This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Connor McDavid: Center, Oilers
Tonight the Edmonton Oilers will host their first playoff game since 2006, and (in terms of splits) centers typically offer a higher Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating at home. Connor McDavid, however, has been considerably better on the road since he entered the league, with a DraftKings Plus Minus of +0.43 and a 53.3 percent Consistency Rating vs. just +0.13 and 41.5 percent at home. That said, over the last two seasons McDavid has terrorized the Sharks (per our Trends tool):
As the Oilers surge into the playoffs (8-2-0 over their last 10 games), McDavid has seen a recent spike in peripheral stats, ranking in the 50th and 97th percentiles in blocks and shots per game over the past month. He is also the slate’s most expensive centerman — even with Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin available — so it’s possible that he could have diminished ownership as DFS owners choose to pay down at the position. Probably better for guaranteed prize pools than cash games, McDavid still has tons of potential as one of the highest-rated skaters in the CSURAM88 Player Model.
Unsurprisingly, McDavid and his linemates make some strong stacks. With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
McDavid: DFS Scouting Report
Brent Burns: Defenseman, Sharks
Paying up at defenseman can be ideal (regardless of ownership) due to the peripheral floor and overall upside of the position. Brent Burns is almost always an elite peripheral, as he ranks in the 95th percentile in both shots and blocked shots over the past month. On April 6, when the Sharks and Oilers last played each other, Burns was clearly a favorite option of the sharp high-stakes GPP players (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
Burns is in another great spot today. Unlike most power play defensemen (especially those above $7,000) Burns has actually been better on the road this season, with a DraftKings Plus/Minus of +0.87 vs. +0.42 at home. On top of that, he’s been owned at a much higher rate at home than on the road (19.7 percent vs. 12.6). Today he could be available in an optimal situation with an ownership discount.
Burns: DFS Scouting Report
Devan Dubnyk: Goalie, Wild
The Wild stumbled into the playoffs with a 5-3-2 record to end the season, but they have also won four straight games and now are the slate’s top moneyline favorite (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Given the moneyline odds, Devan Dubnyk is likely to have the highest GPP ownership of the slate’s starting goaltenders: Historically, home favorite goalies have the highest ownership. However, it’s possible that Dubnyk should be approached with caution: Over the past two years, he has underperformed at home with a -0.09 Plus/Minus and 45 percent Consistency Rating (on 15.8 percent ownership!) when possessing moneyline odds of at least -150.
Dubnyk: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck, and be sure to watch our FREE Eastern Conference and Western Conference editions of Inside the Lab on our Premium Content Portal!
