Tuesday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guards
Studs
Russell Westbrook costs $13,600 on FanDuel — an exorbitant price. It actually may not be prohibitive in a macro sense, especially since Westbrook has averaged 63.11 FanDuel points and a +10.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 85 percent Consistency when the Thunder have been implied to score at least 107 points. Westbrook has also been a lock at home, meeting salary-based expectations 78.9 percent of the time on DraftKings and 85 percent of the time on FanDuel. Westbrook is chasing the triple-double record, and based on his lofty ceiling, he presently leads all point guards in projected ownership. On an 11-game slate, paying up for the most expensive player may not be the popular play, and his exposure across GPPs of various slates will be available in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
In his last four home games against the Timberwolves, Stephen Curry has scored 44.3, 58.5, 59.0, and 56.0 DraftKings points. The Warriors are presently favored by 13.5 points (per the Vegas dashboard), and tonight marks the first game of a back-to-back set. It’s unclear the intentions of coach Steve Kerr and the staff with regards to resting, but since tomorrow’s game is on the road, it’s possible the Warriors play close to their normal amount of minutes tonight before taking tomorrow off in Phoenix. Because the situation is murky, Curry may provide more use in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) since his ownership levels might be in flux.
The last time the Warriors faced the Timberwolves, they lost by one, and Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all played at least 35 minutes. The Warriors were favored by only five points on that night, and they’ve ranked first in defensive efficiency since that point, allowing 98.0 points per 100 possessions — 3.9 points per 100 possessions better than the nine games immediately following the All-Star break. Conversely, the Timberwolves have dropped to 27th in defensive efficiency over the last 15 games.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Green: DFS Scouting Report
John Wall returns to the Verizon Center, where he’s averaged 50.49 DraftKings points per game this season on 69.2 percent Consistency. The Wizards are currently favored at home, which improves Wall’s vitals to 51.3 DraftKings points on 75 percent Consistency. In the last three instances Wall failed to provide value, the Wizards faced the Nets, Magic, and Knicks — all three teams eliminated from postseason contention. The Hornets are one game out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, and the Wizards are jockeying for the third seed. When we isolate Wall’s performance when the Wizards are favored at home against teams with a winning percentage between 45 and 75 percent, the results improve favorably.
Values
There’s a chance Seth Curry and J.J. Barea don’t play, leaving Yogi Ferrell and Devin Harris as the lone players available in the backcourt with Wesley Matthews already listed as out. There’s also a chance Harrison Barnes and Dirk Nowitzki get the night off as well. When they get ruled out, Ferrell will likely rise in the Player Models, along with the likes of Harris, Dwight Powell, Salah Mejri, Dorian Finney-Smith, etc. Ferrell has provided at least 20.0 DraftKings points in six of the last eight games, and his salary-implied point total today is a tidy 19.65 DraftKings points. Since the beginning of March, the Kings have ranked 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.6 points per 100 possessions.
Matthew Dellavedova will presumably draw another start with Malcolm Brogdon sidelined, and over the past two games, Dellavedova has provided 19.1 and 24.0 FanDuel points in 34 minutes both times. Coach Jason Kidd has said he’ll try to keep Dellavadova’s minutes reasonable, but as long has Dellavedova is in line for steady playing time at the minimum on FanDuel, he’ll certainly warrant consideration as a punt play.
T.J. McConnell is the only healthy point guard on the Sixers, and when the Sixers faced the Nets on March 28th, McConnell produced 32.0 DraftKings points in 34.8 minutes. Even though he converted 3-of-10 shots, he missed a double-double by two points. McConnell also has an impressive streak of at least one steal in 27 straight games, and he ranks fourth since the All-Star break with 1.9 steals per game. That’s an advantageous skill, as the Nets rank 27th in turnover rate since the All-Star break, as well as third in pace at 102.88 possessions per 48 minutes.
Jameer Nelson and Will Barton have been ruled out for the second straight game. Jamal Murray will likely remain in the starting lineup, and he’ll be backed up by Emmanuel Mudiay. Both are cheap and rate well in the Phan Model. The Nuggets-Pelicans’ Over/Under of 227 is the highest mark in the 11-game slate, likely making it one of the most sought-after situations. Murray and Mudiay both provided value in the previous game, but Mudiay was more productive and received more minutes off the bench. The good thing about Murray is that he owns shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo: He’s a threat for a triple-double on a nightly basis, and he’s provided at least 39.0 DraftKings points in four straight games.
Elfrid Payton: Payton has also become a triple-double machine, and he gets one of the easiest matchups for a point guard in Kyrie Irving (per our Matchups tool). Payton’s salary of $7,900 on DraftKings is his highest of the year, but he’s a better value on FanDuel, where he provides a 90 percent Bargain Rating and 93 percent Consistency over the last month.
Shooting Guards
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo goes into the lion’s den, facing a Thunder team that has been close to league average defensively since the All-Star break. The usual caveats apply with Antetokounmpo: He’s shooting guard eligible on FanDuel and point guard and small forward eligible on DraftKings. He missed a triple-double in consecutive games by one assist, and his inconsistency will inhibit his role as a cash play. When delving into Antetokounmpo’s history against the Thunder, it turns up a +12.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus in five games on 100 percent Consistency, and in the first meeting this season, he recorded 48.5 FanDuel points.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
DeMar DeRozan scored 40 actual points against Paul George and the Pacers four days ago, but DeRozan was also limited to 30.25 DraftKings points in 29.2 minutes against the Pacers on March 19th. He’s turned into more of a creator with Kyle Lowry sidelined, handing out at least eight assists in three of the last seven games. Coach Dwane Casey has mentioned that he’d like to decrease playing time for his starters as the postseason inches closer, and that showed on Sunday when none of them played in the fourth quarter despite the Sixers pulling within six. I don’t know if this is a game in which Casey would rein in DeRozan’s minutes, but the uncertainty hurts DeRozan’s utility in cash games for the rest of the season.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Devin Harris was briefly mentioned in the point guard section. Assuming a lot of the Mavs players are ruled out, Harris may actually have to start and play substantial minutes alongside Ferrell. Harris costs the minimum on DraftKings, and he’ll likely be among the highest-owned players if the Mavs are limited to nine players available.
Jordan Crawford, or as he is known on the internet, Michael Jordan Crawford, has been a nice find for the Pelicans.
His salary won’t budge on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 10 actual points in eight straight games while attempting at least 10 shots in six of those matches.
Sean Kilpatrick costs $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and in the last three games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations while playing at least 22 minutes and attempting a total of 32 shots — the third-most on the team over that span.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier: He leads all projected starting shooting guards with a 93 percent Consistency Rating over the past month, and he’s consistently provided between 21 and 31 DraftKings points over the past eight games.
Vince Carter and Troy Daniels: The Grizzlies could be without Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green, or Tony Allen this evening. Daniels costs the minimum on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings, while Carter costs $3,900 on both platforms. Daniels has played at least 30 minutes in two straight games with Andrew Harrison out of commission, and Carter has provided low-level production in the starting lineup of late.
Small Forwards
Studs
After playing 52 minutes on Sunday, LeBron James said, “I’ll be ready to go Tuesday.” Coach Tyronn Lue canceled practice on Monday and today’s shootaround, meaning we won’t get an update on the status for the Cavs until tonight. It’s possible Lue will rest his starters tonight or in tomorrow’s nationally-televised road game against a Celtics team presently a half-game up in the standings. The Orlando Magic possess the worst Defensive Rating on the road since the All-Star break, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions, and James remains underpriced on DraftKings compared to his past-month production. Of all the players available on today’s slate, James ranks second with 56.7 DraftKings points per game over the last month, and he costs $3,300 less than Westbrook. Once word comes in that James will play, he’ll be a safety net in cash games.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Jimmy Butler has played at least 38 minutes in 10 of the past 11 games, and over the last 10 games, he’s averaged a +10.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency. Paul George has responded with a +9.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over the past 10 contests. James, Butler, and George all represent solid options at small forward, and they each make for an interesting GPP stack on DraftKings, as Butler possesses shooting guard eligibility and George claims power forward eligibility. George provided 46.3 and 27.0 DraftKings points in two March games against the Raptors, but he’s been much more reliable at home this season.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Joe Ingles will likely step into the starting lineup tonight with Rodney Hood unavailable, and in the games Hood and George Hill missed this year, Ingles contributed a +15.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 34.7 minutes per game. At $4,400 on DraftKings and FanDuel, he’ll be a nice value play at small forward. Gordon Hayward will also hold substantial value on DraftKings at $6,700, as he has boasted a +6.4 percent usage rate differential and 45.25 DraftKings points per game in the contests Hood, Hill, and Derrick Favors were unavailable, per our On/Off tool.
In a spectacular turnaround, the Nets have ranked third in defensive efficiency over the past 15 contests, yielding 101.4 points per 100 possessions. The Sixers are still implied to score 111 points as one-point favorites. Enter Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Nik Stauskas, and Justin Anderson, all of whom cost between $4,000 and $4,400 on FanDuel and $4,600 and $5,100 on DraftKings. Luwawu-Cabarrot and Stauskas are shooting guard and small forward eligible on DraftKings but only shooting guard eligible on FanDuel. Anderson is small forward eligible on FanDuel and small forward and power forward eligible on DraftKings. Luwawu-Cabarrot is the most attractive option after averaging 27.12 FanDuel points over the last four games, three of which overlapped with the absence of Robert Covington.
Fast Break
Andre Roberson: When he’s at Chesapeake Energy Arena, Roberson becomes a worthy punt option. He’s highly correlated with Westbrook, and at home, Roberson has averaged a +4.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 84.2 percent Consistency this season — the highest Consistency Rating among all players with at least 15 road games this season.
Power Forwards
Studs
Anthony Davis suffered a sprained ankle on Sunday but was able to finish the game. He also dealt with a jammed finger in the same game. He wasn’t on the most recent Pelicans injury report, a sign of his availability versus the Nuggets tonight. Over the past six games, Davis has averaged a +11.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and when the Pelicans played the Nuggets on March 26th sans DeMarcus Cousins, Davis exploded for 56.75 DraftKings points in 28.45 minutes. The recent injury scare exemplifies why Davis holds risk in cash games and why Cousins is the optimal leverage play. As mentioned in Sunday’s Breakdown, playing both isn’t damaging in GPPs, as they’ve both exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Aaron Gordon ranks third among projected starting power forwards on FanDuel with 86 percent Consistency over the last month, and he’s been absolutely unstoppable in the last two games, posting 58.7 and 50.5 FanDuel points in consecutive games while playing fewer than 37 minutes in both cases.
The Gorgui Dieng road trend is in full effect:
When he’s been on the road over the last two games, Dieng has been a solid cash play.
Power forwards perform well against the Knicks. It’s clinically proven (per our Trends tool):
Insert the O-Town dilemma: You’ll get all or nothing out of Nikola Mirotic or Bobby Portis, and they’ve played a combined 18 minutes since the All-Star break as they split minutes at power forward. Most of those minutes have gone to Mirotic, but Portis swooped in out of nowhere in the last game to outplay Mirotic 31-18 in minutes. This is clearly a GPP-only situation; it’s a toss up as to who will get more run.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge: In two games against the Grizzlies in the last two weeks, Aldridge was the leverage play with Tony Allen being the primary cover on Kawhi Leonard. Aldridge posted 39.3 and 41.0 DraftKings points in the games. Because this game doesn’t tip off until 90 minutes after lineup lock and the Spurs are essentially fixed as the No. 2 seed, Aldridge is a tricky player to peg. He’s averaged a +5.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last 10 games on 90 percent Consistency. However, since coach Gregg Popovich rested David Lee and Patty Mills on Sunday without prior warning, it’s clear that Aldridge, Leonard, Pau Gasol, and Tony Parker are targets for resting.
Kristaps Porzingis: As shown in the chart above, Bulls have allowed the fourth-highest average Plus/Minus to opposing power forwards. As long as Carmelo Anthony suits up, the game should remain close enough that Porzingis won’t sit the final 14 minutes, as he did during Sunday’s 16-point loss.
Centers
Studs
Rudy Gobert faces a team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set that has one semi-healthy center available in Meyers Leonard. Gobert has also been priced up to a season-high $9,200 on FanDuel, but he’s been incredibly consistent, becoming the only center to average 100 percent Consistency on both sites over the past month. Gobert could stumble upon 20 rebounds since the Trail Blazers’ Maurice Harkless pulled down a team-high eight rebounds last night with Leonard limited to 12 minutes. In the three games Favors, Hood, and Hill jointly sat this year, Gobert provided 38.25 DraftKings points.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
For all intents and purposes, Nikola Jokic was the point guard during Sunday’s win. He missed a triple-double by three assists. What adds to the risk in rostering Jokic tonight is his last performance against the Pelicans: 26.75 DraftKings points in 18.45 minutes. Since the All-Star break, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have averaged 6.9 personal fouls drawn per game, ranking second to only Giannis Antetokounmpo. In this case, Cousins may be the more favorable cash play, especially at a discount of $400 on FanDuel, where Cousins is listed at center and Jokic is listed at power forward.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Myles Turner and Jonas Valanciunas face each other for the second time in less than a week, and both cost $5,900 on DraftKings.
Turner has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight home games on FanDuel, where he’s recorded a +7.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus in home games this season on 86.8 percent Consistency. His recent dud may shift the public’s focus off of him. Valaciunas has maintained solid play for four straight games, and when the Raptors faced the Pacers on March 31st, Valanciunas provided 41.9 FanDuel points in less than 29 minutes.
The Mavericks are going to rest their veterans tonight or tomorrow, according to coach Rick Carlisle. As a note, the Mavs are on national television tomorrow. Matthews is listed as out, Barnes and Barea could be rested, and Nowitzki and Curry are dealing with injuries. Nerlens Noel will likely move back into the starting lineup with Matthews listed out, and he costs $4,800 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Cody Zeller: On March 18th, Zeller dominated the Wizards with 37.25 DraftKings points in 33.2 minutes. Zeller can disappear at times in the offense, but his +11.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus in three games against the Wizards this season is worthy of consideration.
Brook Lopez: He’s closing in on the Nets’ all-time team scoring record, needing 61 points to pass Buck Williams. The Nets fed him incessantly on Sunday, allowing Lopez to hoist 21 shots and seven 3-pointers. When the Nets faced the Sixers on March 28th, Lopez produced 51.25 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes, and facing the Sixers has become the easiest matchup for a center this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
