Every model that I ask tells me that they love Joc Pederson. No, I’m not talking about Sports Illustrated or Victoria’s Secret, I’m referring to Fantasy Labs models. Whether it’s one of the Pro Models or one of my countless customized versions, Pederson never budges from the top of the list. I never thought to question it since he’s well on his way to the All-Star game and Rookie of the Year honors.
On a completely different and unassuming note, I made a list of the top-10 qualified hitters in terms of DraftKings points per game. From top to bottom, the list looked like this: Bryce Harper, Nelson Cruz, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Carpenter, Justin Upton, Michael Brantley, Todd Frazier and Miguel Cabrera. That’s a healthy list of sluggers (and Matt Carpenter) that cost an average of $5,100 on DraftKings.
To make the experiment relevant, I jotted down each of their numbers in the following Fantasy Labs categories: HR/AB, Bargain Rating, Plus/Minus, Consistency, Breakout and Duds. For the most part, these guys rated in the top-20 across the board among qualified batters.
Now I don’t think I’m telling any tales out of school when I say that these guys are 10 of the most accomplished hitters in the game. I had accomplished what I set out to do which was to discover who was elite in DFS and determine the baseline for what makes these hitters elite according to Fantasy Labs metrics (.025 HR/AB, 41% bargain rating, .8 +/-, 40% consistency, 13% breakout and 37% dud).
I wanted the fun to continue so I plugged each of these numbers into Fantasy Labs Trends tool as the minimum (or maximum for duds) threshold to qualify. I got a pretty lengthy list of matches which made me realize that even though my initial list was compiled of superstars, they were each average in one or more category. This drove down the standards to be a match in my study.
So I came to the conclusion that I would take the average from each of the six categories to give me a true representation of an elite hitter. To be a match in my enhanced trend, it now required .05 HR/AB, 76% bargain rating, 1.3 +/-, 46% consistency, 20% breakout and 30% dud. The return? Two players named Anthony Rizzo and Joc Pederson.
At just $3,900 on DraftKings, Pederson is truly the darling of daily fantasy baseball – and the models love him for it.
