One of the many keys to success in daily fantasy sports is exploiting underpriced players that are primed for a productive week. Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus metric is a great way to identify such players.
Projected Plus/Minus is the player’s median projection minus their salary-based expectation. It allows us to compare how we think a player will perform most of the time, versus what he should do based on his cost.
Below, we’ll take a look at the top option on DraftKings at each position in terms of our projected Plus/Minus rating and examine reasons why they are primed for success in this week’s matchups.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford – Projected Plus/Minus: +9.0
Projected as the fourth highest scoring quarterback of the week, Stafford sits at a very reasonable $5,400 on DraftKings.
With a matchup against the struggling Oakland pass defense – owners of an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +1.9 – Stafford and the Lions passing game find themselves in a good position to find success.
Over the past four weeks, Oakland has allowed over 20 DK points on three occasions and only Teddy Bridgewater has failed to eclipse that mark.
As our own Graham Barfield pointed out on Twitter earlier this week, Stafford has excelled in comparable matchups in the past.
By utilizing Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool, we can see that Stafford has had an average Plus/Minus of +5.86 over the past two years in these matchups.
Also coming into Week 11 with the second most Pro Trends among quarterbacks – Pro Trends are season long trends that have historically lead to value – it’s difficult to imagine Stafford not exceeding his implied point total of 13.12 DK points on Sunday.
Running Back
Charcandrick West – Projected Plus/Minus: +12.8
West’s Projected Plus/Minus of +12.8 this week is huge. And I don’t just mean in comparison to the rest of the other running backs in Week 11.
The +12.8 total is the highest Plus/Minus we’ve seen for a running back on DraftKings over the past two seasons.
For reference, here’s how the six backs with a Projected Plus/Minus greater than ten have fared over the previous couple of seasons.
Included in this batch of players are 30-point performances from Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley and Jeremy Hill. Yeah, you may want to make room for West this week. With an absurdly low price of $4,500 – 23rd among running backs this week – that shouldn’t be very difficult.
His heavy workload – he’s averaged 25 touches per game over the three previous weeks – combined with a matchup against the San Diego Chargers’ rush defense –a unit that has allowed the second most DK points this season – should make him an almost automatic entry into your cash game lineups.
Due to his obscene value, West’s ownership will be through the roof in Week 11. Any time we see a player that is projected to be as heavily owned as West will likely be, there is some merit to fading him in tournaments.
Keep in mind though, we currently have West projected for a ceiling of 28 points – second highest among all running backs. If Kansas City gets up in this game – as projected – West could see his touch count increase.
With the potential for 28-30 touches against this porous run defense, he is capable of posting the type of monster outing that could leave your lineups shut out completely if you choose to fade him across the board.
Wide Receiver
Danny Amendola – Projected Plus/Minus: +9.3
Amendola’s inflated Projected Plus/Minus makes perfect sense. He’s moving into a new, historically-productive role this week. Taking over for the always-productive, Brady-favorite Julian Edelman, we’ll have a chance to utilize Amendola without DraftKings having made any adjustment to his pricing.
Sitting at $4,000 and an implied point total of only 8.19, the question with Amendola isn’t necessarily if he will exceed value, but by how much.
Of the five wide receivers who’ve had a Projected Plus/Minus of over +8.0 in the past two seasons, the lowest actual point total any of them were able to produce was 9.4. With the cumulative group faring far, far better:
While Amendola is not necessarily a guarantee to absorb all of Edelman’s production, at this price he doesn’t really even need to. Amendola has exceeded 8.19 points in three of his previous five games with Edelman in the lineup.
In a rematch with the Buffalo Bills this week, the Patriots should have plenty of targets to go around – Brady posted 59 pass attempts in the Patriots Week 2 victory.
Brady’s propensity for peppering his slot receivers with short-range targets should make Amendola a safe, budget-friendly option in cash games this week.
Tight End
Zach Ertz – Projected Plus/Minus: +6.6
Ertz has been due for regression pretty much this entire season. Of the 16 tight ends with at least 50 targets, he is the only one that is yet to record a touchdown reception. In a nice matchup with Tampa Bay (Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0), it’s quite possible this will finally be the week.
Largely due to his lack of scoring (and thus upside), Ertz’s pricing has remained low all year. At his current discount price of $3,100, he’s a virtual lock to return value. Having not posted a game with less than 8.3 DK points in the last five weeks, Ertz is a safe bet to exceed his implied point total of 4.95 points this week.
With the amount of targets he’s getting, Ertz’s price is just too low to not consider him. If you find yourself in a bind and needing salary relief, he makes for a nice play in a game that will see the Eagles owning a 25.8 point implied team total at home against Tampa Bay.
D/ST
Philadelphia D/ST – Projected Plus/Minus: +1.0
The D/ST with the highest Projected Plus/Minus two weeks running, this opportunistic Philadelphia Eagles defense finds itself favored by six points in a matchup at home against rookie quarterback Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.
Five times over the past two seasons the Eagles D/ST have found themselves favored by six or more points at home. On these occasions they’ve not only exceeded their implied point total every time, they’ve – on average – doubled it.
Winston had been turnover free for four weeks in a row, but saw his streak come to an end last week against the Cowboys. If Philadelphia can jump out to a lead in this game as expected, this unit should find success against a Buccaneer offense averaging only 17 points per game over the previous three weeks.
