Friday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Vegas: 230 Total, Warriors -8
The Rockets visit the Warriors today for their fourth meeting of the year; the Rockets won the first meeting at Oracle 132-127 in double overtime, and the Warriors beat the Rockets in Houston each of the last two games. The most recent one came just this past Tuesday, and the total finished at 219 points.
The Warriors have boasted an excellent defense all year, but they’ve been especially focused on that end since the All-Star break (without Kevin Durant), ranking first in defensive efficiency during that time and allowing just 98.6 points per 100 possessions. Their last three games have come against Western Conference playoff foes, and they’ve held the Grizzlies, Rockets, and Spurs to just 94, 106, and 98 points. Looking at how the Rockets have performed fantasy-wise against the Warriors this season, it’s a whole lot of red (per our Trends tool):
James Harden is the only Rocket this year to play in more than one game against the Warriors and average a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus. Harden has shown an elite ceiling even against the Warriors’ strong defense:
- 12/1: 75.25 DraftKing points
- 1/20: 42.25 DraftKings points
- 3/28: 61.25 DraftKings points
There’s no denying his utility in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but 1) the Rockets are locked into the No. 3 seed in the playoffs and 2) he’s dealing with a hurt wrist. He denies that it will keep him out, and he is likely thinking about the MVP award at this point, but there is little to be gained from pushing tonight.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
In Tuesday’s game, both Trevor Ariza and Clint Capela were able to meet salary-based expectations, scoring 35.0 and 30.8 DraftKings points. Capela has a nice role as Harden’s pick-and-roll buddy, and he is actually a tough matchup for the Warriors’ slower centers, especially Zaza Pachulia. He made 9-of-10 shots from the field on Tuesday — mostly all out of the PnR with Harden — and remains cheap today at $5,600 on FanDuel, where he has an 81 percent Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends, which Pro subscribers can access in our Player Models. Ariza has posted at least 34 FanDuel points in each of his last three games, and while they’ve all been up-tempo (he’s better in those) his current production is unsustainable: He has 15 steals over his last three games.
Other guys like Lou Williams are in play because of their low price points — Williams is $4,600 on FanDuel, and Eric Gordon is $4,800 — but they have capped each other’s ceilings of late, and this is a brutal matchup versus the league’s best defense. Lou still has massive usage and has GPP upside — he put up 39.6 FanDuel points on 15 shots just three games ago versus the Thunder — but over the last three seasons he’s really struggled against Golden State’s length and quickness on the perimeter: Over eight games, he’s gone over 27 FanDuel points just once (34.4 on 11/4/16).
The Warriors, on the other hand, have shown a lot of green performances against the Rockets this season:
Their Big 4 of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala all had incredible performances on Tuesday, posting FanDuel Plus/Minus values of +11.2, +9.9, +8.1, and +8.3. There’s little reason to think that they can’t perform similarly today at home, but motivation is key here as well: The Warriors just locked down the Spurs on Wednesday, and they’re now essentially locked into the NBA’s top-overall seed: Per fivethirtyeight.com, they currently have a >99% chance of getting the No. 1 seed. There’s no indication that they’ll rest players today, but what motivation do they have to exert themselves?
That said, they showed their immense ceilings against this very team on Tuesday, and they’re still relatively affordable on DraftKings. Iguodala especially stands out at $4,600, and Curry also boasts a strong Bargain Rating there (93 percent), leading the team with 11 Pro Trends. He’s looked a little more like his old self of late:
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Point Guards
Stud
The Denver Nuggets remain the worst team in the league versus opposing FanDuel point guards, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +6.44 on 75.8 percent Consistency:
Kemba Walker gets them today, and he did not disappoint in his first meeting against the Nuggets this season, putting up 42.8 FanDuel points in 37.9 minutes earlier this month on the road. He also has a couple other trends in his favor today: In 10 games this season in which Kemba has been at home and the Vegas spread has been close (three points either way), he’s produced an +8.07 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. Kemba is a much better value on FanDuel today, as his low $7,600 price tag comes with a position-high 14 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He will likely be one of the most popular options in the slate, and his exposure across GPPs of various slates will be available in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Value
The Cavaliers have been the fifth-worst team on FanDuel against opposing PGs, allowing a +4.7 Plus/Minus, and they actually hold the No. 1 ranking on DraftKings, allowing a miserable +5.2 Plus/Minus on 66 percent Consistency to the position. The Cavs defense has been a train wreck of late: They rank 29th since the All-Star break in defensive efficiency, allowing 112.7 points per 100 possessions. T.J. McConnell gets the Cavs today, and he’s been excellent of late, averaging a +4.40 Plus/Minus on FanDuel on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He has been playing large minutes — he’s gone 37.1 and 34.8 in the last two games without Sergio Rodriguez, who will be out again with a hamstring issue — and is still very cheap at only $5,600 on FanDuel, where he has 12 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook: Faces the top-ranked Spurs defense, but has still averaged 61.88 DraftKings points against them this season and has taken a combined 70 shots over his last two games
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Ish Smith: Remains the starter in Detroit, as Reggie Jackson is a strong candidate to be shut down for the rest of the year; Smith has averaged a +6.38 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games and has gone at least 31 minutes in each of his last three sans Jackson
Update: Malcolm Brogdon has been ruled out, which means that Matthew Dellavedova will likely draw the start. Here’s what our News page has to say about the situation.
Brogdon will not play vs. the Pistons on Friday as he deals with reoccurring back issues, and it’s likely that Matthew Dellavedova will step into the starting lineup. However, when Dellavedova started two games Brogdon missed earlier in March, he averaged a FantasyLabs’ -0.1 DraftKings 26.2 minutes per game, and Jason Terry averaged more minutes and DraftKings points than Dellavedova during that stretch. Dellavedova costs $3200 on DraftKings and $3500 on FanDuel, but he has a low ceiling with Giannis Antetokounmpo as the primary facilitator in the second unit, and Terry’s presence could limit Dellavedova’s minutes.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Harden is clearly the top option, and it’s hard to find another high-priced stud worthy of exposure in GPPs given matchups: DeMar DeRozan has really struggled against Paul George and the Pacers; he put up just 27.6 FanDuel points in their first meeting this year. Bradley Beal gets the Utah Jazz, and Giannis Antetokounmpo gets a Detroit team that has given him fits this year: He’s averaged a -6.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus against them in their three meetings this season. That said, that average is brought down by a poor 24.8-point performance in February; in the other two games, he put up 42.6 and 44.0 points — both would exceed his 42.2-point expectation today at his $10,100 price tag. All of these guys will likely have low ownership because of the value available at the position and Harden’s inclusion in the slate, and Giannis as usual owns the position’s second-highest projected ceiling.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Value
The 76ers’ depth is currently lacking, as Rodriguez (hamstring), Jahlil Okafor (knee), and Robert Covington (knee) are all out today against the Cavaliers. That should open up a lot of minutes on the wing: Per the NBA On/Off tool, in the only game this season sans Rodriguez and Covington, McConnell played 37.1 minutes, Nik Stauskas played 35.5 minutes, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot played 32.5 minutes. Stauskas definitely isn’t an efficient player — he’s averaging just 0.60 FanDuel points per minute on the year — but it’s hard to fade him at his incredibly low $3,800 price. In that one game without those wing players, Stauskas scored 29.5 FanDuel points and posted a +15.6 Plus/Minus. Minutes often trump talent:
Fast Break
Jordan Crawford: Has averaged a +6.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games; he’s averaging 0.85 FanDuel points per minute more than Stauskas and will likely have lower ownership
Gary Harris: Remains affordable at only $5,500 on DraftKings, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating; he has reverse home/road splits this season, hitting value in 73.7 percent of away games
Small Forwards
Stud
Philadelphia has been elite against opposing SFs this year, as evidenced by LeBron James‘ poor -2.02 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings against the 76ers. However, that is likely entirely due to the defense of Robert Covington, who ranks first among all NBA SFs this season with an elite +4.08 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Without Covington, there’s no one on the 76ers roster who can handle LeBron, and the defense will likely take a huge hit: Per nbawowy.com, the 76ers have allowed a miserable 114.4 points/100 without Covington and Embiid on the floor. As such, there is a blowout risk, although the Cavs’ 11.5-point opening spread did move down to just 9.5 points. LeBron has been fine in these situations, however: In 27 games as a favorite of at least eight points, LeBron has averaged a +6.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency. He’s averaged 61.0 DraftKings points against the 76ers in two meetings this season, and that was with Covington and Embiid. LeBron could certainly be the No. 1 fantasy performer of the night.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Terrence Ross is another player with uninspiring efficiency — he’s averaging 0.73 FanDuel points per minute on the year — but he’s playing massive minutes of late: He went 45.5 minutes on Wednesday against the Thunder, and he’s scored at least 24 FanDuel points in each of his last five games. He remains cheap at only $4,400 on FanDuel, which means he needs just 17.18 points to hit value; he’s been easily above that lately. His matchup against Avery Bradley isn’t ideal (per our Matchups tool), but the Celtics have actually been somewhat poor against opposing wings this season, ranking as the fifth-worst team in the league against opposing SGs, allowing a +4.07 Plus/Minus on 61 percent Consistency. That might be a little inflated by Devin Booker‘s 91.6-point performance earlier this week — but they did give up 91.6 points to Booker, so maybe that’s warranted.
Fast Break
Paul George: Has taken at least 17 shots in nine of the last 10 games; has averaged a +5.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over that same time frame
George: DFS Scouting Report
Gordon Hayward: Has averaged 41.39 DraftKings points, a +7.35 Plus/Minus, and an 83.3 percent Consistency Rating in 18 games this season with a spread no great than three points
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Stud
Despite some tough matchups recently — he’s faced the slow-paced Mavericks, Jazz, and Grizzlies over the last five games — Anthony Davis has still been able to hit salary-based expectations. In fact, over his last 10 games he has averaged a +7.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency, and he’s taken at least 21 shots in three of his last four games. He has averaged 55.0 DraftKings points against the Sacramento Kings this season, and it’s likely that he will be underowned today for a couple reasons: There are clear cheap value plays thanks to injuries, the Kings play at a slow pace, and the DeMarcus Cousins #RevengeGame narrative will be very popular. Given that Davis’ projected DraftKings ceiling is the position’s highest (higher than Cousins’ actually), he could pay off in a big way in GPPs. In the eight games this season in which the Pelicans have been implied for at least 110 points, Davis has averaged 59.19 DraftKings points and a +9.29 Plus/Minus on 75 percent Consistency.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Richaun Holmes has averaged a +7.80 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games, and he should continue to start at center for the 76ers with Okafor ruled out again. He showed a nice ceiling on Wednesday, scoring 39.1 FanDuel points thanks to 25 real points on 11-of-16 shooting against a Hawks defense that ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing just 103.3 points/100 on the year. And now he gets a reeling Cavs defense that has been awful since the All-Star break, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency and allowing 112.7 points/100. As you might expect, the Cavs have been bad against all positions over the last two months:
They’ve been best against PFs, which seems bad for Holmes, but that’s misleading: Holmes has played about 97 percent of his minutes at center this season, despite the fact that both sites list him as a PF. Thankfully, our Opponent Plus/Minus metric in Player Models adjust for a player’s true positional splits.
Fast Break
Zach Randolph: Has scored at least 27 FanDuel points in each of his last three games, and the Grizzlies will be without Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green; the Mavericks rank dead last in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 46.5 percent of the available boards
Brandan Wright: Ditto; he’s only $3,400 on DraftKings
Centers
Stud
As mentioned above, DeMarcus Cousins is playing his old team, the Sacramento Kings, for the first time since they traded him away to the Pelicans. There’s obviously no history or trend I can put together to show why Cousins is a solid play; this is a unique situation. He’s scored 58.2, 49.2, and 72.4 FanDuel points over his last three games, and he’s taken at least 19 shots over that time frame. The Kings rank 27th in defensive efficiency since trading him, allowing 110.7 points/100, and they rank 29th in rebound rate over that same time, grabbing only 47.2 percent of the available boards. Put simply: Cousins is easily one of the highest-rated FanDuel players in the Phan Model, but he’ll also carry immense ownership. Is it worth it? Probably.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Value
The Houston guys will likely be the chalky value plays, and there’s no real value currently outside of those guys at the center position. For that reason, I’m going to call Rudy Gobert a “value” — and you can’t stop me. He continues to crush value on DraftKings: He’s averaged a stupid +11.45 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He was limited against the lowly Kings on Wednesday but still ended up with 16 points and 15 rebounds on only eight shots in 34.2 minutes of action. Today he has another nice matchup against a Wizards team that ranks 19th in rebound rate since the All-Star break, grabbing only 49.3 percent of the boards. He had his best game of the year against the Wizards back in February, putting up a 54.0 DraftKings performance on only 5.8 percent ownership.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Fast Break
Andre Drummond: Has averaged a poor -1.22 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 50 percent Consistency over his last 10 games, but he’s facing the Bucks, who rank 28th in rebound rate since the All-Star break, grabbing just 47.4 percent of the available boards
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
