Striking out is just about the worst thing that can happen to a hitter — other than getting hit in the head with a fastball. Failing to put the ball in play can kill a team’s momentum, and it doesn’t even give base runners the chance to advance.
Strikeouts aren’t much fun for DFS players either: They’re by far the worst possible outcome from any single at-bat. Is there ever a time to roster hitters who have a high tendency to strike out? There have been guys like Adam Dunn and Jim Thome, who hit more than enough home runs to make up for their whiffs, but what about non-superstars with high strikeout rates?
Let’s use our Trends tool to explore these high-strikeout batters.
What Constitutes a High-Strikeout Rate?
Before we can figure out if there’s a place in DFS for hitters with high-strikeout rates, we need to define what constitutes a high-strikeout rate. Since 2014 there have been 1,518 instances of a non-pitcher having at least 50 plate appearances in a season. Out of this group, the average player struck out every 0.24 at-bats. The standard deviation for this sample is 0.07.
The “68-95-99.7 Rule” states that adding and subtracting one standard deviation from a group’s mean will result in a range that covers roughly the middle 68 percent of the sample; two standard deviations, the middle 95 percent; and three standard deviations, 99.7 percent. If we look at the players one standard deviation above the mean — those in the top 16 percent of the sample — these are the players who have struck out the most. The players in the bottom 16 percent are those who have struck out the least.
Using the 68-95-99.7 Rule, we can see that low-strikeout hitters have rates between .07 and .17 and high-strikeout hitters have rates between .31 and .53.
High- vs. Low-Frequency Strikeout Hitters
How do high- and low-frequency strikeout hitters compare with each other as DFS options?
In general, the low-strikeout hitters have been superior, averaging more points per game and a higher Consistency Rating.
However, the Plus/Minus values aren’t quite as clean, suggesting that the high-strikeout hitters might more volatile than the low-strikeout hitters — and that’s what we see: The high-strikeout cohort has a 16 percent Upside Rating vs. a 13.66 percent for the low-strikeout cohort.
For safety, the low-strikeout batters are preferable; for upside, probably the high-strikeout hitters.
High- and Low-Frequency Strikeout Hitters vs. High- and Low-Frequency Strikeout Pitchers
How do these two different types of hitters do when facing high- and low-frequency strikeout pitchers? Let’s use the “Opponent SO Percentile” filter in the Trends tool to find out:
It’s clear that you should probably fade most hitters facing a high-strikeout pitcher. Both hitter groups have struggled against those pitchers, with the high-frequency strikeout group struggling just a little more.
The findings for hitters against low-strikeout pitchers are more intriguing. Although they have trailed the low-strikeout hitters in Consistency Rating, the high-strikeout hitters have nearly doubled their counterparts in Plus/Minus value. If you’re going to use high-strikeout batters, it probably makes the most sense to leverage their volatility and upside against low-strikeout pitchers.
Takeaways
Let’s go over a few DFS takeaways:
- All else being equal, hitters who don’t strike out often are preferable to hitters who do, especially if you want consistency.
- In general, hitters who don’t strike out often provide less upside than hitters who do strike out often.
- Against pitchers who strike out a lot of batters, high- and low-strikeout batters both do poorly, especially high-strikeout batters.
- Against pitchers who don’t strike out a lot of batters, high-strikeout batters have trailed low-strikeout hitters in consistency but have actually offered significantly more value and volatility.
Within our Player Models, we provide each hitter and pitcher’s strikeout rate from the past 12 months as well as month- and year-long Upside Rating. When you’re constructing rosters with our Lineup Builder, consider investing in high-strikeout hitters against low-strikeout pitchers in tournaments, where their upside and value likely outweigh their lack of consistency.
And, of course, be sure to do your own strikeout research with the FantasyLabs Tools.
