The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Update: Robert Gsellman will start in place of Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday.
In today’s main slate, there are six pitchers priced at $9,000 or higher on FanDuel:
Noah Syndergaard is coming off a 10-strikeout, 46.0-point FanDuel performance against the Phillies, and tonight he gets another easy matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who rank 20th in the league with a .300 team wOBA. Atlanta is currently implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs, and Thor is the second-largest favorite of the night with a -193 moneyline. If we look at just those two Vegas data points, we’ll find a cohort of pitchers who have historically done well (per our Trends tool):
And that says nothing of Thor’s excellent recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 29 percent and induced ground balls at a 52 percent clip. He has a 7.5 K Prediction — the third-highest mark in the slate — and will likely be the chalk.
Other than Cole Hamels, who faces a Minnesota team currently implied for 4.1 runs, the other ‘studs’ are all in similar spots: They all face teams with run implications between 3.4 and 3.6, and all but Johnny Cueto are favorites. As a result, it’s probably wise to use other variables like Statcast data, K Prediction, and projected ownership to decide where to invest within the group.
Carlos Martinez easily owns the worst batted ball data from recent starts: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 216 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 50 percent. He also is playing in a game with a 91 percent chance of precipitation at first pitch; there’s a decent chance this game doesn’t even play. Jon Lester, on the other hand, has excellent Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 192 feet and a hard hit rate of 24 percent, and he’s induced groundballs at a 63 percent clip. Lester has been quite unlucky during that time frame, as he’s coming off a poor 14.0-point FanDuel outing in which the Reds scored five runs on nine hits across 5.2 innings. His stuff was solid; his production was not.
Update: The Blue Jays-Cardinals game has been postponed due to rain Wednesday.
That said, Lester trails the other studs with his 5.3 K Prediction. Syndergaard leads the group at 7.5, and the trio of Cueto, Martinez, and Hamels sit between 6.8 and 6.9. Hamels will almost certainly be the lowest-owned of the six, along with Rick Porcello, whom we haven’t mentioned yet, mostly because he doesn’t really have much strikeout upside and his batted ball data isn’t great. The other five at least have one or the other in their favor. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Orioles young righty Dylan Bundy has been elite to start the 2017 season, averaging a +13.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus across four starts and showing a high ceiling:
His recent Statcast data is just as good: Over his last three starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 184 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 12 percent. Today he faces a Rays team currently implied for just 3.7 runs and second in the league this season with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate; his K Prediction of 7.3 is the fourth-highest mark in the slate. He is only $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,100 on FanDuel, and he’s currently one of the highest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model for both sites. Over the last three years, there have been only 24 pitchers with those batted ball marks under $8,000 on DraftKings. If we filter that pool for players with K Predictions above 7.0, there’s only one historical match. Finally, if we filter the pool for players with opponent run totals below 4.0, there are no historical matches. Given his data, Bundy is historically cheap.
Alex Wood has posted a -3.72 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season and has yet to hit double-digit fantasy points in a start. Today he has a slate-high 8.8 K Prediction — higher than Kershaw’s, mind you — and the opposing Giants are implied for just 3.5 runs. He predictably rates well in many of our Pro Models. What gives?
First, let’s talk about our K Prediction metric. Here’s the definition:
The FantasyLabs’ strikeout prediction for a pitcher; we look at things like pitcher and hitter K rates, anticipated batters faced, and each player’s spot in the order
In today’s projected Giants lineup, outfielder Drew Stubbs, who is playing in his third game of the season, has a massive SO/AB rate. Further, Brandon Belt and Gorkys Hernandez, who were not in yesterday’s lineup, are two of the most strikeout-prone Giants on their roster. Overall, the team strikeout rate of .231 today is massively higher than what it was yesterday at .178 for Kershaw. Wood has been one of the unluckiest pitchers this year. Over his two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 195 feet and a hard hit rate of 32 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 64 percent clip. He’s allowed five runs on just 10 hits this season; that could certainly regress to a more reasonable mean.
Fastballs
Trevor Cahill: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of just 168 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 18 percent; he’s averaged a +10.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season and is just $4,200 today despite having the second-highest K Prediction (7.7) of the slate; he has a 99 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating and could be low-owned at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, who are implied for 5.4 runs.
Tyler Glasnow: He’s arguably been even unluckier than Wood; over his last two games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 186 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 13 percent, and he’s induced groundballs at a 58 percent clip; despite that, he’s averaged a poor -8.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On DraftKings, the highest-rated five-man stack for the main slate (using player ratings in the Bales Model as our guide) is a straight 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the St. Louis Cardinals:
They face Toronto righty Mat Latos, who finished with -0.75 DraftKings points in his first start of the season, allowing four earned runs and six hits across five innings pitched. He allowed an average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 40 percent; his past-year WHIP sits at a slate-worst 1.906. As mentioned above, this game looks to have brutal weather and it’s likely a stay-away game for pitchers. However, if the forecast doesn’t look quite as dire later in the day, it might be wise to roster the Cardinals in an elite matchup, especially since the bad weather will keep their ownership quite low. The Cardinals are currently implied for 4.7 runs, and the projected 2-4 hitters — Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, and Jedd Gyorko — all have elite ISOs of .225 or higher.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man non-Cardinals stack belongs to the Texas Rangers:
They face Minnesota lefty Hector Santiago, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games but faces a much tougher offense tonight. The Rangers are currently implied for 5.0 runs, and their 83 FanDuel Team Value Rating (TVR) is the best in the slate. Santiago has allowed a high 45 percent fly ball rate over his last two starts, and four of the Rangers’ top batters — Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Gomez all have fly ball rates of 45 percent or higher over their last 14 games. The wind is projected to blow out to center field, and if Santiago continues to allow fly balls the Rangers could string together some valuable home runs.
Batters
Speaking of home runs: Last night’s odd slate was the ultimate example as to why home runs rule guaranteed prize pools. The Washington-Colorado game in Coors Field last night finished with a score of 15-12. The Detroit Tigers put up 19 runs. Here’s the winning lineup from last night’s FanDuel MLB Squeeze, which had a $4 entry fee and granted $25,000 to first place:
If you’re looking for Tigers or Coors Field batters, Trea Turner, who hit for the cycle last night, is the only one you’ll find. I’m not trying to be results-oriented here — you definitely want to target games with lots of runs — but this slate and lineup show the importance of home runs. Both DraftKings and FanDuel place a lot of value on them in their scoring systems. There are guys in the lineup above who didn’t hit a home run, but many did, and you’ll likely need multiple to take down a tournament tonight.
This is where our Player Models and Statcast data can come in handy. For example, Marlins lefty Wei-Yin Chen has the seventh-highest HR/9 mark the past year at 1.607, and he’s allowed an incredibly-high 53 percent fly ball rate over his last two starts. The Phillies are implied for just 3.7 runs, but they have three guys in Cameron Rupp, Michael Saunders, and Tommy Joseph with ISOs of .250 or higher against left-handed pitchers.
Or take Tampa Bay righty Alex Cobb, who has the third-highest HR/9 rate among pitchers today at 2.018. In a batter’s park in Baltimore, he’s facing some big bats, including guys like Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado, all of whom have ISOs of .250 or higher against righties. Machado especially has impressive recent Statcast data, averaging an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 48 percent over his last 14 games.
It’s hard to predict home runs, but there are notable indicators available to Pro Subscribers in our models. Digging into advanced data on a daily basis is the best way to create sharper lineups for tournaments.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
