The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate: There are seven games in the 1:05 pm ET early slate and four games in the 7:10 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
There is a high number of high-priced pitching options today, as seven of the 22 pitchers are $8,800 or more on DraftKings. (There were eight, but Noah Syndergaard was scratched with biceps discomfort; Matt Harvey will start for him.)
Today is headlined by Chris Sale, who has been perhaps the best pitcher in baseball to begin the year: His 1.5 WAR leads the league, and he’s posted an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +10.83 across four starts. His last two have been particularly nasty:
As you might expect, his Statcast data over that time is impressive: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 190 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of just 16 percent. That said, he does have a tough matchup against a Yankees team that ranks third in the league with a .340 team wOBA and 23rd with a 19.8 percent team strikeout rate. Vegas doesn’t seem too worried about that first point, as the Yankees are currently implied for just 3.1 runs and Sale is a -168 moneyline favorite. And despite the low-ish strikeout rate of New York, Sale still leads all pitchers today with a 7.3 K Prediction. Granted, it’s not double digits — he’s been at 13, 12, and 10 actual strikeouts over his last three starts — but he’s still the class of this slate.
Corey Kluber also has a tough matchup against an Astros team that ranks ninth in the league with a .329 team wOBA. They are currently implied for 3.8 runs, which is fine on a normal slate but considerably higher than Sale’s opponent mark of 3.1. Kluber has mixed Statcast data; it includes his last two starts, which were about as opposite as starts can be. Two games ago, he finished with just 16.25 DraftKings points, allowing six earned runs and eight hits across 6.1 innings. In his most recent start, he put up 44.25 DraftKings points, allowing zero runs and just three total hits across a full nine innings. His batted ball data is right in the middle: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 200 feet, an exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. That is probably on the high side, as his most recent opponent, the White Sox, struggled to put the ball in play. He is in the early slate and will likely share high ownership with Sale. The one issue with Kluber is that his 5.8 K Prediction is his second-lowest mark since 2015.
Values
Carlos Martinez isn’t a ‘value’ on most slates at $8,900 on DraftKings, but we’ll include him here as just the sixth-highest priced pitcher of the day. He was rained out yesterday and will get the early game of the Cardinals-Blue Jays doubleheader at 1:45 pm ET. He wasn’t great in his last start, allowing five earned runs and two home runs across just five innings pitched against the Brewers. That said, that was the Brewers. They have easily been the most powerful offense in baseball this season, posting a team .231 ISO that sits nearly .30 points higher than that of any other squad. Today, he gets a Blue Jays team that ranks 25th with a .123 ISO and is currently implied for just 3.4 runs. Your opinion on Martinez will likely to come down to how you feel about the Brewers, as you’ll have to dismiss some truly awful Statcast data: Over his last two games — and mostly because of the Brewers outing — Martinez has allowed an average batted ball distance of 216 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. Pitchers with those marks have historically been very poor (per our Trends tool) . . .
. . . even when their next game seems solid (opponent run total less than 4.0):
Julio Urias is just $100 less than Martinez on DraftKings, but he’s quite cheap on FanDuel at $7,700. The 20-year-old lefty will get his first start of the year; his most recent outing was for the Triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers. He went 5.2 innings and 93 pitches. That last data point is important: Over his final 15 outings last season, Urias didn’t go over 6.0 innings once. The Dodgers have been extremely careful with him, and apparently that’s going to continue in 2017. Per the Los Angeles Times: “The Dodgers are expected to cap Urias’ innings somewhere between 160 and 180. The number has not been officially revealed, and the team is unlikely to do so. But they will continue to be cautious with his usage throughout the season.” Urias will likely pop in models: He has a respectable 6.5 K Prediction and is pitching in San Francisco, which has the best pitcher’s park in the league. Be aware, however, that he likely has limited upside due to the Dodgers’ cautious approach with him.
Fastballs
Matt Moore: He is now second in the slate (with Thor out) with a 7.1 K Prediction; he has been awful this year, posting a -6.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus across his first four starts, but those came in home/road meetings with the Rockies and Diamondbacks.
Justin Verlander: His last two starts have been disastrous, as he’s gone for 15.0 and -3.0 FanDuel points and has allowed 13 earned runs across just nine innings; those were against the high-powered Twins and Indians offenses, and he’ll likely have reduced ownership today as a result.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Given the split slate, we’ll player ratings in the Bales Model to generate a stack on DraftKings for the early slate and on FanDuel for the main one:
Over the last two days, the Detroit Tigers have gone for 19 and zero runs. Today they are implied for 4.5 runs — the fifth-highest mark in the early slate — against Seattle righty Hisashi Iwakuma, who has averaged a poor -6.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season. Detroit continues to have excellent Statcast data: Take projected No. 2 hitter Tyler Collins (per our MLB Lineups page). Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 235 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 45 percent. He hasn’t exactly crushed value — he’s averaged a -0.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games — but we have a metric for that: Recent Batted Ball Luck. Here’s the definition:
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
Collins has a high mark of 60 given his data points, and guys like Victor Martinez have also been unlucky this season.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack in the main slate belongs to the San Diego Padres:
Chase Field dominates the smaller main slate — its 10.5-run Vegas total is a full 2.0 runs higher than that of any other game — and going with the Padres is likely the way to be contrarian while still getting access to that hitter’s park:
The Diamondbacks will likely carry sky-high ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), and pivoting to the opposing Padres could be a wise move. The Padres have a nice matchup against Arizona righty Taijuan Walker, who owns a high past-year HR/9 rate of 1.976. He hasn’t been great in 2017, either: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a massive batted ball distance of 226 feet, an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 34 percent. Four of the Padres’ projected top-six batters — Manuel Margot, Cory Spangenberg, Hunter Renfroe, and Austin Hedges — are $3,000 or less on FanDuel. Fitting this high upside stack with the dominant Sale should be no problem.
Batters
Francisco Lindor has posted a poor -1.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but his Statcast data tells a much different story. Over his last 13, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 247 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 47 percent, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. Those are all incredibly elite marks, and it should come as no surprise that Lindor leads all FanDuel batters today with 10 Pro Trends. He faces off against Houston righty Mike Fiers, who has gotten hammered over his last two starts, allowing a batted ball distance of 225 feet, an exit velocity 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 43 percent, and a hard hit rate of 43 percent. A pitcher getting smashed going against a batter smashing? Sign me up.
The Diamondbacks are implied for a day-high 6.0 runs, and their batters should carry high ownership. One way to be contrarian with them is to avoid the typical 1-2-3-4 stack. That will be especially important today, as lefty Jake Lamb is projected to hit cleanup, and he has very extreme splits against right-handed pitchers: His .376 wOBA and .291 ISO against RHP represent a .116 and .154 increase over his splits against fellow lefties. He will be chalky, so maybe pivot to projected No. 5 hitter Yasmany Tomas, who has negative splits against righties but is certainly still solid: He has a .320 wOBA and .223 ISO over the last year. Their Statcast data is similar . . .
. . . but their ownership levels will almost assuredly not be. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
