The main slate on DraftKings includes four games and begins at 5pm ET. The main slate on FanDuel includes three games and begins at 6pm ET.
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 202.5 over/under, Bulls -4.5
This game is included in the DraftKings main slate but not the FanDuel main slate.
Kent Bazemore and Mike Dunleavy are probable, and Paul Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha remain sidelined for the Hawks.
Bazemore was limited to 20 minutes on Wednesday after missing five games with a right knee bone bruise, and it’s likely his minutes are limited once again with him set to come off the bench. Dunleavy’s expected return from a one-game absence could slightly reduce playing time for Taurean Prince and Tim Hardaway Jr., the projected starting wings.
Dwight Howard has averaged a +6.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over the past 10 games. He’s recorded a double-double in 10 of the past 11 games, and with Millsap sidelined the past seven contests, Howard’s assist rate differential of +3.0 percent has led the Hawks’ starters. He’s the second-most expensive center on the slate, which could drive down his ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
One spot where Dennis Schroder has been solid this season is as a road underdog: In 21 instances, he’s averaged a +4.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 76.2 percent Consistency. Downside exists since coach Mike Budenholzer will bench Schroder in a game every two weeks or so, and Schroder’s salary-implied point total is on par with his average production as a road underdog this year.
In two of three games against the Hawks this season, Jimmy Butler recorded at least 57 DraftKings points. The Bulls were down by 30 points at the end of the third quarter in the other game. In seven games since Dwyane Wade injured his elbow, Butler has recorded at least 44.5 DraftKings points. Although his eye was poked during Thursday’s win, he was able to finish out the game, and he’s among the sturdiest options at his position. He is the most expensive small forward on the slate by at least $2,400, but his salary declined $400 since the last game.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
It’s Robin Lopez’s birthday, which means it’s also Brook Lopez’s birthday. Robin has produced at least 24.0 DraftKings points in five of the last six games, and even though Cristiano Felicio was available to play on Thursday, he received a DNP-CD and Lopez played 35.7 minutes. Assuming Lopez gets another 30 minutes tonight, he’s a nice value if you’re looking to go contrarian at center.
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 220.5 over/under, Magic -3
Aaron Gordon probably had the best game of his life last night, and now we have to determine if it’s safe enough to go back to the well. He was a game-time call for last night’s contest with a shoulder injury, and prior to the explosion, his production ranged from 21 to 30 FanDuel points. He’s priced at the low point of his recent range on FanDuel, and he ranks second among power forwards in projected minutes. Over the past three games (coinciding with the absence of Jeff Green), Gordon has played at least 36 minutes. Gordon’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.4 is almost double that of the next closest projected power forward, highlighting the amazing spot Gordon finds himself in today.
The last six point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Nets have recorded at least 30.4 FanDuel points. Elfrid Payton‘s salary-implied point total is 29.91 FanDuel points, and he’s been all-or-nothing recently. The plus matchup in an uptempo game certainly bodes well for GPPs.
I’m still waiting for the Terrence Ross bubble to burst, but he’s recorded at least 24.0 FanDuel points and 27.0 DraftKings points in six straight games. He ranks second on DraftKings and first on FanDuel in Opponent Plus/Minus, and with Mario Hezonja shifting from backup wing to backup power forward, Ross has played 45.5 and 37.6 minutes in the last two games in a nine-man rotation.
The Nets will be without Quincy Acy for the second straight game, and there are whispers of the veterans potentially being shut down. As currently constructed, Brook Lopez and Jeremy Lin provide the safest floors, and centers facing the Magic this season have averaged a +4.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus when projected to play at least 18 minutes. As mentioned above, it’s Lopez’s birthday, if you need a narrative angle to play him. He’s one of three centers presently projected to play at least 29 minutes in the FanDuel slate, and he’s also the cheapest among that group.
The Nets’ 11-man rotation is anything but predictable, but Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has begun to flash steady production. Playing time will always be a concern, but since the Magic start Gordon at the four, Hollis-Jefferson might see extended run as he did in the last game with Acy unavailable. That extended run resulted in 29 minutes, a lofty goal today.
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 208.5 over/under, Timberwolves -12
Who are the Kings going to rest? Tyreke Evans will likely sit, as he hasn’t been cleared to play both games of a back-to-back set yet. Arron Afflalo missed the past three games for personal reasons, and the Kings had nine players available last night. They are also playing their fifth game in seven nights, which is normally a trouble spot. However, since only five Kings played the prior four games and most of them were limited early in the season, it’s not a death knell.
Buddy Hield appears to be dealing with a thumb injury lately, and Ben McLemore has attempted double-digit field goal attempts in consecutive games. In the last seven games McLemore attempted at least 10 shots, he averaged 23.0 DraftKings points. At $3,000 on DraftKings, he’ll certainly qualify as a punt play as long as the Kings continue to rest their veterans.
Garrett Temple‘s salary has been reduced to $3,600 on DraftKings, and he’s recorded 100 percent Consistency over the past month. He might rest, but if he’s one of the few available to play, he’ll be another low-end punt play at shooting guard.
Skal Labissiere was the only King to play more than 30 minutes in the last two games, and if that trend continues, he’ll warrant sparse consideration as a GPP dart. He and Evans have led the Kings with 1.02 DraftKings points per minute since the All-Star break and Labissiere has registered a team-best 16.8 percent rebound rate during that span.
Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Gorgui Dieng are all in play in cash games today. The FanDuel center player pool has been reduced to seven players projected to play minutes in the Phan Model today, and Towns is the safest option with the highest projected ownership in FanDuel GPPs. When the Wolves played the Kings on February 27th, Towns registered 60.25 DraftKings points in 38 minutes. Rubio is one of two points guards to not produce a Dud over the past month, but his salary has skyrocketed an additional $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel over that span, limiting his overall appeal in cash games since he’s close to appropriately priced. Dieng’s minutes have stabilized with the absence of Nemanja Bjelica, and he missed out on a triple-double by four assists on Thursday.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
When the Timberwolves have faced a team with a neutral or negative pace differential this season, Andrew Wiggins has recorded a -3.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 47.4 percent Consistency. It’s the worst mark among starters. Conversely, Wiggins’ third-highest career FanDuel Plus/Minus has come against the Kings. In 10 games, he’s sported a +7.64 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency, and when the Timberwolves faced the new-look Kings on February 27th, Wiggins scored 41.3 FanDuel points.
Kris Dunn’s mini-run as a value play may have dried up due to the salary increase, but it appears he will continue to receive more minutes than starter Brandon Rush. With the steals Dunn provides, he’ll certainly maintain traction in GPPs, and because the Wolves are favored by double figures, it’s possible he gets close to 30 minutes again simply for garbage time. That last bit may not have any bearing on Rubio, Wiggins, Dieng, and Towns since coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t really play to the score and doesn’t remove them when the game is out of reach. You can expect all four to remain in the game even well into the fourth quarter, regardless of the score.
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 222 over/under, Blazers -11
The Suns have yet to update the status of Leandro Barbosa, and it’s possible Dragan Bender could return as early as today. For a team that has been relying on an eight-man rotation, they may finally be able to dish out minutes in a more manageable fashion.
Recently, coach Earl Watson has used a three-man rotation at center, mainly necessitated by foul trouble to his two primary centers. Marquese Chriss’ playing time has also wavered due to foul trouble, and that will hurt his value in cash games. Because the Blazers will be thin at center, this is a spot to potentially take a chance on Chriss, Alan Williams, or Alex Len in GPPs. Williams leads the Suns with a 21.1 percent rebound rate since the All-Star break, but his recent playing time has been limited.
Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker will likely continue to receive close to 40 minutes per game, and Booker has attempted at least 20 shots in seven of the past 10 games. It’s obvious Ulis has begun to tire with all the games at or above 40 minutes, but as long as he’s getting the minutes, he remains a safe investment. Ulis has played at least 38 minutes in eight of the last nine games, and in six of those he produced at least 34.8 FanDuel points. His salary-implied point total on FanDuel rests at 25.96 points.
Jusuf Nurkic will miss the remainder of the regular season. The Blazers are already without Ed Davis, leaving Meyers Leonard as the presumptive starting center. Remember how he fared in two starts before Nurkic supplanted him? Leonard recorded 14 and 18.25 DraftKings points in 24 and 23 minutes. Of course, Davis and Nurkic were splitting minutes with Leonard, who costs the minimum on DraftKings and profiles as a popular play.
Leonard’s minutes have been limited recently due to a lingering hip issue. Still, Leonard, Noah Vonleh, and Al-Farouq Aminu are good bets to share the 96 minutes at power forward and center. Because the Suns deploy non-traditional lineups, this could be a game where Maurice Harkless slots up to power forward on occasion, which would allow Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe additional minutes on the wing. In essence, almost all of the Blazers are in play, especially on FanDuel, where Leonard and Turner are the only Blazers without a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent. It helps that the Suns play at the fastest pace in the league — roughly 106.35 possessions per 48 minutes since Eric Bledsoe was shut down.
When Nurkic has been off the court since the All-Star break, Damian Lillard (41.2 percent) and C.J. McCollum (33.8 percent) have led the Blazers in usage rate. Their per-minute production has also increased: Lillard improved from 1.24 to 1.52 and McCollum improved from 0.85 to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute sans Nurkic. Aminu’s +3.0 percent rebound rate differential and Lillard’s + 5.4 assist rate differential with Nurkic on the bench are team-highs.
Lillard is the second point guard on the slate to possess 100 percent Consistency over the past month. He’ll offer immense safety, and point guards with a salary of at least $8,000 on FanDuel averaged 45.63 FanDuel points against the Suns in March. That included a 47.2 FanDuel point performance by Lillard on March 12th.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
In four straight games against the Suns, McCollum hasn’t recorded fewer than 37.5 DraftKings points. Booker is projected for more minutes and a higher usage rate, leaving McCollum as a viable pivot off of Booker at $100 more, especially if you’re worried about Booker potentially getting another night off.
Shooting guard is such a dire position today that Crabbe may claim significance as a SG2 punt play on FanDuel despite his scoring-dependent production. Crabbe has been leaps better at home this season, converting 51.1 percent of his overall attempts and 50.0 percent of his 3-pointers at the Moda Center. Conversely, Crabbe has made 42.1 percent of his shots and 37.6 percent of his 3-pointers on the road.
News Updates
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