Thursday offers a six-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s navigate.
Point Guards
Studs
John Wall and Damian Lillard are the most expensive options at their position on the slate. Both of their teams are currently favored by at least five points and implied to score at least 110 points. Lillard costs less than Wall, and since the Blazers lost Jusuf Nurkic to injury, Lillard has converted 19 of 57 shots.
Wall has been much more proficient as a road favorite this season, producing a +7.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 84.6 percent Consistency, compared to Lillard’s +3.61 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 61.5 percent Consistency when the Blazers have been favored at home. When either team has been favored by at least five points at their respective venues, Wall has supplied 56.14 DraftKings points per game to Lillard’s 46.11.
When both teams have been favored and implied to score at least 110 points, Wall gets the edge again with a Plus/Minus of +4.94, trouncing Lillard’s +1.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Wall has provided more production and consistency in similar situations, but the salary difference may be enough to shift down to Lillard in cash games since he provided 44.5 DraftKings points against the Wolves on Monday. Both guards are more valuable on DraftKings, where Lillard currently leads all point guards in projected ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). It’ll become clear who provided more leverage after the games lock by checking out the Ownership dashboard.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Jeremy Lin‘s salary continues to hover around $6,000 on FanDuel, and it’s justified given the limited minutes he plays. Over the last seven games, he’s played between 20 and 31 minutes, and during that span, he has attempted at least 10 shots in every game. The potential absence of Isaiah Whitehead could raise Lin’s floor slightly, and Lin will remain a solid cash play after providing between 25 and 38 FanDuel points in the last six games, including a 28.8 FanDuel point performance against the Magic last Saturday.
Jerian Grant will get the start with Rajon Rondo sidelined, and Michael Carter-Williams will get his second #RevengeGame in the past two weeks. Both cost the minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel, but there’s no doubt that Jimmy Butler will be the primary facilitator and playmaker. Carter-Williams provides better per-minute production compared to Grant, and with coach Fred Hoiberg running the show, you don’t really know who will get more minutes. In the two games Rondo and Wade have missed this season, Grant has been the more proficient option due to the disparity in playing time, per our Trends tool:
Dennis Schroder and Isaiah Thomas are two of the worst defenders at their position. They also don’t like each other very much after an on-court argument last postseason. When playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, Thomas has averaged 43.81 FanDuel points this year. Schroder has topped 40.0 FanDuel points in four of the last seven games, most of which were without Paul Millsap. In the first two meetings, Thomas bested Schroder in overall production. However, Schroder costs $1,200 less on FanDuel, where both provide a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio: He continues to lead all point guards with 100 percent Consistency over the last month on DraftKings and FanDuel, and over the last three games sans Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have ranked 26th in defensive efficiency, yielding 115.7 points per 100 possessions.
Elfrid Payton: After one bad game, FanDuel dropped Payton’s salary $200 despite the plus matchup. Payton recorded a triple-double against the Nets last week, and he’s arguably underpriced due to his recent productivity.
Brandon Jennings: This #RevengeGame pits Jennings against the Knicks. Jason Smith is also an ex-Knick, and he’s made nine 3-pointers in the last three games. Both Jennings ($3,500) and Smith ($3,400) are cheaper on DraftKings, and in the three occasions Jennings played more than 17 minutes over the last month, he compiled 21.5, 37.25, and 22.25 DraftKings points.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only one who may qualify as a stud since he costs $2,500 more than the next closest shooting guard on FanDuel. Jimmy Butler deserves an honorable mention due to his dual eligibility on DraftKings, but we’ll cover him later.
In three games against the Pacers this year, Antetokounmpo has averaged 48.53 FanDuel points and bottomed out at 44.1 FanDuel points — roughly three points more than today’s salary-implied point total. With Malcolm Brogdon sidelined, Antetokounmpo has seen more responsibility as a playmaker, and since the All-Star break, he has provided 1.38 FanDuel points per minute and a +3.0 percent assist rate differential with Brogdon and John Henson on the bench. His ceiling is unrivaled at his position, and his salary has decreased to $10,000 for the second time over the past month.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Evan Fournier leads all projected starting shooting guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s provided steady production over the past month, producing a 92 percent Consistency Rating across all platforms. When playing at home, Fournier has supplied a +5.44 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 68.8 percent this season. He’s not much of a GPP play due to a low ceiling, but he doesn’t offer many duds either.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Nik Stauskas continue to receive ample minutes in the Sixers’ backcourt with Sergio Rodriguez and Robert Covington sidelined. Both provide a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and over the last five games, Luwawu-Cabarrot has attempted the most shots on the team while averaging a team-high 36.3 minutes per game. During that brief period, he ranks eighth in 3-point attempts. Stauskas provides a lower ceiling at a $1,100 discount.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum: Before being somewhat limited against the Timberwolves on Monday, McCollum lit them up for 32 and 43 actual points on 27-of-38 shooting in the first two meetings. He was due for regression in the recent contest, but many of his shots are ones he normally attempts; he just missed them. If you’re fading Lillard, McCollum is a solid leverage play in GPPs. If you’re concerned about Antetokounmpo’s volatility recently, McCollum warrants consideration on both sites as a cash play.
Small Forwards
Studs
Jimmy Butler and Paul George are trying to drag their teams to the postseason. Over the past 10 games, Butler has produced a +11.14 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency, and George has provided a +9.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. Butler receives the more favorable matchup against a Sixers team he recorded 66.9 FanDuel points against on March 24th, and projected ownership currently slots him as the highest-owned small forward in GPPs.
Rondo has been ruled out with a wrist injury, and when he’s been off the court since Dwyane Wade suffered an elbow injury, Butler has averaged 1.79 DraftKings points per minute. In the two games Wade and Rondo jointly missed this season, Butler averaged 63.63 DraftKings points in 38.7 minutes and a +9.4 percent usage rate differential.
George costs $800 less than Butler on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he gets the bonus of power forward eligibility on a day where that might come in handy. He’ll likely get overshadowed by Butler, so pairing them in GPPs may be an alternative route due to George’s scorching last nine games: 52.56 DraftKings points and a +13.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Maurice Harkless has played at least 26 minutes in four straight games, and he’s seen minutes at power forward with Nurkic sidelined. Coach Terry Stotts has stripped down his rotation to eight players as the Trail Blazers cling to the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoff race. Harkless qualifies as a value play on both sites at a salary less than $4,000, and Stotts will likely rely heavily on Harkless, Allen Crabbe, and Evan Turner to fill minutes on the wing.
Terrence Ross continues to fire away, and much like last week when the Magic faced the Nets, Ross possesses the best Opponent Plus/Minus at his position and the second-highest among rotation players on the slate. He didn’t pay back his salary in that game, breaking a streak of six consecutive games, but he got back on the horse against the Cavs on Tuesday, adding 20.7 FanDuel points.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince: Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore have had their minutes limited since returning from injury, and coach Mike Budenholzer has been noncommittal about reinserting them into the starting lineup. Thabo Sefolosha remains out, and among key rotation players on the Hawks, Prince offers the lowest salary-implied point total. Shoulder Budenholzer revert to his normal rotations and starting lineup, Prince will lose some luster, especially if the Hawks aren’t limiting minutes for anyone.
Kelly Oubre: Markieff Morris is listed as questionable, which opens the door for Oubre and Jason Smith, as mentioned above. Even with Morris in the lineup, Oubre has played at least 20 minutes in nine of the last 10 games while exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine contests on FanDuel. Smith may get the start if Kristaps Porzingis is cleared to play, and the rotation may remain nine deep. When Morris missed two games after the All-Star break, Smith provided a team-best +16.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’ll get the best matchup for power forwards this season should he get the nod.
Power Forwards
Studs
The power forward player pool is rife with uncertainty at the top end: Will Kristaps Porzingis suit up? Will Paul Millsap have his minutes limit removed and will he start? Will Dario Saric remain tethered to a 24-minute limit after it was discovered he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis? For the second straight day, spending down appears to be the pragmatic route.
Values
Al-Farouq Aminu and Noah Vonleh have been the primary beneficiaries during Nurkic’s absence. They both started against the Jazz, and when the Blazers faced the Wolves on April 3rd, Aminu and Vonleh played at least 26 minutes while Meyers Leonard was limited to 12 minutes. Both Aminu and Vonleh have averaged roughly the same per-minute production with Nurkic off the court, and Aminu has seen more minutes despite primarily coming off the bench. Recalling the road favorite trend from the Wall/Lillard section, Aminu has provided a +8.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency in nine such instances this season.
Rostering Gorgui Dieng on the road is a fail-proof plan, especially on FanDuel with his 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently projected for the most minutes at his position in the Player Models, and prior to Tuesday’s blowout loss, he played at least 38 minutes in four of the past six games. Dieng contributes in all categories, which adds to his safe floor in cash games.
In the first game following the leaked Patricio Garino photo that included the infamous whiteboard, Aaron Gordon provided an epic dud of 14.0 FanDuel points in 32 minutes. Because he torched the Nets for 50.5 FanDuel points last Saturday, he deserves GPP consideration at the least. Since Jeff Green has been sidelined, Gordon has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of the six games, and he pulled down at least 15 rebounds in two of them.
Fast Break
Thaddeus Young: Is he back? After a lackluster post-All-Star break that was largely derailed due to an injured shooting wrist (which he played through), Young has cleared 21 FanDuel points in five straight games while attempting at least 12 shots in each.
Centers
Studs
Karl-Anthony Towns was unstoppable against the frontcourt of Meyers Leonard, Noah Vonleh, and Al-Farouq Aminu on Monday, producing 47.4 FanDuel points in 38.5 minutes even with the Timberwolves already eliminated from postseason contention. On Wednesday, Towns didn’t play in the fourth quarter for the fourth time all season, falling south of 30 minutes for the first time since November. Coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t strike me as one to rest or limit his player’s minutes, but he threw in the towel early in that one. Towns is the most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most expensive option on FanDuel, and when the Wolves have faced a team with a positive pace differential, Towns has provided a +4.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus — up from +0.54 with a negative pace differential.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Update: Brook Lopez is 45 points shy of becoming the Nets’ all-time leading scorer. When the Nets faced the Magic last week, Lopez attempted 22 shots and provided 42.9 FanDuel points in an epic duel with Nikola Vucevic, who added 42.7 FanDuel points in the loss. Lopez costs $1,000 less than Vucevic on FanDuel, and the Nets don’t plan on resting their vets down the stretch. Pivoting to Vucevic, who has provided a +10.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency when the Magic have been favored this season, is one way to add differentiation to your FanDuel lineups since most DFS players will spend up on Towns or save salary for cheaper options. On DraftKings, rostering both Lopez and Vucevic is one way to get mass exposure to the game with the highest Vegas Over/Under on the slate. The concerns in stacking the Magic tonight is that the Nets have limited five of their last nine opponents to less than 100 points, and over that span, they’re tied for first in defensive efficiency, allowing 98.8 points per 100 possessions.
Value
Greg Monroe has done his best replication of Clay Aiken’s 2003 single “Invisible” lately. Over the last three games, all without Brogdon, Monroe has recorded fewer than 18 DraftKings points and scored a total of 17 actual points. I have reasons for optimism: In three games against the Pacers this season, Monroe produced a season-high +14.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 47.5, 38.0, and 32.5 DraftKings points. Because Thon Maker is no longer a ceremonial starter (getting six minutes at the beginning of each half), Monroe’s fate is better tested in GPPs. Monroe ranks fourth in Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate and claims a 97 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Myles Turner: The Sophomore Slump has hit Turner hard. In a double-overtime loss to the Cavs, he posted 18.75 DraftKings points in 47 minutes — his second-highest point total in the last four games while receiving normal minutes. In three games against the Bucks, Turner averaged a -2.15 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating is 93 percent today.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
