Monday brings a seven-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
This game has easily the highest Vegas total of the slate at 236.5 points, which is a whopping 14 points higher than that of any other game. That said, these two teams just played on Saturday and the game finished 109-105: A grand total of 214 points. That’s not terrible, but it’s obviously lower than today’s implication, and if it goes under again, there’s a good chance that other high-total games like Thunder-Warriors and Clippers-Knicks could go undervalued in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). It is an important game regardless of your thoughts on it hitting expectations or not.
In that game on Saturday, James Harden was still able to smash value despite the Rockets scoring only 109 points:
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
In the two games against the Nuggets this year, it has been the big guys that have consistently hit value:
They have cut into each other’s minutes, but they’ve still been able to hit value on the respective site where they continue to be undervalued: Nene still has a high Bargain Rating (86 percent) on DraftKings . . .
. . . whereas Clint Capela has an 81 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel:
Patrick Beverley is an interesting player: Denver has been the worst team in the league against opposing PGs this season . . .
. . . but he’s actually struggled in this matchup. My theory is that Beverley is not actually the PG of the Rockets — Harden is, and he likely benefits the most from Denver’s overall poor metrics. As you probably know, they rank eighth in pace this season, averaging 100.4 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.3 points per 100 possessions. Given those numbers, just about any player projected for 25-plus minutes deserves consideration in GPPs — and especially guys who can get hot from the 3-point line like Eric Gordon, Lou Williams, and Ryan Anderson.
The Rockets and Nuggets rank first and third in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break, scoring 115.4 and 112.7 points per 100 possessions. That, plus their high pace, is why the total is so high. There’s a lot of offensive scoring power in this game, and some of the guys on Denver’s side are relatively cheap compared to their possible role today. Darrell Arthur has already been ruled out with a sore left knee, and Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are currently questionable with ailments of their own. Mason Plumlee and Juancho Hernangomez have gotten starts in place of those guys, and at only $6,100 and $3,700 on FanDuel they will likely be popular cash-game plays if those guys can’t go.
Update: Gallinari and Chandler have been ruled out.
Per the NBA On/Off tool, they’ve been excellent values in the last couple of games without those guys:
Nikola Jokic is another intriguing player for today’s slate. Considering his talent, the Vegas total of this game, and this matchup . . .
Jokic should be a chalky play. And he may not be considering this is his past-10-day performance:
His minutes haven’t been great lately . . .
. . . but Saturday’s dud was due to foul trouble. He’ll likely get to 30 minutes tonight if that doesn’t happen again, and there’s a solid chance that this game will be much closer to its over/under if he’s able to facilitate more of the offense.
And for that reason, I’m a little bearish on Jameer Nelson. He was the best player for the Nuggets on Saturday, putting up 39.9 FanDuel points in 39.4 minutes, but Jokic will (hopefully) facilitate more today and the matchup against Beverley still isn’t great:
If you want to target some wings, instead look toward Gary Harris and Will Barton. Harris profiles more as a cash-game play because of his limited ceiling, but he has been solid lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10. Barton put up a dud on Saturday, scoring just 18.2 FanDuel points, but, more importantly, he’s playing huge minutes off the bench right now:
A lot depends on the status of the questionable guys, but there’s upside here. Harris and Barton are both more valuable on FanDuel, where their salaries of $6,000 and $5,800 come with Bargain Ratings of 81 and 100 percent. For what it’s worth, Barton is the 12th guy in our database to have a Bargain Rating of 100 percent. That means, given his extreme salary of $7,300 on DraftKings, you should probably roster him tonight only on FanDuel.
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook remains at historic salary levels — he’s $13,300 on DraftKings and $13,400 on FanDuel — and yet he’s still been able to exceed salary-based expectations:
Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a ridiculous +9.53 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. He has a tough matchup against a Golden State squad that ranks second in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing just 101.3 points/100, but he’s been just fine against them this year:
And if you need a larger sample, Westbrook has averaged 57.7 FanDuel points against top-five defenses this season — and that includes a game against Memphis in which he was ejected in the first half and finished with only 25 FanDuel points.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Kemba Walker has been very bad lately, scoring just 25.4 and 12.2 FanDuel points in 34.2 and 30.0 minutes over his last two games:
Still, he is averaging a +2.82 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10, and his minutes have remained steady. Further, his price is down now to $8,000, and he gets a supreme matchup against an Atlanta squad that has now become the second-best matchup for PGs:
Kemba has averaged 39.1 FanDuel points against them this season, and his low FanDuel salary requires just 32.98 points to hit value today.
Point guard is loaded today, but Kemba should be a popular mid-tier option down from Westbrook given the elite matchup and steady minutes.
John Wall has also seen a dip in salary of late . . .
. . . despite averaging a +2.43 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. Opposing PG Isaiah Thomas is probable to play tonight with a right knee bone bruise after missing the last two games, and that’s a bonus for Wall, as Thomas ranks literally dead last out of 458 NBA players with a -4.31 Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Adam Levitan discussed late-season NBA strategy in a recent screencast, and one of his points was to identify situations in which players are motivated. The Celtics and Wizards are 1.5 games apart and are vying for home-court advantage in the second round. Wall and company should be dialed in.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
Harden and the Denver guys will certainly be the most popular SG options in the slate, but let’s identify a couple more GPP targets.
If you want to completely punt on the position, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, one of the 76ers’ first-rounds picks in the 2016 draft, should continue to start and see close to 30 minutes. He has been largely inefficient — he’s averaging just 0.57 FanDuel points per minute on the year — but he’s also just $3,800 on both sites. It’s hard to not hit value at that salary when you’re playing close to 30 minutes; he’s been able to do just that:
Further, he’s faced three tough teams in a row in the Celtics, Mavericks, and Warriors; today, he gets a nice matchup against the Magic, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 107.8 points/100. He’s certainly not a sexy play, but he can afford you Harden and/or Westbrook.
Despite the Warriors’ excellent defense — again, they rank second in efficiency and allow just 101.3 points/100 — Victor Oladipo has exceeded salary-based expectations in all three of their meetings this season:
He’s put up some duds lately, but his minutes and shot attempts have been very steady.
And on the other side of that game, Klay Thompson is probably the only SG in the slate that realistically could put up a ceiling game that could match one of Harden’s. He has been somewhat disappointing of late . . .
. . . and against the Thunder this season . . .
. . . but you might recall this game from last May:
That version of Klay could still be lurking somewhere.
Klay: DFS Scouting Report
Small Forwards
The top studs are all in brutal spots, but thankfully there are quite a few interesting value plays at SF tonight. Let’s start with Taurean Prince, who was drafted 12th overall in the 2016 NBA Draft by the Utah Jazz and then became a part of the three-team trade involving Jeff Teague and George Hill. Prince is now with Atlanta, and he’s actually been getting solid minutes of late (due to the injury of Kent Bazemore):
Charlotte isn’t exactly an easy matchup — they rank eighth in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.0 points/100 — but, like with Luwawu-Cabarrot, it’s difficult to ignore a $3,700 price tag for a player projected for 30-ish minutes. Prince is averaging a slightly-better 0.72 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s shown he can fill up the box score in a variety of ways: He’s blocked seven shots over the past two games.
Here is the Jazz’s injury situation, per the NBA News feed:
Joe Ingles will likely be a popular option if Rodney Hood is ruled out, but also don’t forget about Joe Johnson, who will likely continue to start at the PF spot during Derrick Favor‘s absence. In the six games that Favors has missed since the All-Star break, Johnson has averaged 20.0 DraftKings points and a +3.6 Plus/Minus in 28.5 minutes per game.
Again, that is not incredible production, but he’s also just $3,900 on FanDuel, which means he requires just 14.98 points to hit value. He’s been able to do that fairly consistently over the last 10 games:
And if you want to pay up for a SF, Carmelo Anthony has a brutal matchup against the Clippers . . .
. . . but he’s actually been seeing nice minutes . . .
. . . and he’s performed very well against the Clippers already this year:
Carmelo: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Another important piece of news from our feed:
Now that Joel Embiid is out for the year and Nerlens Noel is with Dallas, Richaun Holmes could be the only true center on the roster if Jahlil Okafor is ruled out with a sore right knee. Holmes has absolutely crushed value of late, averaging a +7.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency over his last 10:
Further, he has an amazing matchup against the Magic, who have been the third-worst team in the league versus opposing centers this year:
I know what you’re probably thinking: “But Holmes is listed as a PF!” Good point. Thankfully, our Opponent Plus/Minus metric is adjusted for actual positional splits. Despite his DFS position, Holmes is very much a center: Per basketball-reference.com, he has played 98 percent of his minutes at center this year. Holmes’ +4.51 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel isn’t a fluke.
Ersan Ilyasova is an interesting pivot in GPPs from Holmes: He is projected to start for the injured Paul Millsap, and he got 27.2 minutes on Saturday:
People will likely chase those points: He hit four of his five 3-pointers on Saturday en route to 34.3 FanDuel points. It’s questionable how many minutes he’ll play today, but he could be lower owned than Holmes if Okafor is out. And it’s hard to deny that he doesn’t have upside if he does get the minutes: Charlotte has allowed 31.4 3-point attempts per game this season, which is easily the worst mark in the league.
If you want to pay up, Jokic will certainly be the popular choice in this high-total game. If you want to pivot, it’s difficult to find a player to get excited about: The next two highest-priced guys are Blake Griffin and Draymond Green, both of whom haven’t shown high ceilings lately. Blake has mostly just been awful:
Over the last 10 games, he’s averaging a putrid -5.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 30 percent Consistency. The case for him isn’t tough to make, however: He should be low-owned give his terrible play of late, and he gets the Knicks, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.6 points/100. He crushed value against the Knicks in their first meeting this year . . .
. . . and he remains especially cheap on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Centers
Rudy Gobert has been dominant lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last 10 games and averaging a +5.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus over that time.
Over the five games he’s played sans Favors since the All-Star break, he’s averaged 39.35 DraftKings points and a +6.0 Plus/Minus in 36.3 minutes per game. He gets a great matchup against an Indiana squad that ranks 26th in rebound rate this season, grabbing just 48.3 percent of the available boards. Per the NBA Trends tool, Gobert has averaged 39.59 DraftKings points on impressive 81.8 percent Consistency this year versus bottom-five rebounding teams.
He should be a very popular option today at just $7,200 on DraftKings.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Right below him in salary sits DeAndre Jordan ($6,900), who has been the rare Clipper to play well lately:
He is on a rebounding tear of late — he’s grabbed at least 17 boards in three of his last four games — and gets a Knicks squad that ranks dead last in defensive rebound rate, grabbing only 74.1 percent of the available boards. Jordan absolutely demolished them in their first meeting this year . . .
. . . and he will look to continue his dominant ways tonight. He comes with 10 DraftKings Pro Trends, a 93 percent Bargain Rating, and a huge +4.03 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight.
If Nikola Vucevic is able to go tonight, he will be in a very nice spot against a 76ers team that has been the worst squad versus opposing centers this year:
He is currently questionable with a right Achilles issue and wasn’t able to practice yesterday. He’s been amazing of late, averaging a +6.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
If he’s unable to suit up, Bismack Biyombo will likely get the start: He’s averaged 35.1 minutes per game in the four recent games Vuc has missed due to this Achilles issue. He would immediately become an immensely popular value play, and he’d drastically affect the value of the higher-end guys listed above. Also, make sure to monitor the situation with Okafor: Holmes is a vastly superior defender and would be a tougher matchup than if Okafor was able to go.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
