Jay Cutler has been the ninth-best quarterback in terms of DraftKings (DK) points scored since returning from injury in Week 4, yet was priced $100 over minimum price in Week 10 and only owned in 0.4% of lineups, as projected by DFSReport.com.
Perception really does have a powerful effect on us, huh?
Not only does it dominate our day-to-day lives in many ways – what we eat, the type of car we drive, and many other mundane things we do each day – its impact on our views on risk are particularly interesting when applied to daily fantasy.
Sir David Spiegelhalter – a renowned British statistician – has noted that, based upon his research in the field, people’s responses to the area of risk are largely dominated by social and emotional factors. As a whole, people largely ignore statistical-based arguments.
Cutler is a prime example of this type of thought process. “Smokin’ Jay” is perceived as a bit of a crybaby and the type of player that folds in the face of competition. People view him as a risky fantasy play, as he has a propensity for turning the ball over.
The idea of him being pitted against a stingy St. Louis Rams pass defense – owners of an impressive -5.0 Plus/Minus – immediately struck him from consideration in most lineups this week.
The much maligned signal-caller rewarded the select few that opted to roll him out in their lineups this week, though. After throwing three touchdowns on his way to producing 24.7 DK points on Sunday, Cutler found himself seventh in quarterback scoring prior to Monday night’s game.
Complete aberration, right? Maybe not.
By utilizing Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool, we can look at Cutler’s performances against opposing teams boasting a Plus/Minus of -2.5 or better over the past two seasons. In these games, he has been surprisingly productive.
What is even more revealing is Cutler’s performance when compared to other quarterbacks in the same time frame.
Not exactly the results one would expect to see, is it?
Not only has he been cumulatively better than other quarterbacks against elite competition, he has been consistent as well, meeting his expected point total in four of the five games, while just missing it in the fifth.
Cutler is the poster-boy for perception not accurately reflecting his on-field performance – statistically speaking at least. He is generally viewed as a “bad” quarterback when spoken about in a social context, but statistically that has not been the case.
Not only has he performed admirably against elite defenses, he has actually delivered nearly identical per-game averages when comparing his games against elite competition (-2.5 or greater Plus/Minus) vs non-elite.
Cutler often appears as though he doesn’t care about much while standing on the sidelines – I’m assuming you’ve seen a meme or two that can attest to this by now – and maybe he doesn’t. It’s possible he really just doesn’t care that a defense is “good” – he’s going to challenge them anyway. Many worry that this lackadaisical attitude can lead to turnovers, and while turnovers do matter in fantasy, they don’t matter to near the degree that the public perceives them.
While his interception rate is down slightly against elite teams, he’s still throwing almost an interception per game, all while posting great fantasy numbers. Cutler’s gunslinger mentality may actually be working to his benefit in these situations, as he simply doesn’t know any better than to challenge teams that others are more apt to play it safe against.
Either way, due to the perception of Cutler being an error-prone malcontent – which he may or may not be – the previous statistics will likely fall on deaf ears.
When the public refuses to acknowledge such situations, we need to exploit them. Cutler faces another tough test against Denver this week. While we know Denver is a difficult defense on which to throw, Cutler has shown that he at least deserves consideration when you’re constructing GPP lineups next week.
Identifying these public perceptions can be a great edge in your lineup construction. Having the foresight to take a chance on a Cutler or fading Tom Brady last week when you know the public will lean one direction or another creates an opportunity – an opportunity to get a player at a reduced ownership percentage, fade an over-owned player, or just create a uniquely constructed lineup.
All of this is not to say that public perception is never correct, but identifying that perception and understanding how it will impact ownership percentages week-to-week is yet another great tool to have in your DFS tool belt.
