Sunday brings a five-game main slate at 6pm ET. Because it’s a small slate, let’s jump straight into positions.
Point Guards
Ricky Rubio finally fell below salary-based expectations on Friday, putting up only 33.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Miami Heat. Still, he’s been excellent over the last 10 games, averaging a ridiculous +10.52 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency:
He has another tough matchup against a Pelicans team that has been the fourth-best defense since the All-Star break, allowing just 101.9 points per 100 possessions.
That said, Rubio has crushed against good teams lately (per our Trends tool):
He should be a popular option in the short slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where he has eight Pro Trends a piece (accessible for Pro subscribers in our Player Models).
Despite Rubio’s excellence over the last two months, he’s actually $100 cheaper than Goran Dragic on DraftKings. Dragic will likely go lower-owned as a result of Rubio’s production and price point, which makes him intriguing in guaranteed prize pools. (Pro subscribers can check out his ownership shortly after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.)
Dragic’s been very solid over his last two games, scoring 46.75 and 48.25 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves and Pelicans — two excellent defenses of late.
Dragic gets Portland and Damian Lillard, who ranks 71st out of 89 eligible PGs with a -1.82 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. He performed very well against them earlier this season, putting up 42.75 DraftKings points and a +10.6 Plus/Minus.
Jordan Clarkson has been playing huge minutes lately . . .
The matchup today against the Cavaliers is tough to analyze: Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love sat out last night versus the Clippers. Apparently Kyrie was unable to go regardless because of left knee tightness, and he’s currently questionable to play today. LeBron and Love will presumably start. The Cavs have been the third-worst team against opposing PGs this season . . .
. . . but a lot of that is probably due to Irving’s defense: He ranks 70th out of 89 PGs with a -1.82 DRPM.
Shooting Guards
There’s a clear salary tier at the top of the SG position with DeMar DeRozan and CJ McCollum. The former has been very disappointing of late, despite enjoying a lot of usage after Kyle Lowry‘s injury.
DeRozan has averaged a putrid -5.48 Plus/Minus on 30 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. Unfortunately, his performance likely won’t improve against the Pacers and Paul George, who remains an excellent wing defender (per our Matchups tool):
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Thus, McCollum might be the SG to pay up for today: He’s averaged a nice +3.98 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games . . .
. . . and he’s done it in largely tough spots on the road:
That said, he has struggled this season as a Vegas dog on the road:
The pickings are incredibly slim in this slate when it comes to punt SGs. And on a normal day, Jordan Crawford would be very slim. That said, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in every game this season with the Pelicans and has averaged a +4.75 Plus/Minus over that time.
We’re projecting him for only 23-25 minutes, but he’s also only $3,500 on FanDuel, where he has nine Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Given the matchups and his recent play, he’s one of the few SGs who looks like a possible cash-game option, which says a lot about the position on the slate. Note, however, that Clarkson has dual PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings, and Nick Young, despite putting up a -3.46 Plus/Minus over his last 10 . . .
. . . could be an intriguing GPP option with a higher ceiling. The Lakers are 11.5-point home dogs against the Cavs, and Young could have some garbage time upside.
Small Forwards
While Young and the Lakers may not be affected by the large spread of the Lakers-Cavs game — they’re huge dogs in every game now — LeBron James and company certainly come with risk. He did crush value against the Lakers in their first meeting this year, putting up 56.25 DraftKings points and a +9.60 Plus/Minus:
And, overall, LeBron has crushed this season as a double-digit favorite:
He has averaged 56.06 DraftKings points and a +8.85 Plus/Minus on 81.3 percent Consistency in 16 such instances this season. Those trends are certainly encouraging signs, but it’s also March 19: Cavs coach Ty Lue is clearly trying to take it easy on LeBron, and thus that trend might be a bit unrepresentative of today’s affair. Still, LeBron did rest last night and there aren’t many players worth paying up for today.
James: DFS Scouting Report
On the other side of that game, Brandon Ingram is similar to Crawford in that he has a limited ceiling and scary floor against LeBron, but he’s also only $4,400 on FanDuel and is projected for 35 minutes. That’s hard to turn down, especially when he’s averaged a +6.72 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
Being a double-digit dog isn’t great, but the Lakers have shown that they’ll give their young wing run no matter the game script:
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis is a much better value at DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been a little up and down lately, but he’s actually averaged a +2.40 Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency.
That may seem like unexciting production, but it’s actually fairly impressive given his high salaries and the presence of DeMarcus Cousins:
Outside of a couple shortened games due to injuries (which is always a possibility with Brow), he’s been below 47 DraftKings points just twice in the past 11 games. He has a tough matchup against a Timberwolves team that has ranked ninth in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, allowing 103.7 points/100, but he has shown elite upside in this very matchup already a couple times this year:
He’s averaged 67.63 DraftKings points and a +17.98 Plus/Minus in these two contests; that seems like nice upside.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
LaMarcus Aldridge had a scary medical issue a couple weeks ago with his heart, and it was questionable whether he would even be able to return this season. Thankfully, he was able return quickly and has since played two games for the Spurs. There’s upside with Aldridge, as people are likely still scared of rostering him because of his medical issues, despite the fact that he’s played 32-plus minutes in each of his last two games since returning:
He gets a nice matchup today against a Kings team that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.5 points/100. The Kings do play at a slow place — they rank 24th in pace, averaging 97.0 possessions per 48 minutes — but that’s not a huge issue for Aldridge: The Spurs rank 25th in pace, averaging 96.9 possessions/48. Aldridge has a nice $6,300 salary on DraftKings, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating and only 13-16 percent projected ownership.
James Johnson is an interesting player in Aldridge’s salary range: He’s down at $5,800 on DraftKings, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in 72 percent of his games over the past month. His minutes have dipped a little bit, but he’s still been solid, averaging a +3.08 Plus/Minus over his last 10:
He has a nice matchup against a Portland team that ranks 11th in pace, averaging 99.6 possessions/48, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.7 points/100. As a mirror of McCollum’s trend, Johnson has been excellent as a home favorite this year, averaging 30.65 DraftKings points and a +5.70 Plus/Minus on 73.3 percent Consistency:
Centers
Jusuf Nurkic continues to be a revelation in Portland: He’s averaged a ridiculous +10.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
Further, he gets a Miami team in the bottom 10 against opposing centers this season:
Despite having Hassan Whiteside and an excellent overall defense, they still have been poor against centers and average rebounding the ball, grabbing only 50.1 percent of the available boards on the year. Nurkic should be an incredibly popular play today, and for good reason:
On the other side of that game, Whiteside isn’t a bad pivot in GPPs: He doesn’t seem like a consistent DFS option, but he’s been exactly that lately, averaging a +4.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over the last 10 games.
Nurkic has been a solid defender since coming to Portland, but Whiteside has shown he can rise to the occasion against tough matchups this season:
Whiteside has immense upside when he’s on his game.
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
Finally, Ivica Zubac should remain a popular punt play. The Lakers have shut down Timofey Mozgov to make room for Zubac to get more minutes, and he’s responded with solid games lately:
He remains only $4,300 on FanDuel, where he has nine Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. As mentioned in many breakdowns lately, guys with high Bargain Ratings on FanDuel have been excellent values this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
