NBA

NBA Market Watch: 11/25

To me, 10+ game slates in NBA DFS present a different challenge than 10+ NFL DFS slates. In NFL, you have a full week to study the matchups and dig deep to locate where the value may be. With NBA, you obviously have a much shorter window to do basically the same amount of research. So in this article, I’m going to look at a few players on FanDuel and DraftKings who appear to be great deals for one reason or another using the pricing tools we use here at Fantasy Labs.

DraftKings

 

Gordon Hayward

Hayward’s price has dropped by $1,100 over the past month and yet his minutes have remained consistent and the Jazz have returned to more-or-less the same team as they had during the 2014-2015 campaign. Hayward has put up 32+ DraftKings points in both of his last two games and his play seems to be trending in the right direction. Hayward’s current $6,300 salary on DraftKings carries an implied point total of 27.69, which he has exceeded eight times in his last nine games.

Additional Matchup Info:

Tonight, the Jazz draw the Clippers which represents a +4.6 pace differential and a +0.7 positional Plus/Minus rating. As an added bonus, Los Angeles is on the second half of a back to back and playing their third game in four nights while Utah has played just one game since 11/20.

Here is how Gordon has performed over the past two years when his “Monthly Salary Change” has been -$500 or lower:

 

nbamarket1

 

Rudy Gay

Rudy has seen his price fall from $7,700 to $7,000 since opening night and that can mainly be attributed to on-again, off-again injury concerns. The good news is that Rudy has surpassed his current salary’s implied point total of 30.91 in nine of 13 games overall in 2015-2016. Having played 42 minutes in an overtime game against Charlotte two nights ago, Rudy seems poised for heavy minutes once again this evening.

Additional Matchup Info:

Rudy checks in as the fifth-best bargain at SF tonight on DraftKings and has the second best positional Opponent Plus/Minus rating going up against Houston. During the initial projection sweeps today, Rudy had the top-overall rating at his position and is tied with LeBron James for the highest number of Pro Trends.

Rudy’s Plus/Minus numbers when his salary is down aren’t great. However, they do include two complete duds against two of the top defensive teams, Utah and Golden State. Tonight’s matchup against Houston is on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

nbamarket2

 

DraftKings Wildcard: LaMarcus Aldridge

Even if he’s active, it’s tough to get really excited about a guy with ongoing ankle issues. Still, Aldridge has a lot going for him. His price has dropped $1,300 since opening night and his 92% Bargain Rating is the top overall score tonight on DraftKings. Although he hasn’t been great in 2015-2016, he has exceeded his current salary’s implied point total of 29.99 around 70% of the time so far this season.

 

FanDuel

 

LeBron James

Hey, here’s something you don’t see every day – the king is on sale right now. Since the season opened, LeBron’s price is down $1,000 on FanDuel, making him the fifth-most expensive player tonight. That results in a 74% Bargain Rating. Looking back on the past two seasons, LeBron has fared very well when in the following price change and bargain categories:

 

nbamarket3

 

Additional Matchup Info:

James can have a huge game against any team in the league, but tonight, he qualifies for 11 Pro Trends and benefits from a +1.1 positional Opponent Plus/Minus rating and a +1.7 Pace Differential.

 

Rajon Rondo

Rondo’s price continues to steadily rise since Opening Night, but his Bargain Rating on FanDuel shows that it may not be happening fast enough. Still only $8,400 on FanDuel against a DraftKings price tag of $9,300, Rondo’s 98% Bargain Rating on FD is the highest of the night. Regardless of who has been in or out of the Kings lineup recently, Rondo keeps on trucking for the Kings, averaging 43.62 FanDuel points over that time. That would be more than enough to justify his current price, which implies a point total of 33.63.

When Rondo’s Bargain Rating has been as good as it is tonight, he has provided an excellent value. However, it is important to note that most of these games came at a much lower price point than where he is today. You can tell that is the case by looking at his average expected points based on salary in these games, which has been 24.46.

nbamarket4

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To me, 10+ game slates in NBA DFS present a different challenge than 10+ NFL DFS slates. In NFL, you have a full week to study the matchups and dig deep to locate where the value may be. With NBA, you obviously have a much shorter window to do basically the same amount of research. So in this article, I’m going to look at a few players on FanDuel and DraftKings who appear to be great deals for one reason or another using the pricing tools we use here at Fantasy Labs.

DraftKings

 

Gordon Hayward

Hayward’s price has dropped by $1,100 over the past month and yet his minutes have remained consistent and the Jazz have returned to more-or-less the same team as they had during the 2014-2015 campaign. Hayward has put up 32+ DraftKings points in both of his last two games and his play seems to be trending in the right direction. Hayward’s current $6,300 salary on DraftKings carries an implied point total of 27.69, which he has exceeded eight times in his last nine games.

Additional Matchup Info:

Tonight, the Jazz draw the Clippers which represents a +4.6 pace differential and a +0.7 positional Plus/Minus rating. As an added bonus, Los Angeles is on the second half of a back to back and playing their third game in four nights while Utah has played just one game since 11/20.

Here is how Gordon has performed over the past two years when his “Monthly Salary Change” has been -$500 or lower:

 

nbamarket1

 

Rudy Gay

Rudy has seen his price fall from $7,700 to $7,000 since opening night and that can mainly be attributed to on-again, off-again injury concerns. The good news is that Rudy has surpassed his current salary’s implied point total of 30.91 in nine of 13 games overall in 2015-2016. Having played 42 minutes in an overtime game against Charlotte two nights ago, Rudy seems poised for heavy minutes once again this evening.

Additional Matchup Info:

Rudy checks in as the fifth-best bargain at SF tonight on DraftKings and has the second best positional Opponent Plus/Minus rating going up against Houston. During the initial projection sweeps today, Rudy had the top-overall rating at his position and is tied with LeBron James for the highest number of Pro Trends.

Rudy’s Plus/Minus numbers when his salary is down aren’t great. However, they do include two complete duds against two of the top defensive teams, Utah and Golden State. Tonight’s matchup against Houston is on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

nbamarket2

 

DraftKings Wildcard: LaMarcus Aldridge

Even if he’s active, it’s tough to get really excited about a guy with ongoing ankle issues. Still, Aldridge has a lot going for him. His price has dropped $1,300 since opening night and his 92% Bargain Rating is the top overall score tonight on DraftKings. Although he hasn’t been great in 2015-2016, he has exceeded his current salary’s implied point total of 29.99 around 70% of the time so far this season.

 

FanDuel

 

LeBron James

Hey, here’s something you don’t see every day – the king is on sale right now. Since the season opened, LeBron’s price is down $1,000 on FanDuel, making him the fifth-most expensive player tonight. That results in a 74% Bargain Rating. Looking back on the past two seasons, LeBron has fared very well when in the following price change and bargain categories:

 

nbamarket3

 

Additional Matchup Info:

James can have a huge game against any team in the league, but tonight, he qualifies for 11 Pro Trends and benefits from a +1.1 positional Opponent Plus/Minus rating and a +1.7 Pace Differential.

 

Rajon Rondo

Rondo’s price continues to steadily rise since Opening Night, but his Bargain Rating on FanDuel shows that it may not be happening fast enough. Still only $8,400 on FanDuel against a DraftKings price tag of $9,300, Rondo’s 98% Bargain Rating on FD is the highest of the night. Regardless of who has been in or out of the Kings lineup recently, Rondo keeps on trucking for the Kings, averaging 43.62 FanDuel points over that time. That would be more than enough to justify his current price, which implies a point total of 33.63.

When Rondo’s Bargain Rating has been as good as it is tonight, he has provided an excellent value. However, it is important to note that most of these games came at a much lower price point than where he is today. You can tell that is the case by looking at his average expected points based on salary in these games, which has been 24.46.

nbamarket4

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