Welcome to Week 13! If you’re one of the brave souls who ventured out into the Black Friday madness this past weekend to flex your bargain hunting skills, you possess far more courage than I. Having worked retail in college, I’ve witnessed enough moms fighting over vacuum cleaners to last me a lifetime – seriously, things got ugly. But if you’re anything like my wife, the thought of standing in line for hours on end and fighting through the hordes of traffic is not near enough to deter you from a good deal – she’s tough like that.
As she departed off on her journey to Mordor – err, Target – this past weekend, I made one last attempt to remind her that just because something is cheap, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good deal. While a great price can make something more appealing, she should try to ensure that it’s a product we would have at least considered buying prior to its steep discount – lest we end up with yet another Snuggie or pack of ShamWows…
Applying this same concept to DFS, we always need to ensure that the player has merit and can meet their expected point value, regardless of how cheap they are. A minimum player who posts a zero in your lineup will likely have mitigated any added value you’ve gained by being able to fit in the salary of a stud that week.
With this in mind, our look at bargains may be a bit different than columns featured at other sites. The focus won’t necessarily be on the cheapest option available, but instead it will lean towards finding a few great values on DraftKings, as compared to FanDuel and Yahoo pricing.
Our main method of measuring this will be Fantasy Labs’ Bargain Rating, which is a metric that allows us to measure how much of a discount a player is from one site to another.
We’ll also factor in overall price in relation to their position, price change over the past week and the past month.
And remember, you can always find a list of all players sorted by their Bargain Rating by visiting the Player Ratings page!
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Bargain Rating on DraftKings: 100%
Current Price: $5,200
Price change over last week: +$200
Price change over last month: -$300
All FitzMagic has done so far this season is exceed value in every game but one and that occurrence was due to an early exit caused by injury. And he’s not just squeaking by, he’s exceeding his expected point total by a healthy margin.
With a matchup against the league’s worst passing defense – in terms of passing yards allowed – and owners of a very generous Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.3, Fitzpatrick should be on your radar this week. If you’re doing a quick scan of the matchups, don’t be concerned by the fact that he is technically a member of the “visiting team” this week, as Fitzpatrick and the Jets will take on the Giants in the two teams’ shared venue – a location that has been quite kind to him this season.
The former Ivy-leaguer is averaging 2.0 touchdowns passes per game in the friendly confines of MetLife Stadium, as opposed to only 1.2 on the road (this number does include the game he exited early against Oakland though). With the Giants having allowed a healthy 19.12 DraftKings (DK) points to quarterbacks at MetLife, Fitzpatrick is a good bet to approach his projected point total of 20.1 and an unlikely candidate to fall below his implied point total of 12.63.
Excluding the hapless Matt Cassel, opposing quarterbacks have averaged a healthy 21.28 DK points, which would make for a nice return on investment at Fitzpatrick’s $5,200 salary. At his near minimum price and possessing two elite red zone threats in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, he deserves consideration in cash games this week if you’re looking to spend down at the position.
His upside has been limited a bit this season though, as he has failed to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game, lessening his appeal some in GPP formats. But with Decker and Marshall at his disposal, a big game is never out of the question.
C.J. Anderson
Bargain Rating on DraftKings: 99%
Current Price: $3,500
Price change over last week: $0
Price change over last month: -$600
Is it possible he’s really back? I think he is and at his price tag, he doesn’t even need to be “the guy” against the dreadful San Diego Chargers rush defense – they’ve allowed the second-most DK points to running backs this season. So if he in fact is “back” and facing the Chargers this week, what could go wrong? Well, for starters Gary Kubiak could opt to keep Ronnie Hillman as the lead back and give CJA 6-8 touches. That’s definitely not outside of the realm of possibility, as Kubiak has shown an affinity for Hillman, despite Anderson’s recovery from injury.
While the work load split is certainly worrisome, his price on DK – Anderson costs only 7% of your budget on DK as opposed to 11.33% on FanDuel – and the matchup are enticing.
Running backs in comparable situations – similar price reductions over the last month, a huge Plus/Minus, and a positive matchup (Opponent Plus/Minus over 0.00) – have fared quiet well. While the above Plus/Minus is inflated by Lamar Miller’s massive 41.6 DK point performance, it does help to illustrate the point that when talented players have massive price reductions, we need to take note.
As Anderson proved this past week, when given the opportunity he is capable of elite numbers. What he hasn’t convinced me of, is the ability to receive a consistent workload in this offense. Because of this unpredictability, he’s tough to trust in cash games. However, if you find yourself needing an absolute bottom dollar option – and are looking to pivot away from David Johnson – due to his extremely low salary, CJA needs only 6.21 DK points to meet value this week. In this matchup, that’s something he should be able to achieve, even if we see the workload fluctuate back to Hillman a bit.
His volatility, high upside and low price should make for a great GPP play; especially if you’re looking to fit in some of the bigger names on the slate. Keep an eye on the ownership numbers that come out from the FanDuel Thursday night lock games – if he can be had at a decent ownership percentage, he provides some really nice upside for your lineups.
