An integral part of daily fantasy research is looking at Vegas data, which we display each slate in our Vegas Dashboard. Identifying favorites and underdogs is useful, but examining line movement and other Vegas trends has the potential to reveal even more actionable information. In this second piece of our MLB Vegas Data series, we’ll look at some historical data surrounding over/unders and implied totals and what they mean for hitters and pitchers.
Vegas Totals
Using our Trends tool, we can determine how hitter and pitcher performance has varied depending on closing Vegas totals. First, we’ll look at how hitters have performed from 2014 to 2016 based on the closing over/unders.
Hitters
Hitters have historically played better with higher Vegas totals. Of note is that 75 percent of games with Vegas totals over 10 have come at Coors Field. In games with Vegas totals between 5.5 and 10.0, the correlation between Vegas total and fantasy performance is apparent. Naturally, this increased production has come with higher ownership. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of all stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Pitchers
With pitchers, we see a negative correlation between over/under and fantasy production. They’ve scored more fantasy points with higher Plus/Minus values and Consistency Ratings (and ownership) in games with low Vegas totals.
It’s not surprising that hitters have performed better with high and pitchers with low Vegas totals. Still, we can go a step further and analyze hitter and pitcher performance based on team (instead of game) implied run totals.
Hitters: Implied Runs
By taking a game’s Vegas total and spread, we can determine how many runs a team is implied to score. If the Red Sox are favored by 1.5 runs against the Blue Jays and the game has a Vegas total of 10, then we know the Red Sox are implied to score 5.75 runs; the Blue Jays, 4.25. Our Vegas Dashboard automatically calculates each team’s implied total for each slate.
Here’s how batters have performed based on their implied team totals:
Hitters have historically produced positive value with implied totals over four runs. The value has been most prevalent on teams with implied totals between 5.1 and 6.0 runs. There’s clearly value in teams with totals of six-plus runs, but those have been relatively rare, and 65 percent of them have come at Coors Field.
Knowing that hitters do better with higher team implied totals, we can combine this information with other variables to find even great value. Here’s some additional data on hitters whose teams are in the sweet spot of 4.6-6.0 implied runs:
- This group has been solid at home but even better on the road, where they’ve posted an impressive +1.2 Plus/Minus.
- These hitters have historically had higher Plus/Minus values and reduced ownership as underdogs than as favorites.
- Lineup order still matters. Hitters batting seventh through ninth in this group have posted a -0.23 Plus/Minus compared to the +1.43 Plus/Minus for hitters batting one through six.
Here’s data for hitters on teams with implied totals of 3.1-4.5 runs:
- This group has struggled wherever they’ve played, posting agnostic home/away splits.
- These hitters do better as favorites, posting a positive Plus/Minus in that situation.
- Hitters batting within the first six spots of the order have posted a positive Plus/Minus. Hitters batting seventh and lower have not.
All else being equal, hitters with high-implied totals are more productive and valuable than hitters with low-implied totals. Still, salary and ownership are major factors in roster construction, and there are situations in which other variables can help us decide when to leverage players with optimal or suboptimal implied totals.
Pitchers: Opponent Implied Runs
Here’s how pitchers have performed based on opponent implied team totals:
Pitchers have been at their best with opponent implied totals of no more than four runs. We see strong negative correlations in all four categories on both DraftKings and FanDuel as opponent implied totals rise. Perhaps unsurprisingly, regardless of opponent totals pitchers tend to be more effective as favorites and at home, which makes sense, given that the win bonus is not insignificant and pitchers might know how to pitch to contact better in their home stadiums. While many factors go into lineup construction, history indicates that we generally want to avoid pitchers with implied totals of more than four runs.
Takeaways
Over/unders and implied run totals have a significant impact on hitter and pitcher fantasy performance. Here are some specifics:
- Hitter and pitcher performance has been more correlated to team implied totals than game totals.
- Hitters with implied totals between 4.6 and 6.0 runs have been particularly valuable on the road or as underdogs.
- Hitters batting within the first six spots of the order have returned positive value even with low implied totals.
- Pitchers have struggled to return value with opponent implied totals over four runs. They’ve remained better at home and as favorites regardless of opponent implied totals.
Within our Player Models we have a Vegas section with up-to-the-minute data. When you’re constructing rosters with our Lineup Builder, remember to take into account over/unders and team-implied totals as well as the production and ownership associated with various implied run ranges.
And of course be sure to do your own Vegas research with the FantasyLabs Tools.
