This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Jason Vargas: Pitcher, Royals
There’s no truly elite pitcher available on this nine-game slate, but Vargas has been doing his best impression of one recently. He’s got some excellent Statcast data over the past 15 days, with a batted ball distance differential of -21 feet, and he also leads the slate with a K Prediction of 8.0. Historically, pitchers comparable in those two metrics have had great FanDuel results (per our Trends tool):
While Vargas’ salary has spiked since the start of the season, increasing by $2,000 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, that isn’t necessarily cause for concern. Pitchers with comparable monthly price increases have historically had a near-neutral Plus/Minus on DraftKings of -0.03.
Trevor Story: Shortstop, Rockies
The Rockies are at home against the Nationals, which puts both teams squarely on the DFS radar. Unsurprisingly, these teams have the highest implied team totals on the slate (per the Vegas Dashboard):
One guy who stands out is Story, who has absolutely crushed the ball lately. He’s increased his batted ball distance by 35 feet over the last 15 days, and batters at Coors Field with comparable increases have a historical Plus/Minus on DraftKings of +2.90. If we limit the sample to include only batters with batted ball distances of at least 250 feet over the same time period (Story is at 276), the Plus/Minus balloons to +5.08. He sports a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel, which is tied for the highest mark on the Rockies.
Joey Gallo: Third Base, Rangers
It’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups using the Lineup Builder. The Rockies and Nationals may garner more ownership (which pro subscribers can check after lineup lock using the DFS Ownership Dashboard) but the top five-man stack in the Bales Player Model belongs to the Rangers:
The Texas hitter with the most Pro Trends on this slate is Gallo, who unfortunately is projected to bat eighth in the order (per our Lineups page). In a vacuum, targeting hitters at the bottom of the lineup is bad, but Gallo isn’t the typical No. 8 hitter. He’s got a recent batted ball distance of 261 feet, and batters in the bottom third of the lineup with that kind of distance have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.44 on DraftKings. If we filter for batters with comparable implied team totals, the Plus/Minus increases to +2.38. These players have also had an average ownership of only 3.5 percent, making Gallo especially appealing in guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
