allowed just four earned runs across 13 innings. His Statcast data suggests it isn’t luck, either: Over that same time frame, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 201 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. Those are elite marks, but many of the Houston batters also have elite marks, like Carlos Correa, who has averaged a batted ball distance of 256 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. Something has to give tonight, and the betting public suggests it will be Martinez.
Batters
Since Matt LaMarca also wrote about the Astros in today’s MLB stacking piece, let me talk about one more. I’ve discussed how I like to create models solely to identify undervalued stacks. In a recent MLB live show — there’s one today at 5pm ET, by the way — I built a model solely to find batters and stacks crushing the ball but unlucky in their production. Today, that model likes the Dodgers. Corey Seager and Justin Turner have elite Statcast data lately . . .
. . . and their Recent Batted Ball Luck marks suggest they’ve been a little unlucky of late. They have a tough matchup against Giants righty Jeff Samardzija, who has pitched well this season, but they’re still implied for 4.3 runs. Further, they’ll likely carry low ownership in this massive 15-game slate. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Ryan Zimmerman hit value again last night, and he’s now done this over his last 10 games:
The dude has scored at least 9.5 FanDuel points in each of his last 15 games. That’s just absurd. Today he’s on the right side of his extreme splits against lefties, and his Statcast data continues to be video game-like: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent. The Nationals are implied for just 4.3 runs against Ray, which is good in the sense that it will keep their ownership levels down. And if at low ownership you can roster this guy — who hits cleanup (per the MLB Lineups page) for the best offense in the league — that seems to be a +EV move.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
