This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Draymond Green was thrust into the Warriors starting lineup shortly before the 2014 season thanks to a David Lee leg injury. Since then, Green’s ability to play position-less basketball has revolutionized the Warriors offense and defense on their way to two consecutive NBA Finals appearances. Green has emerged as one of the best defensive players in the league, and his ability to dribble and protect the rim has enabled the Warriors to take the league by storm with small-ball lineups. This two-way ability has helped him average 38.49 DraftKings points per game (PPG) this season.
Statistical Breakdown
Green has continued to rack up assists and rebounds through 63 games this season, but the arrival of Kevin Durant has limited Green’s offensive opportunities.
Overall, he’s averaged just 8.6 field goal attempts per game this season — his fewest since 2013. Still, he’s made up for his lack of offense with some spectacular defensive play. Per NBA.com, Green has averaged a career-high 1.5 blocks and 2.2 steals per game and has allowed opponents to shoot just 40.3 percent against him.
Trends
Home/Away
Green has routinely performed better at Oracle Arena (per our Trends tool):
Green hasn’t been bad on the road, but he’s clearly been the more valuable DFS asset at home. This trend has been even more pronounced this season:
With a +1.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential and 63 percent Consistency Rating, Green has averaged nearly two more fantasy points at home this season — and his ownership has been higher on the road. He’s more than capable of reaching his salary-implied total wherever he plays, although he’s offered more consistent value at home without an ownership premium.
Salary Decrease
Green tends to get offended fairly easily by NBA personnel and media alike. It’s unlikely that he gets upset when his DraftKings salary drops by $500 or more in a month, but we shouldn’t put it past him based on the following trend since 2014:
He’s taken this trend to another level this season:
The four-game sample is small, but it’s clear that Green has consistently crushed after a sharp salary drop.
Potential Blowouts
The Warriors are frequently heavy Vegas favorites. Still, Green has managed to perform up to his salary-based expectations in these situations over the past three seasons:
The Warriors have been favored by 10-plus points in 42 of Green’s 63 games this season, but he’s continued to perform well:
Green’s ability to affect games in a multitude of ways has helped him produce his usual stat line as a heavy favorite. He’s also played plenty of minutes regardless of the Warriors’ opponent, clocking 28-plus minutes in 53 of his 63 games this season.
Without Durant
Durant suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee and will likely miss the rest of the regular season. The Warriors have played just seven games without him at the time of this writing, and Green has somewhat taken advantage of his increased offensive role:
His average of 41.61 DraftKings PPG is well above his season average, but Green’s 42.9 percent Consistency is subpar. A closer look at his last seven games reveals that his PPG average is mostly the result of his 20-point, eight-rebound, eight-assist, four-steal, six-block performance against the 76ers:
Green hasn’t been terrible without Durant, but he’s been a bit of a roller coaster, especially since his inconsistent play hasn’t suited his DraftKings salary: He’s been priced at a season-high $8,200 in three games without Durant.
Salary Sweet Spot
Green has been priced tightly on DraftKings this season, with a low of $7,200 and a high of $8,200. His salary has been at $7,700 or higher in six straight games following the Durant injury. Given that Green has averaged 38.49 DraftKings PPG this season, his implied salary is about $8,200. As of now, Green is priced at roughly market value on DraftKings.
He has also been priced tightly on FanDuel this season, with low of $7,200 and a high of $8,500. Like DraftKings, FanDuel has also priced Green over $8,000 in five of his last seven games. Green’s average of 35.77 FanDuel PPG this season implies a salary of about $8,600. While he doesn’t offer positional flexibility on FanDuel, that’s where he’s underpriced at the moment.
On/Off
No relevant Warriors have seen a major increase in their value with Green on the court this season (per our On/Off tool):
We see some familiar players have enhanced success in games for which Green has been sidelined:
Green’s absence has led to larger roles for Matt Barnes and Zaza Pachulia. Still, Green has missed just four games this season and Barnes’ numbers are somewhat skewed by a 33.25-point DraftKings performance against the Spurs when the Warriors rested all of their star players.
Like the other key Warriors, Green hasn’t provided excess value without Durant:
Nevertheless, Green’s usage has risen with Durant sidelined, which is a good sign for his future.
Stacking the Warriors
Below is the average production for the Warriors in Green’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past three seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
Thompson, Barnes, and Pachulia have produced the most value in Green’s top-10 fantasy performances of the past three seasons. Barnes and Pachulia aren’t fantasy options on most nights, but consider stacking Green with Thompson, Durant, or Curry, as they’ve all proven to be more than capable of having great games when Green goes off.
Conclusion
Green’s nut-kicking style of play has earned him a lot of enemies around the league and in the media alike. Still, his ability to dominate games on both ends of the court has made him a consistently valuable DFS asset. Green has proven to be particularly effective at home and when his salary decreases by $500 or more in a month.
Consider stacking Green with one of the Warriors’ other superstars on FanDuel while his salary remains below $8,000.
