This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Corey Dickerson: Outfielder, Rays
There are a ton of pitching options on this slate, so finding some cheap hitters is important if you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher. One guy who could possibly fit the bill is Dickerson. He’s been manning the leadoff spot for the Rays for most of the season and is projected to bat there again (per our Lineups page). The sample is small, but when Dickerson has batted in the top third of the lineup and his team has been implied for at least 3.8 runs (as it is today), the results have historically been outstanding (per our Trends tool):
Even if we remove the games he’s played in the past at Coors Field, the trend remains strong with a +4.50 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
He’s facing a pitcher who has struggled over the past 12 months in Jordan Zimmermann, with a 1.46 WHIP, 1.37 home runs allowed per nine innings, and 5.88 strikeouts per nine innings, all of which rank near the bottom of the slate.
Clayton Kershaw: Pitcher, Dodgers
Rostering Kershaw at his prohibitive salary will be difficult, but the high-stakes players are likely to do it. He was priced similarly for his last start against the Diamondbacks, and the sharps rostered him at a much higher rate than their low-stakes counterparts (via our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
His high ownership makes sense. Kershaw is currently a massive favorite at -267, and he also leads the slate with a K prediction of 9.6. Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and K predictions have averaged a massive +9.37 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The last pitcher to match for this trend in fact was Kershaw, who on April 14 (Friday) put up 56 FanDuel points over 8.1 terrific innings. When you consider his 82 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, it’s not a surprise that he’s one of the highest-rated pitchers in our Player Models.
Greg Bird: First Base, Yankees
Bird has gotten off to a dreadful start this season, batting only .121 over his first nine games. He has, however, started to show some signs of life, hitting his first home run of the year on Sunday, and today the Yankees have the slate’s highest implied team total (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Bird has been relatively unlucky to start the season. His Recent Batted Ball Luck Score currently stands at 36, and hitters with comparable Rec BBL Scores, implied team totals, and isolated power splits have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.91 on DraftKings.
If you’re looking to stack the Yankees with the Lineup Builder, going with Bird and some of the other batters in the middle or bottom of the order might not be a bad idea. Right now, the top five-man Yankees stack by ISO features their projected 3-5-6-7-8 hitters, who will likely have lower ownership than the players at the top of the lineup.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
