Saturday presents a five-game main slate that begins at 7pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas: 208.5 over/under, Bucks -6.5
The Bucks will clinch a spot in the postseason with a win. That motivation didn’t translatein Thursday’s 15-point loss, and nearly every player’s salary has decreased at least $300 over the past month. During that span, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a one-man unit, averaging 43.4 FanDuel points per game, nearly double that of the next Buck.
The Bucks have not yet updated the statuses of Malcolm Brogdon nor John Henson. Brogdon’s absence will extend Matthew Dellavedova‘s leash as the starter, but true to his word coach Jason Kidd limited Dellavedova to 17.42 and 20.9 minutes over the last two games while getting Gary Payton Jr. more run. In the six games Brogdon missed this season, Antetokounmpo averaged 44.83 FanDuel points and an +8.1 percent assist rate differential (per our NBA On/Off tool). In the four games Brogdon and Henson jointly missed, Antetokounmpo’s production improved to 47.4 FanDuel points and his assist rate differential jumped to +12.7 percent.
Since the All-Star break, the Sixers have allowed the second-most points in the paint and most points off turnovers on a per-game basis. Antetokounmpo ranks fifth in points in the paint and seventh in fastbreak points over the last 22 games, and this is a great matchup to accentuate his strengths. Antetokounmpo will likely be the popular play at shooting guard on FanDuel.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Dario Saric, who turns 23 today (#NarrativeStreet), is expected to remain limited to 24 minutes as he deals with plantar fasciitis. T.J. McConnell briefly exited the last game with an ankle issue, but he’ll be available to play.
McConnell has been the one constant on the Sixers lately:
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Justin Anderson have exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games, the last five of which have come with Robert Covington sidelined. Nik Stauskas has been solid as well, and he’s pulling double duty as the backup point guard.
McConnell, Stauskas, Luwawu-Cabarrot, and Anderson all possess Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent on FanDuel. Luwawu-Cabarrot has played the most minutes over the past five games, and all four are options as cheap value plays to supplement the high-priced studs.
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
Vegas: 216.5 over/under, Wizards -4
We likely won’t receive an update on Luke Babbitt until later tonight since the Heat are playing for the second straight day and will skip shootaround. James Johnson has provided 37.3 and 44.5 FanDuel points in two straight starts, and he gets a great matchup for power forwards, a group that has averaged a +4.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus against the Wizards when projected to play at least 18 minutes this season. Johnson is a solid option at power forward on both sites, and his 86 percent Bargain Rating could elevate his ownership on FanDuel.
Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside offer Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent on DraftKings, and in the first two games against the Wizards this year Whiteside averaged 47.0 DraftKings points and Dragic provided an +11.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Dragic’s playing time hasn’t deviated from 34 minutes over the past 10 games sans Dion Waiters, and Dragic has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in that duration. At 34 minutes per game, Dragic is on pace to break even at $7,300 on DraftKings and potentially underperform on FanDuel.
Whiteside has provided at least 41.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he has the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate among all projected starters. In the last two games, Whiteside was limited in the first half due to early foul trouble, and he was still able to provide value. The chief concern with Whiteside is his performance on the second leg of back-to-backs, with 39.3 percent Consistency in that situation over the past two seasons. Whiteside is averaging more minutes per game on no rest this season, but his blocks and field goal percentage noticeably dip.
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
Josh Richardson has continued to provide value as a cheap shooting guard on FanDuel, and over the past 10 games he’s provided a +5.88 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency. In all 10 games he’s been the starting shooting guard, offsetting his mediocre 0.69 FanDuel point-per-minute average with a team-high 34.7 minutes per game. The stable floor will extend his run as an option in cash games.
It’s unclear if Markieff Morris or Otto Porter Jr. will suit up. Jason Smith, Kelly Oubre and Bojan Bogdanovic will see an increase in playing time should both sit. In the five games Morris missed this season, Smith has averaged a +13.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 25.9 minutes, but he was limited to 17.0 DraftKings points in 22.6 minutes in Thursday’s win. Coach Scott Brooks preferred the services of Oubre and Bogdanovic in the second half, and the Heat generally utilize smaller lineups that could force Scott’s hand into reducing Smith’s role if Morris is unable to play. Oubre has been solid as a reserve lately, and additional minutes will make him a bargain at small forward.
When both Morris and Porter have been off the court since the All-Star break, John Wall leads the Wizards with an +8.2 percent usage rate differential and 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. Wall has oddly been limited to fewer than 32 minutes in two of the past three games, but one was a blowout loss and the other was against a non-playoff team on the road. When the Wizards have been favored at home this season, Wall has been highly successful with elevated ownership in DraftKings GPPs (per our Trends tool):
Bradley Beal and Wall have enjoyed immense success against the Heat this season, and they are the only Wizards able to make that claim. Both are also highly correlated, and the Wizards and Heat are fighting for playoff positioning. This may be the preferred game to stack in cash games, as it has the highest Vegas over/under on the main slate. Coach Brooks may be forced to shrink his rotation to eight players.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 208 over/under, Spurs -2
Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan do not have a sturdy track record against the Spurs this season, but they and Blake Griffin all possess Bargain Ratings of 99 percent on DraftKings. It’s as if you’re being dared to stack them.
In three games against the Spurs this season, Paul averaged 37.75 DraftKings points and Jordan averaged 26.75 DraftKings points. Paul was guarded by Kawhi Leonard in the last game and Danny Green the game prior. The Spurs were able to hide Tony Parker on Luc Mbah a Moute, who guarded Leonard on the other end, which is the current arrangement in our Matchups page. Griffin exceeded 40.75 DraftKings points in the two games he played, making him the safer option of the three Clippers starters. Their overall success may depend on how long the Spurs’ starters play: In Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge rested the second half.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Jordan: DFS Scouting Report
What are the chances coach Gregg Popovich uses this game as a tuneup for the postseason and plays his starters normal minutes? The Spurs are locked into the No. 2 seed, and the game begins late enough that we won’t receive timely updates, as the Spurs are playing their fourth game in five nights. Parker was a DNP-CD last night, which increases his chances of playing tonight.
Leonard may be the safest option at small forward tonight, but his standing in cash games is shaky, as it is for all the Spurs this late in the campaign. In three games against the Clippers this season, Leonard rocked a 34.2 percent usage rate (his fourth-highest mark against any team this season). I suspect coach Popovich will play this game straight, but doubt renders almost all players on both sides GPP-only options.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 202.5 over/under, Blazers -2
This game features two teams competing for playoff seeding. They faced each other on Tuesday, and the Trail Blazers started Al-Farouq Aminu ahead of Meyers Leonard, who was forced to play 24 minutes with Noah Vonleh getting into early foul trouble. It was the Rudy Gobert Massacre game.
The Jazz are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set. The statuses for George Hill and Raul Neto remain unclear, and it’s possible the Jazz rest or limit Derrick Favors or Rodney Hood, both of whom are dealing with knee soreness. All four were absent during Tuesday’s 19-point win over the Blazers.
Rudy Gobert was limited to 27 minutes last night due to foul trouble. On Tuesday, he notched 45.7 FanDuel points in 35 minutes. Gordon Hayward supplied 41.5 DraftKings points in the same game, and he appears to be getting over a left quad contusion that sidelined him in late March. When Hayward has been a road underdog, the returns have not been pleasant:
At least in this situation he’s previously had low ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock. Gobert appears to have the more favorable matchup, especially if the Blazers decide to start Aminu ahead of Leonard. Both Gobert and Hayward have Bargain Ratings of at least 86 percent on DraftKings, and the Blazers are presently only one-point favorites.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Joe Ingles has been a solid value play in his role as starter, and that may continue this evening. He’s been the primary offensive initiator when starting alongside Dante Exum, and it resulted in eight assists last night and at least four assists in 10 of the past 12 games. Shelvin Mack has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games as the backup point guard while getting at least 25 minutes in each game. If you’re looking for a contrarian punt at point guard on FanDuel, Mack fits the profile, as he costs just $100 more than the minimum.
Damian Lillard was stymied by the Jazz on Tuesday, and his salary has dropped to $8,000 on DraftKings, his lowest price point since February 15, when he cost $7,800 and produced a -5.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Jazz. C.J. McCollum‘s salary has coincidentally descended to its lowest point since the opening game of the season, when he provided 33.5 DraftKings points against the Jazz. Both guards offer significant savings on DraftKings, and they rank last at their position in Opponent Plus/Minus (per our Player Models).
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
The combination of Noah Vonleh and Al-Farouq Aminu will likely continue to receive a majority of the power forward and center minutes. Aminu has met salary-based expectations in nine straight games, playing at least 30 minutes in three straight. Vonleh comes with more risk but a cheaper salary due to his 2.75 DraftKings performance against the Jazz on Tuesday. The wings on the Blazers (Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe) are extremely cheap punt plays.
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors
Vegas: 216 over/under, Warriors -18.5
Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and E’Twaun Moore won’t play tonight. Jrue Holiday was limited to 24 minutes last night, Quinn Cook played a career-high 24 minutes and Tim Frazier was a DNP-CD. As the Grail Knight once uttered, “you must choose, but choose wisely.”
Alvin Gentry stated prior to last night’s loss:
I’d like to take a look at Quinn Cook, and see if we can find some minutes for Cheick [Diallo] and have him play some time. We’re going to take a look at the guys who haven’t been playing much.
Since the Pelicans are eliminated from postseason contention, Gentry has decided to scale down minutes for his regulars and focus on the few young players they have. I’d start with Cook and Cheick Diallo and work from there. Both may end up starting.
In the very few minutes Davis, Cousins, and Moore have been off the court since the All-Star break, Alexis Ajinca has recorded a team-best 1.26 DraftKings points per minute, and he played 27 minutes last night. Jordan Crawford is also a cheap option, specifically on FanDuel at $3,600. He played 30 minutes off the bench last night after Moore left with an ankle injury and attempted 16 shots.
The Warriors are locked into the No. 1 seed, Kevin Durant is making his return without any restrictions, and Stephen Curry has been downgraded to doubtful. Shaun Livingston will likely move into the starting lineup, and there’s no reason to overextend the Warriors’ starters over the final three games of the season. We could get a handful of Ian Clark, James Michael McAdoo, and Patrick McCaw soon.
According to coach Steve Kerr:
If [Durant] gets fatigued, I’m going to take him out. I don’t really have a number of minutes played. It’s more just how it feels for him and fatigue.
Considering Durant suffered a hyperextended left knee, he may not be fully conditioned to play his normal minutes. And with the Pelicans down Davis and Cousins the Warriors could rest more of their starters.
Here’s how the Warriors fared in games without Curry this season:
Draymond Green noticeably recorded a -13.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus in a one-game sample, and the Warriors were able to maintain their fast pace. The Warriors are currently favored by 18.5 points, but the absence of Curry makes Durant, Green, and Klay Thompson interesting choices, especially if one goes off. Thompson has been the most consistent when the Warriors have been favored by at least 10 points this season, recording a +5.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 74.5 percent Consistency. When the Warriors have been favored by 15 points, Thompson has responded with a +9.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 82.4 percent Consistency. Minutes for all the Warriors are the main concern.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Green: DFS Scouting Report
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
