The Western Conference playoff teams are set, and the Clippers and Jazz are the only teams capable of swapping places in the standings. Over in the East, the Wizards are locked into the No. 4 seed and the rest of the seeding remains undetermined. Monday offers a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Over the last 10 games, the Nets are ranked third in pace and second in defensive efficiency. Their improvement on defense hasn’t carried over to defending point guards, however, as 10 of the past 11 point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes have exceeded salary-based expectations. Opposing centers and shooting guards have been the most impacted by the Nets’ resurgence since the start of March. That leads us to Isaiah Thomas, who checks all the boxes today: He’s a point guard versus the Nets, competing for playoff seeding, first among point guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, second among projected starting point guards in pace differential (per the Player Models), and this game has the second-highest Vegas Over/Under of the slate. When the Celtics have been implied to score at least 110 points as home favorites this season, Thomas has led his team in average Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool):
Values
Kemba Walker is officially doubtful tonight after suffering a knee injury during the closing second of Saturday’s loss. Since the Hornets have been eliminated from postseason contention, Walker will likely be given the night off. With nothing to play for, Briante Weber could get the surprise start over Brian Roberts, who has been the primary backup point guard with Ramon Sessions recovering from a knee injury. Weber and Roberts have averaged similar per-minute production with Walker off the court since the All-Star break. Keep tabs on our Matchups page for insight on the projected and confirmed starters for all teams.
The Cavs are prepared to rest Kyrie Irving on the second leg of a back-to-back set one day after he played 45 minutes. If he does rest, Deron Williams will likely start and Kay Felder will receive all if not most of the backup minutes. Williams played eight total minutes last night, so he should be ready to play into the mid-20s tonight. When Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love have been off the court this season, Felder has recorded a team-best 1.03 DraftKings points per minute; Williams ranks second on team in that regard with a 0.97 rate.
Fast Break
Ish Smith: Beno Udrih isn’t expected to play, and Reggie Jackson won’t play regardless of Udrih’s status. That means Smith and a combination of Darrun Hilliard and Stanley Johnson will get all of the minutes at point. Over the past 15 games, the Wizards have ranked in the bottom-five in defensive efficiency, yielding 111.9 points per 100 possessions.
Jeremy Lin: Lin and T.J. McConnell have provided similar production over the past 10 games, and both are more valuable on FanDuel. McConnell is $700 cheaper than Lin, which makes McConnell the quintessential cash play and Lin the leverage play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). McConnell has averaged more minutes per game and has posted similar production, but Lin carries a higher ceiling, projected usage rate, and a higher implied team point total.
Shooting Guards
Stud
The DraftKings shooting guard player pool is bereft of stud options since James Harden is listed at point guard and Giannis Antetokounmpo is dual-eligible at point guard and small forward. Bradley Beal‘s minutes will likely be limited and Klay Thompon is getting the night off. If Nicolas Batum gets his normal minutes, he’ll be a viable GPP option with the news of Walker being doubtful. When Walker has been off the court since the All-Star break, Batum has been the largest benefactor with a +12 percent usage rate differential, a +12.1 percent assist rate differential, and 1.57 DraftKings points per minute (per our On/Off tool).
Values
Klay Thompson will be rested tonight, and it’s unclear how many minutes the Warriors starters will be allowed. On Saturday, Draymond Green played 21 minutes and Thompson played 27 minutes. Matt Barnes has already been ruled out, leaving open the possibility that Ian Clark becomes a factor against a depleted Jazz team. Clark played 28 minutes off the bench on Saturday and provided 26.75 DraftKings points. Because the game doesn’t tip until 3.5 hours after the main slate locks, selecting players from either side is a tricky proposition for cash games.
As mentioned in the Ish Smith section above, the duo of Stanley Johnson and Darrun Hilliard will likey be used as backup ball-handlers when Smith is on the bench. Both reserves cost the minimum on DraftKings, and it’s possible more Pistons rest on the second leg of a back-to-back. Both Johnson and Hilliard are fine punt plays in the final game for the Pistons in The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson: He remains a solid option if Dion Waiters is unable to play. Richardson has averaged a team-high 34.9 minutes, as well as a +6.2 FanDuel Plus/Minus, since replacing Waiters in the starting lineup 11 games ago.
J.J. Redick: When the Clippers have been favored this season, Redick has provided a +4.31 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 72.2 percent Consistency.
Small Forwards
Studs
Here’s a quote from Spurs coach Gregg Popovich:
Nobody’s going to rest. Everybody’s going to play. We already rested everybody, and we have days in between [games] now.
Although no one will rest, that doesn’t mean starters won’t have their minutes capped. Kawhi Leonard‘s salary has descended to $8,500 on DraftKings for the first time since before the All-Star break. Assuming Popovich stays true to his word, we can expect Leonard to play. The minutes issue truly limits Leonard’s viability in cash games. That said, it’s also a possibility that the public will be scared off Leonard, which opens up an opportunity to snag him at low(er) ownership in GPPs.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Jimmy Butler and Paul George are dragging their teams into the postseason. Both are more valuable on FanDuel, and George is cheaper than Butler on both platforms. Compared to other options in this slate, they seem to have a safe minutes floor. Butler will have to contend with Dwyane Wade, but Rajon Rondo has been ruled out. Butler and George have averaged 49.0 DraftKings points per game over the last month, and since Lance Stephenson joined the Pacers, George has averaged 59.25 DraftKings points. Both of their teams are presently implied to score close to 110 points and are favored. Under such situations this season, Butler has averaged 43.52 FanDuel points at home and George has supplied 38.02 FanDuel points on the road. Both are close to properly priced based on how their trends have panned out this season.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Joe Ingles will likely remain in the starting lineup with Rodney Hood unavailable. Gordon Hayward has been ruled out and George Hill is officially questionable. In the only game Hayward, Hill, Hood, and Derrick Favors missed together this year, Ingles recorded 43.25 DraftKings points off the bench. Coincidentally, that game was against the Warriors. Ingles is in the same boat as the Warriors’ Ian Clark: Selecting players from either side is a tricky proposition for cash games.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert: Sean Kilpatrick is questionable for the third straight game. In the last two games with him unavailable, LeVert has played at least 25 minutes and recorded at least 27.5 DraftKings points in both occasions.
Kelly Oubre: Otto Porter is officially questionable, and Oubre started the last game in Porter’s absence. Additionally, coach Scott Brooks confirmed the Wizards’ regular starters will play limited minutes. Since the Wizards are locked into the No. 4 seed, they may act cautiously and sit Porter despite Brooks calling Porter’s back spasms a non-issue. Per Brooks: “I’m going to do what’s best for our team, not what’s best for our record.” It sounds like we could see plenty of Oubre, Brandon Jennings (in a moderate #RevengeGame), Bojan Bogdanovic, and Ian Mahinmi.
Power Forwards
Studs
Realistically, there’s a chance Draymond Green’s minutes are capped and Kevin Love rests. Neither is confirmed, and Love’s fate will likely be known prior to lock, unlike Green’s. James Johnson will likely remain in the starting lineup, and over the last three starts, he has provided 37.3, 44.5, and 35.7 FanDuel points in at least 32 minutes each time. The Heat could face a resting Cavs team, which could limit the minutes for the Heat in a blowout situation. Nevertheless, Johnson has ranked second in usage rate and assist rate since Waiters has been out of the lineup.
Values
Henry Ellenson has played at least 25 minutes in two straight games. Thanks to coach Stan Van Gundy’s transparency, it’s clear that the Pistons are prioritizing development of their younger players. Over the last two games, Aron Baynes has received two DNP-CDs, and Jon Leuer, Marcus Morris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have all sat one game. Ellenson’s salary remains the minimum on FanDuel, and the Pistons are facing a Wizards bunch that will limit the minutes of their starters and potentially sit Wall and Porter.
On DraftKings, Noah Vonleh‘s salary of $3,600 and projected playing time marks are rivaled by those of only his teammate, Maurice Harkless. Vonleh is getting an extended run as the starting power forward and backup center, and his overall production hasn’t wavered much outside of one dud against the Jazz.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon: Coach Frank Vogel said that he’ll play his players regular minutes when facing teams in the playoff race. The Bulls are in said playoff race, and they are among the worst teams at defending opposing power forwards, allowing a +3.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus to those projected to play at least 18 minutes.
Centers
Studs
When the ‘value’ play becomes the ‘stud’ play, we’ve reached the final days of the regular season. Boban Marjanovic has played at least 22 minutes in two straight games, and it’s likely he’ll receive similar playing time tonight. Per the DFS Ownership Dashboard, Marjanovic was the second-highest owned player in DraftKings GPPs on Friday at close to 47 percent on average. Yesterday, Marjanovic was the third-highest owned center in GPPs. Considering Andre Drummond‘s track record against the Wizards (-8.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus in nine chances), a team that will limit the minutes of their starters, Marjanovic once again profiles as the chalk.
Value
Montrezl Harrell and Clint Capela will run it back as value options for the second straight day. Harrell’s footing is shaky since he split backup minutes with Chinanu Onuaku on Sunday. Capela was limited to 24 minutes and was able to provide 26.2 FanDuel points. In fact, he’s played no more than 24 minutes in six of the last 10 games, and here’s his performance during that stretch:
Marjanovic is $1,900 cheaper than Capela on FanDuel and $1,600 more than Harrell on DraftKings. Robin Lopez is a potential pivot on FanDuel, but the last time he faced the Magic — a team benevolent to opposing centers — Lopez was limited to just 13.8 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan: He leads all centers with 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the last month, and over the last 10 games, Jordan has averaged a +7.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The Rockets will be without Nene and likely limit the minutes for their starters.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
