We’re about a month into the 2015-2016 NBA Season and there have definitely been some surprises so far – for example, it turns out the Warriors are really good and the 76ers are really bad. Just kidding. I think this does give us a good chance to review what has and has not been working at this early juncture in the season though. Let’s fire up the Plus/Minus filters and see what we have!
Note: Data as of 11/30/15.
Point Guard
Worst – Miami Heat (-1.85 Plus/Minus)
This is an example where you have to think outside of the individual matchup. Certainly, there are better defenders at the point guard position than Goran Dragic. But Miami has several tough defenders on their current roster and play at the second slowest pace in the league, just behind San Antonio. I would argue that a slow pace hurts point guards more than any other position as the true quarterback in an offense. Over the first month of the season, Miami has given up 30+ points to opposing point guards just five times.
More Poor Matchups:
- Boston Celtics (-1.00)
- Indiana Pacers (-0.98)
- Charlotte Hornets (-0.53)
Best – Los Angeles Lakers (+5.13 Plus/Minus)
New year, same Lakers. The Lakers have been the best matchup for point guards and it hasn’t even been particularly close:
The Lakers have actually played at an average pace this year (12th fastest), but they have been so poor defensively, it hasn’t mattered. When you look at starting point guards only (those priced $5,200 and above), the results are just silly:
They have held two point guards in this category below expectations all year (Dragic, R Jackson), and other than that, it’s been bombs away.
More Strong Matchups:
- New Orleans Pelicans (+3.96)
- Orlando Magic (+3.84)
- Houston Rockets (+3.22)
Shooting Guard/Small Forward
Worst – San Antonio Spurs (-3.36 Plus/Minus)
We already know about Kawhi Leonard’s perimeter defensive and when you add in the sloth-like pace at which the Spurs play their games, it’s resulted in a big suck sandwich for opposing wings. A Spurs opponent has been projected to score over 100 points just once this season – opening night against the Thunder (and it didn’t go especially well for Durant).
Home, away, favorite, dog – doesn’t matter, it’s all bad going against the Spurs.
More Poor Matchups:
- Miami Heat (-1.76)
- Los Angeles Lakers (-1.11)
- Dallas Mavericks (-1.08)
Best – Houston Rockets (+3.81 Plus/Minus)
The Rockets have played an up-tempo and careless style of play that has catered to opposing wing players. The Rockets rank right on the cusp of the top 10 in terms of fastest pace and have allowed the third most turnovers per game (14.9) in 2015-2016. Additionally, Houston ranks within the top 10 in terms of 3-pointers allowed and top five in opponent eFG%.
The Rockets do present an interesting split when filtering games where the opponent is the favorite or underdog. This screenshot shows a split of nearly five points depending on whether the team facing the Rockets is favored or the underdog.
That’s pretty remarkable considering the favorite/dog split for all teams in 2015-2015:
More Strong Matchups:
- Milwaukee Bucks (+2.81)
- Brooklyn Nets (+2.21)
- Phoenix Suns (+1.9)
Power Forward/Center
Worst – Phoenix Suns (-2.53)
To me, it’s pretty ironic that the team ranked number one here is one of the first teams I think about in teams going small. Quite frankly, that’s probably just it – the Suns are currently the fastest paced team in the league and if you get caught playing their style of game, the offense is going to cater more to guards and wing players. That’s not to say that the Suns don’t have capable defenders as both Tyson Chandler and Alex Len rate positively this year according to NBA Wowy.
More Poor Matchups:
- San Antonio Spurs (-1.78)
- Utah Jazz (-1.70)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.23)
Best – Atlanta Hawks (+2.76)
Marvin Williams, Ersan Ilyasova, Nene, Gorgui Dieng, Amir Johnson…oh, don’t mind me, just reeling off a list of people who have scored 30 or more fantasy points against Atlanta this season. And then there are the big-time players going against Atlanta – Drummond’s 29 rebound game, Whiteside’s 23/14/4 game, Anthony Davis’ 75 (!) point game. Yeah, it’s been a busy month in Atlanta.
More Strong Matchups:
- Chicago Bulls (+2.45)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+2.11)
- Houston Rockets (+1.82)
