Full disclosure here: I’m not that great at forecasting lines and team totals prior to Vegas releasing them each week. Lucky for me, I don’t have to be. Because Vegas odds makers rely on setting accurate lines to earn their income, I am willing to operate under the premise that they are good at what they do. There’s only so much time in each day and we need to optimize how we are using it. By utilizing the team totals and lines set by Vegas, we can quickly get a good idea of what games we may want to target each week.

While checking for the highest over/under’s of the week is a great place to start, we’ve gone a step further and identified players (by using Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool) that find themselves in game situations – based upon Vegas trends – that they’ve previously found success and may be primed to do so once again.

 

Quarterback

Tom Brady

 

Vegas Trend: Patriots as five to eight-point favorites and an implied point total of at least 27 points.

 

In the past two seasons Brady has been a five to eight point favorite with a team total of at least 27 points on eight occasions and has eclipsed his expected point total every time. Not only has he met value, he has crushed it, with an average Plus/Minus of +9.02.

Vegas anticipates the Patriots to have no problem against the Buffalo Bills defense this week, projecting them to score a league high 27.5 points. If Week 2 was any indicator – where Brady attempted a season-high 59 passes – the Patriots passing game should be primed for a solid showing.

While this week’s game against the Bills may scare some away at first glance – the Bills own an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.2, making them the second toughest matchup of the week – using Brady’s past performances as a reference, this matchup appears to be one that he should be capable of exploiting.

 

Having lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman recently, there is a bit of added risk, but Brady has shown an ability to produce regardless of the weapons surrounding him. As long as Gronk is still around, Brady and this offense should be fine.

 

Running Back

Frank Gore

 

Vegas Trend: Indianapolis as an underdog.

 

Gore’s splits as a Colt this season have been quite telling. In the four games the Colts have been an underdog, he has a Plus/Minus of +4.04. Looking at the five games Indy has been a favorite, Gore has a more pedestrian Plus/Minus of +1.69.

The increased production as an underdog can be directly correlated to Gore’s workload in these games. The veteran running back has averaged 21.25 carries when the Colts are an underdog and only 12.63 in games they are favored. The coaching staff has wisely utilized Gore in games they feel they may be outmanned, attempting to grind out a win. With Andrew Luck out and facing a Falcons offense capable of piling up points, Gore should see a heavy workload once again as the Colts will likely look to slow this game down.

While he hasn’t been an explosive player this season – his season high rushing total is only 98 yards – Gore has been consistent. Having exceeded his expected points in all four games as an underdog and carrying a $4,700 price tag, Gore deserves consideration in a week that should find his ownership levels deflated as we see Matt Hasselbeck take over for the injured Luck.

 

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green

 

Vegas Trend: Cincinnati as a road underdog.

 

After a disappointing loss on Monday night, the Bengals will travel to Arizona to take on a tough Cardinals team. Over the previous two seasons, Green has thrived in such situations, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.82.

Green has been incredibly difficult to trust this season, having exceeded his expected point total on only two occasions. Despite this, there’s reason for optimism.

 

While Andy Dalton’s overall statistics don’t vary much in games where the Bengals are road underdogs, the attention he gives Green does. As a road underdog, Green has averaged 12.43 targets per game, as opposed to 7.79 targets in every other game scenario. Green has also proven more efficient with these targets, increasing his catch rate from 60.6% to 66.7%.

Against Arizona’s strong run defense and a decent game total of 47 points, there should be plenty of opportunity for Green and the Bengals passing game. While his price and volatility make him difficult to stomach in cash games, his upside and recent struggles make him a prime GPP target.

 

Tight End

Greg Olsen

 

Vegas Trend: Panthers as a home favorite.

 

There was a time when all tight ends were viewed as volatile performers, but then Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham had to come around and spoil us. With Graham’s exile to Seattle and Gronk’s recent usage issues, it appears that we may be back to looking at the tight end position as a boom/bust situation.

That is what makes Greg Olsen particularly enticing this week. At home and a favorite, Olsen’s history indicates this may be a great week to utilize him. While posting a Plus/Minus of +5.94 over his previous nine games in such a scenario, he has also posted a Consistency Rating of 77% over this time period.

Averaging 1.5 additional targets and an additional catch per game under these game situations, Olsen remains the only real threat in Carolina’s passing game. With Washington coming to town off of a big win and the Panthers carrying their highest implied total of the season (26.3), Olsen is an elite play at the position this week.