Monday offers a two-game slate beginning at 7pm ET. Game 1 between these four teams ranged between 88 and 91 possessions, placing them in the bottom-three of the eight series played over the weekend. The Cavs and Pacers each scored over 100 points, while the Grizzles were limited to 82 points. The Grizzlies are once again double-digit underdogs implied to score less than 90 points (per the Vegas dashboard). Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Stud
Kyrie Irving is the most expensive point guard on the slate. He attempted 27 shots in the opener — the second-highest mark among all players during the first two days of the postseason. In the six minutes that LeBron James was off the court in Game 1, Irving attempted six of the team’s 10 shots and recorded a 50 percent usage rate (per the On/Off tool). That’s not far off Irving’s 42.1 percent usage rate when James was off the court during the regular season. Irving may be dealing with a lingering knee issue, but he’s still underpriced on DraftKings after averaging 42.16 DraftKings points at home this season in 34.4 minutes.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Tony Parker is the cheapest projected starting point guard, and he was able to provide 23.4 FanDuel points on Saturday in 22 minutes. Wayne Selden was switched onto Parker in the second half instead of Mike Conley, and the move didn’t impact Parker’s output. Parker shot an unsustainable 8-of-13 from the field, but in the last three home games against the Grizzlies, he has not provided less than 22.7 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
Mike Conley: He exploded for eight points, four assists, three rebounds, and two steals in the first seven minutes of Game 1. Then the Spurs placed Danny Green on Conley instead of Parker, and Conley finished the game with five more points on 2-of-11 shooting, three more assists, two more rebounds, and one more steal over the final 23 minutes. He was still able to exceed salary-based expectations, and his price tag remains at $7,200 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Shooting Guards
Stud
No shooting guard costs more than $4,700 on either site on this slate.
Values
J.R. Smith played 36.6 minutes in Game 1, and Iman Shumpert was a DNP-CD. Smith carries the highest projected floor on DraftKings at the position, but that’s because Lance Stephenson is listed as a small forward. What helps solidify Smith’s comparative floor is his playing time: Among all shooting guards, he’s projected to play at least nine more minutes than any other player. He is the only one at his position on this slate to play more than 28 minutes over the weekend.
Danny Green scored two actual points in Game 1 but was able to provide value by recording four blocks in 20 minutes. He spent a majority of the game guarding Conley — a matchup that should help ensure Green’s playing time. The Grizzlies eventually crossmatched in the second half and placed Conley on Green, limiting Green’s offensive impact.
Fast Break
Wayne Selden: If you’re going to punt the position entirely, Selden is the cheapest option on DraftKings ($2,000). He started the last game for the injured Tony Allen. It’s possible Selden may get replaced in the starting lineup by James Ennis, but he’s likely to remain in the rotation regardless.
Manu Ginobili: He was clocked in the right eye late in the first half of Game 1 and played five minutes the rest of the game. What may be perceived as low playing time by just glancing at the box score can be explained by the minor setback. And since coach Gregg Popovich emptied his bench with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter, Ginobili underperformed based on his salary.
Small Forwards
Studs
LeBron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard are the three most expensive players on the slate, and building around them as your core on DraftKings is possible given the value options at other positions. They were all in the top-five on Saturday in fantasy points (per the Ownership dashboard), and all three are expected to be excessively owned on a two-game slate. They provide the highest projected ceilings, floors, and Projected Plus/Minus values in the Player Models.
James and George both played over 40 minutes in the first game, and Leonard didn’t play in the fourth quarter. James and George found themselves guarded by the opposing point guard in multiple instances in the series opener due to the switching schemes of the defenses; J.R. Smith was the primary defender on George. Leonard was primarily guarded by Vince Carter in Game 1, and Leonard scored 32 actual points on 14 shots in 32 minutes.
James is rightfully the most expensive player on the slate, and you can’t choose all three small forwards on FanDuel. This slate will likely hinge on the combination of small forwards you select, combined with the patchwork of cheap players surrounding them.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
George: DFS Scouting Report
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Lance Stephenson has fully cemented himself in the core rotation and as the primary facilitator in the second unit. He played the entire fourth quarter in Game 1, and according to player tracking data from NBA.com, Stephenson ranked second to James Harden in average seconds per touch and average dribbles per touch during the first weekend of the playoffs. With the ball in his hands that much, his opportunity for scoring and playmaking increases, which elevates his floor.
Fast Break
C.J. Miles: He was limited to 15 minutes in Game 1 after being whistled for five fouls. Miles and Vince Carter cost less than $3,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Carter will likely continue to play more minutes than Miles, but Miles has the ability to catch fire from downtown, which could buy him more playing time with the second unit.
Power Forwards
Stud
Kevin Love is the most expensive power forward on the slate excluding Paul George, who is dual-eligible on DraftKings and likely to be the popular choice in that slot. Love was relegated to decoy status in the second half of Game 1, recording a 13.7 percent usage rate and an abysmal 3.8 percent rebound rate over the final 24 minutes. Because a majority of the salary cap is expected to be allocated to the small forwards, Love could go relatively underowned. In terms of playing time, Love was benched the final 70 seconds on Saturday for Richard Jefferson, and Love was limited to 31 minutes total.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Thaddeus Young‘s salary dropped to $4,800 on FanDuel, and he’s been the most consistent power forward over the last month on this slate. His production in the last 10 games cements his cash-game worthiness:
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge: He’s one of only three power forwards on FanDuel currently projected to play at least 30 minutes, and in four games against the Grizzlies over the last month, Aldridge has posted 37.8, 40.1, 29.2, and 30.2 FanDuel points for a +6.50 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency.
JaMychal Green: He accrued three fouls between the 10:01 and 9:00 marks of the third quarter on Saturday and never returned. Zach Randolph wasn’t much better in his 26 minutes, and since both had poor impressions in Game 1, they could get overlooked.
Centers
Stud
Marc Gasol didn’t have a good track record against the Spurs heading into the postseason, but he was the lone bright spot for the Grizzlies in the 111-82 loss on Saturday. Gasol is in a similar spot as Kevin Love: He’s the most expensive player at his position and likely to go underowned due to the small forward crop. If the field rosters LeBron, PG, and Kawhi, they’ll likely spend down at center and power forward, creating a cluster of similar lineups that potentially deviate at shooting guard.
Value
In the last two games against the Pacers, Tristan Thompson produced 22.8 and 24.1 FanDuel points. Both games occurred at home — a trend that has proven prosperous for centers facing the Pacers, as evidenced by a +6.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 81 percent Consistency (per the Trends tool). Twelve straight centers projected to play at least 18 minutes have exceeded salary-based expectations when facing the Pacers at home.
Fast Break
Pau Gasol: He costs slightly more than Tristan Thompson on DraftKings and FanDuel, and Gasol was limited to 15.0 DraftKings points in Game 1. The 11-point spread doesn’t bode well for many of the older Spurs in regard to playing time, but Gasol’s salary has dipped to a season-low $5,000 on FanDuel, and he’ll profile as a low-salary pivot off of Thompson.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
