Sunday presents a seven-game main slate that begins at 6pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guard
John Wall costs slightly more than Stephen Curry, and both are more expensive on FanDuel.
When the Wizards faced the Warriors last time, Wall shot 6-of-20 and accrued 19 assists. He barely exceeded his salary-implied point total in that game, and when the Wizards have been underdogs this season Wall has averaged a -0.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 41.4 percent Consistency Ratings. He’s recorded fewer than 40 DraftKings points in five of the past eight occasions as an underdog, but he’s also hit 65.25 DraftKings points in two of those games (per our Trends tool). He perhaps warrants some exposure in guaranteed prize pools on account of his variance as an underdog.
Curry represents the pivot off Wall, as his projected ownership in DraftKings and FanDuel GPPs is presently lower. Curry’s usage rate and minutes have paled in comparison to Wall’s, and after Wall complained about the officiating in the previous game the refs may reciprocate with more favorable calls.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Goran Dragic faces the Nuggets at home. Where do I sign up? Dragic hasn’t been as consistent with Dion Waiters out of the lineup, averaging a +0.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past seven contests. According to Dragic:
When Dion is on the floor, maybe I get two or three more open spot-up shots. Now I’m more handling the ball, and those (same) shots are not available.
Nonetheless, Dragic has produced a +4.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus at home this year, and point guards facing the Nuggets have had among the most favorable matchups to date. Those projected to play at least 18 minutes have hit value with 73.1 percent Consistency on FanDuel. It’s routine at this point to find out who the Nuggets are facing and lock in the opposing point guard.
Jamal Murray will start for the injured Jameer Nelson and instantly provide value with Will Barton out as well. When Nelson and Murray have been off the court since the All-Star break, Murray has recorded 0.95 DraftKings points per minute (per our NBA On/Off tool). He costs less than $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and his shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings makes the choice that much easier.
Jeremy Lin has been steady against the Hawks in two games this season, providing an +11.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus in 26.5 minutes per game. Dennis Schroder has been even better against the Nets, averaging a +12.8 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past two seasons on 100 percent Consistency. Jose Calderon appears to be limited to roughly 10 minutes per game, and with Malcolm Delaney downgraded to doubtful Schroder’s minutes appear safe.
This could be a dueling banjos situation akin to last night’s Rondo-Schroder duel, except Lin’s minutes will likely be capped around 30 and the Nets are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Spencer Dinwiddie has registered at least 18.1 FanDuel points in four straight games, including 22.4 against the Hawks, and he costs $100 more than the minimum on FanDuel. He and Lin appear to be splitting almost all of the point guard duties, and point guards facing the Hawks this season have settled in at a +4.49 FanDuel Plus/Minus when projected to play at least 18 minutes. Just look at how well Rajon Rondo performed last night, or when Lin produced 37.8 FanDuel points against the Hawks two games earlier.
Jeff Teague is on the road against the Cavs. Something has to give since the Pacers have been avoidable all season on the road, yet point guards have torched the Cavs relentless, especially of late with Kyrie Irving being forced to guard his position with J.R. Smith back in the starting lineup (per our Matchups tool). Lance Stephenson‘s minutes will certainly be limited in his season debut with the Pacers, and Teague has averaged 44.42 DraftKings points in three games against the Cavs this season.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Patrick Beverley has been stellar against the Suns, supplying a +10.7 FanDuel Plus/Minus while meeting salary-based expectations in 10 straight games. He’s dealing with an ankle injury that could limit his mobility, but as his price point he’ll garner consideration as a GPP option at PG2.
The inconsistent Delon Wright could get extended burn during today’s game, and over the past five contests he’s posted at least 17.6 FanDuel points and 20.25 DraftKings points four times. Point guard is loaded with enough value that Wright will rightly be overlooked.
Shooting Guard
According to the Suns’ broadcast last night, Tyler Ulis is dealing with a toe issue. Devin Booker’s ankle problem likely hasn’t dissipated, but he’s the acting interim backup point guard, and he has recorded at least five assists in four straight games. Since Booker is no longer relying on just his scoring for production, he now offers a higher floor. The one worry I have revolves around a potential day of rest on the second leg of a back-to-back set. And since the Arizona Central assigned their only Suns beat reporter to cover the NCAA Final Four don’t expect updates in a timely manner.
James Harden reportedly injured his shooting wrist eight games back, and four games following the incident, he aggravated his wrist injury. Coincidentally, Harden has failed to meet salary-based expectations in four straight games. The plus matchup is enticing in this spot, and when the Rockets have been favored by at least 10 Harden has averaged 55.32 FanDuel points on 58.8 percent Consistency this year. He failed to provide at least 54 FanDuel points in six of the last eight occasions, bottoming out at 27.4 FanDuel points and failing to exceed 50 in four instances. The Suns have continued to maintain the highest foul rate since the All-Star break, and they’ve conceded a league-high 31.1 free-throw attempts per game over that duration. Does Harden use this game to add to his impressive MVP resume or does he play 30 minutes in a blowout?
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Update: Harden has been downgraded to doubtful, and if he’s unable to play then Sam Dekker could move into the starting lineup. When Harden has been off the court since the All-Star break Eric Gordon has led the Rockets with a +5.8 percent usage rate differential and Lou Williams has added 1.22 DraftKings points per minute.
Williams and Gordon both cost $4600 on FanDuel. Coach Mike D’Antoni has relied on an eight-man rotation since Ryan Anderson suffered a ankle injury, allowing Williams to play at least 29 minutes in four straight games. Since joining the Rockets, Williams has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute with Anderson off the court while Gordon has ranked second to last on the roster at 0.68. In the two games in which the Rockets have been favored by double digits, Williams has a +14.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Although Williams is considered the streakier player, his per-minute production suggests he’s the safer option.
Among all players with at least 35 home games played, Klay Thompson ranks third with 77 percent Consistency and sixth with a +6.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus. His 73 percent Consistency when the Warriors are favored by at least 10 leads the team, as does his +4.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He’s not the most expensive option at his position, but he offers a solid floor and he’s played at least 34 minutes in four straight games.
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Now that Robert Covington and Sergio Rodriguez have succumbed to injuries, the Sixers are thin on the wing and have been forced to use Nik Stauskas as the backup point guard. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot played 43 minutes on Friday and Justin Anderson played 31 minutes in the blowout loss. T.J. McConnell was limited to 28 minutes in the last game due to foul trouble, and the Sixers have added Alex Poythress to help lessen the burden on Dario Saric as the only power forward on the roster. Poythress will likely siphon playing time from Anderson, who has been moonlighting as the backup four. The Sixers will have 10 players available, but Tiago Splitter is dealing with a tight minute restriction, shortening the rotation to nine. The Raptors have ranked third in Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star break, allowing 102.2 points per 100 possessions. If you’re in dire straights for cap relief, feel free to scrounge the Sixers’ bin, which contains five players with Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent on FanDuel.
Gary Harris is another beneficiary of Nelson and Barton being ruled out. He played 40.82 minutes in the last game sans Barton, and he’s the epitome of a cash play with a nice floor and minimal variance in his production. One of the eight top shooting guards in projected minutes, Harris is the cheapest option on both sites, with a 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Small Forward
LeBron James has met salary-based expectations in two of eight games against the Pacers since the 2014-15 season on FanDuel, and he averaged 43.35 FanDuel points in both games this season. However, he’s been to the Cavs what Penny Widmore was to Desmond Hume: a constant. I suppose he’s also like Louis Stevens in the influenza musical episode of Even Stevens in that he always finds a way. To recycle a stat from Thursday’s breakdown: When James has played at least 37 minutes over the past month, he’s averaged 60.3 DraftKings points per game. The Cavs don’t appear intent on shortening James’ minutes, and his salary has been reduced quite drastically to $10,000. When James’ salary has been between $9,500-$10,500 this year, he’s averaged 53.13 DraftKings points on 73.5 percent Consistency.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Jimmy Butler, much like Senor Chang, is a man who can never die. Butler has logged at least 38 minutes in nine of the past 10 games, and he’s close enough to James in salary that paying up for the safety in James is the easy route to take in cash games, but pivoting to Butler in guaranteed prize pools could result in lower ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
When the Pacers have been implied to score at least 100 points on the road this season, Paul George, Myles Turner, and Teague have cumulatively offered a +1.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 56.8 percent Consistency. The Pacers are one of the worst road teams in the league, and George has been the lone bright spot lately away from Bankers Life Field House. George is much cheaper than James and Butler, but he also comes with more risk despite being the Pacers offense the past few weeks. The Cavs defense has been lackluster since the All-Star break, ranking 29th out of 30, and George offers multi-position eligibility on DraftKings.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Trevor Ariza provides solid minutes, a good history against the Suns, and a +7.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 88.2 percent Consistency when the Rockets have been favored by at least 10 points this season. The excessive minutes at power forward appear to be taking a toll on him, but he’s attempted at least 10 shots in six straight games. His 17 steals over the past four games are concerning for the longevity of his production, and with Harden likely unavailable Ariza will probably be the biggest loser as he’s averaged a team-worst 0.57 DraftKings points per minute with Harden off the court since the All-Star break.
Andre Iguodala has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of the past eight games on FanDuel, and his ability to contribute in every category adds a level of safety that’s only offset by the possibility of rest. I don’t know if coach Steve Kerr would resort to such tactics today with a back-to-back upcoming, but as long as Iguodala isn’t given the day off, he’s in the value range at his position.
Kelly Oubre is in the discussion as a punt play, especially if Markieff Morris is ruled out with a right ankle issue. Oubre’s minutes have steadily been around 24 over the past five games, a span in which he’s exceeded salary-based expectations each time. Jason Smith may find himself in the mix as well as a potential replacement in the starting lineup, and that might help increase the playing time for Marcin Gortat, whose salary has dipped to $4,200 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Draymond Green has gone for 50, 51.7, and 48.6 FanDuel points in his last three games against the Wizards. Power forwards and centers (the two positions Green will occupy) have averaged roughly a similar FanDuel Plus/Minus when facing the Wizards this season (+4.15).
Green: DFS Scouting Report
In the eight games in which the Pelicans have been favored with him, DeMarcus Cousins has responded with 50.4 FanDuel points on average. His salary-implied point total today is 40.01, and he’s already dominated Robin Lopez on two occasions this season. That leaves Anthony Davis likely to be guarded by Nikola Mirotic. Both Cousins and Davis are in desirable spots, and they haven’t been stepping on each other’s toes lately. Both have exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four straight contests. I can honestly say Cousins and Davis are both underpriced in conjunction with their recent performance. Davis might get the nod if it becomes a choice between the two since he’ll face off against his hometown team and likely draw Mirotic when Davis and Cousins are on the court, but rostering both in tournaments isn’t an obtuse move.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Nikola Mirotic has been surprisingly consistent of late, averaging a +11.31 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, and when the shots weren’t falling last night he added nine rebounds and five assists to the stat sheet. The Pelicans have allowed the fourth-most 3-point attempts per game since the All-Star break, and since moving into the starting lineup Mirotic has converted 53.2 percent of his 3-point tries.
Kenneth Faried entered the starting lineup the past game and exploded with 41.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes. In his new role, he is severely underpriced at $5,000 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup, having to guard Luke Babbitt on the perimeter, but Faried should receive sufficient playing time at least to meet value.
Ersan Ilyasova has been solid with Paul Millsap out of the lineup, and Ilyasova produced 24.9 and 30.1 FanDuel points in two games against the Nets in March. Millsap has since been upgraded to questionable, but if he’s ruled out Ilyasova will likely remain in the starting lineup and provide value with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and a +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Center
On zero days rest, Dwight Howard has supplied a +8.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 91.7 percent Consistency this season. Even if Paul Millsap is cleared to play, Howard will retain his viability, especially on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Howard has recorded a double-double in nine straight contests while managing to achieve at least three assists in the last three games.
When Nelson, Barton, and Darrell Arthur have been off the court since the All-Star break, Nikola Jokic has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute, up from his yearly average of 1.42. Jokic has fully turned into a GPP option due to volatility in his recent production, but with less competition to orchestrate the offense Jokic will command more offensive possessions, elevating his floor.
Brook Lopez is a coin toss when faced with a Negative Opponent Plus/Minus, and his range of outcomes in such situations has been confined between 26 and 37 FanDuel points. Coach Kenny Atkinson confirmed the team isn’t exploring options to shut down the starters, citing Lopez’s chase to become the Nets’ all-time leading scorer. Lopez is currently 89 points behind Buck Williams, and that alone should buy Lopez a few more games, even if today marks the second leg of a back-to-back set.
Jonas Valanciunas fell off the map after the All-Star break, but he’s back on the radar today.When the Raptors have been implied to score at least 110 points this season and favored by double digits, Valanciunas has averaged 29.4 FanDuel points. He’s played at least 26 minutes in the past three games, a departure from life after Ibaka, and he’s been on the court because of his production. If he’s able to maintain, the minutes won’t be a problem, and facing a Sixers team that is down to 10 players, none of whom is Joel Embiid, Valanciunas could be a proper pivot from Clint Capela at a similar price.
Here’s an angle you won’t see often: Centers at home projected to play at least 18 minutes have averaged a +6.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus when facing the Pacers this season, driving home the Pacers’ ineptitude on the road. Every listed center in March save for Dewayne Dedmon exceeded salary-based expectations when hosting the Pacers. Tristan Thompson isn’t the model of consistency, but he’s a cheap alternative to Gortat and Lopez, two centers with similar salaries and higher ownership projections on DraftKings.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
