Thursday brings a six-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 206.5 over/under, Cavs -7
Derrick Favors remains sidelined, and since the Cavs will likely start Richard Jefferson at the four, Joe Johnson should remain in the starting lineup ahead of Boris Diaw. Johnson has averaged 18.35 FanDuel points per game since returning from a groin injury, and his salary remains affordable at $3,600.
Rodney Hood will not play tonight. In the three games Favors and Hood missed this season, Gordon Hayward averaged 44.0 DraftKings points and Joe Ingles provided a team-best +15.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 31.6 minutes. However, George Hill was also missing from those three games, and when Hayward has been a road underdog this season, the results have been poor:
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Hill benefits from this matchup like every other point guard facing the Cavs this season, and Rudy Gobert has dominated sans Favors, recording a team-best +6.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus in those 20 games. As stated in Tuesday’s breakdown, the Cavs have ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebound rate since the All-Star break.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
The Cavs remain a two-man team with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Since the All-Star break, they’ve led the team in minutes, usage, assist rate, and average DraftKings production:
Irving’s salary decreased to $7,900 on DraftKings for the first time since February 8th, pricing him below his average DraftKings point production over the past 10 games. While James is active, Irving profiles as more of a cash-game play. James will continue to offer value with his safe floor despite one of the worst Opponent Plus/Minus marks on the slate.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors
Vegas: 207 over/under, Raptors -2.5
The Thunder on the road against the Nets was a slam dunk on Tuesday. However, overall the Thunder have not been reliable away from Chesapeake Energy Arena this season:
When their Vegas implied point total drops below 107.1 on the road, they rank last in overall DraftKings Plus/Minus (-1.29) for players projected to play at least 18 minutes. They are road underdogs presently implied to score 102.5 points. It’s the ultimate trap. Let’s update the graphic above to focus on the Thunder on the road when implied to score no more than 107 points:
Domantas Sabonis offers the best Consistency and DraftKings Plus/Minus, but he’s been relegated to a reserve role with Taj Gibson now on the roster.
Since the All-Star break, the Raptors have ranked 29th in pace, averaging 95 possessions per 48 minutes, and top-10 in defensive efficiency. Russell Westbrook has been priced up to $13,500 on FanDuel — the highest salary in our database on either platform — and he carries more downside this time around given the trend above.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
In his first game against the Thunder as a member of the Magic this season, Serge Ibaka recorded 50.25 DraftKings points and attempted 19 shots. In 10 games with the Raptors, Ibaka has met salary-based expectations three times, and he was held scoreless in their most recent game. It’s the ultimate #NarrativeStreet play on today’s slate.
If DeMarre Carroll remains out with an ankle injury, Norman Powell could continue to start. Powell recorded 14.75 and 30.75 DraftKings points while playing at least 31 minutes in two straight starts, displaying his inconsistency. Assuming Andre Roberson covers DeMar DeRozan, pivoting to Powell should his usage rise isn’t a bad contrarian move in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks
Vegas: 222 over/under, Knicks -4
These teams played on Sunday, and the Nets won 120-112. In three games this season, the Nets and Knicks have averaged a pace of 104 possessions per 48 minutes, which is roughly the Nets’ yearly average as the league leader.
Sean Kilpatrick and Joe Harris have been ruled out, and Archie Goodwin may not make his debut until he gets through at least one practice. If Sunday’s game was any indication, Jeremy Lin, Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Trevor Booker at least deserve consideration. None of them played more than 30 minutes in the win, but all four exceeded salary-based expectations. That said, playing time and their inconsistency on the road have been large impediments to GPP-type ceilings.
Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out Thursday with a left thigh contusion. That means fire up Willy Hernangomez, who has averaged 30.3 FanDuel points in three games against the Nets this year, and that includes the most recent match when he was essentially benched the second half. His presence in the starting lineup was a godsend for Brook Lopez, who hit five 3-pointers in the first seven minutes while guarded by Hernangomez on Sunday. Both centers should be popular cash-game options, and Lopez receives the more generous Opponent Plus/Minus.
Will we get ‘Iso Melo’ or ‘Triangle Melo’? When Porzingis was off the court during Tuesday’s win, Carmelo Anthony attempted 17 shots and recorded a 35.1 percent usage rate. Before Porzingis left the game with a thigh injury, Anthony recorded a 10 percent usage rate in the 17.7 minutes he shared with Porzingis. To drive home the point further, Anthony’s usage rate over the past seven games sans Porzingis is 31.3 percent; when Porzingis has been on the court over that span, Anthony’s usage rate has dropped to 19.4 percent. Anthony has been far more successful at home this season, and Ian Hartitz has a good point from his Anthony Scouting Report:
Melo has consistently exceeded his implied point totals against opponents with a win percentage of 40 percent or worse, though his ownership has been higher in these situations as well. It can be offensive to call someone a frontrunner, but in this case it’s warranted.
Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks
Vegas: 203.5 over/under, Hawks -4
These teams played one week ago, and Dwight Howard was rested during the Hawks’ 17-point win. This game has the lowest Vegas total on the board, and the Grizzlies are the only team on a six-game slate presently implied to score fewer than 100 points.
Here are two lingering questions I have for the Grizzlies: Who will start at small forward, and will anyone rest on the second night of a back-to-back? If the answers are “Vince Carter” and “no one,” then you can treat this team as you did the past two games. As you might surmise, Carter’s performance takes a massive dip when he’s played with zero days of rest: He has a 28.9 percent field-goal rate and a pace of 93.83 when he’s on the court in that situation. Considering the Grizzlies have moved up to 26th in pace since the All-Star break at 95.11 possessions per 48 minutes, Carter definitely profiles more as a GPP option given his downside.
When the Grizzlies aren’t favored, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are much more consistent:
Conley: DFS Scouting Report
And for reasons I cannot explain, JaMychal Green has dominated on the second night of back-to back-sets:
It may coincide with Chandler Parsons‘ absences this season or Zach Randolph‘s downturn in production: Randolph’s 40.9 percent field-goal mark with zero days rest is 5.9 percent lower than his season average. Green is bound to be overlooked simply for his lack of upside, but he did register 34.2 FanDuel points against the Hawks last Saturday.
Gasol and Conley profile more as cash-game plays, and Conley ranks third among all projected starting points guards today in FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. Nonetheless, neither is projected for high ownership, which increases their appeal in GPPs.
Ever since his one-game suspension coming out of the All-Star break, Dennis Schroder has been cash money:
And since being benched a majority of the second half against the Warriors, he’s averaged a +12.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He and Paul Millsap possess Bargain Ratings of at least 86 percent, and their fantasy production is highly correlated. Additionally, the Grizzlies have ranked 29th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, yielding 112.9 points per 100 possessions. Stacking both from a game with the lowest implied Vegas total is one way to go contrarian in GPPs.
The Birthday Narrative is in full effect for Tim Hardaway Jr. He’s been solid in March without solely relying on scoring for his production. He’s made at least one 3-pointer in 19 straight games, and outside of resting most of the last game vs. the Grizzlies because of the blowout, his minutes have been close to 30 each night out.
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Vegas: 220.5 over/under, Nuggets -4
The following players have been ruled out of this game: Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur. This is the game with all the value.
In the three games these teams played previously this season, Griffin was absent from all three and Chris Paul missed the last two after recording 15 assists in the first meeting. Point guards facing the Nuggets have been the lock play all season (except for Isaiah Thomas a few games back when he was hounded by Gary Harris), raising the stocks of Paul and Raymond Felton.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Griffin missed 20 games earlier this season, and Paul averaged a team-high 44.7 DraftKings points in 29.2 minutes during the 10 games he played sans Griffin. When both Griffin and Jordan are off the court, Paul averages 1.38 DraftKings points per minute, Marreese Speights averages 1.12 DraftKings points per minute, and Austin Rivers provides a team-high +2.1 percent usage rate differential. Speights and Brandon Bass could start in the frontcourt together, and with limited options behind them, minutes could be abundant. Speights should be the incredibly popular option from the Clippers’ side of this battle due to his very low cost and quality per-minute production.
When I think of underdog, Rivers is like the 42nd name that comes to mind:
He’s had success when the Clippers have been underdogs this season because he has seen increased playing time with Paul and/or Griffin sidelined. His salary has been driven down to $3,700 on DraftKings, and he may actually move into the starting lineup if Luc Mbah a Moute moves up to starting power forward.
Juancho Hernangomez should be a popular option from the Nuggets’ side. He’ll likely start at small forward, and he costs less than $4,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings. When Chandler, Gallinari, and Arthur have been off the court since the All-Star break, Hernangomez has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute.
Mason Plumlee in his career against the Clippers has done well:
Granted, he did that mostly as the starting center for the Blazers, and now that Kenneth Faried is available to play, Plumlee may not start alongside Nikola Jokic. Faried, barring a minute restriction, offers a season-low $4,000 DraftKings salary, and Gary Harris remains very consistent at his mid-tier salary.
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
Vegas: 218.5 over/under, Warriors -13.5
Nikola Vucevic leads the Magic with a +6.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus in games when they are double-digit underdogs — the third-highest mark for players with at least eight such games this season. Excluding one recent poor performance against the Knicks, he’s exceeded 40.0 DraftKings points in every game since the All-Star break, yet his salary has stagnated at $7,300 on DraftKings for tonight. He’s led the team with a 30.4 percent usage rate since the trade of Ibaka. The center position is loaded with a ton of value, and because the Magic are presently 13.5-point favorites, Vucevic may be better utilized in tournaments due to the minutes downside.
The Warriors are once again double-digit favorites at home. It didn’t go so well on Tuesday, as they eked out a two-point victory. The last time they faced the Magic, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson each hit seven 3-pointers.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson has recorded a +6.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency at home this season, and when the Warriors are favored by at least 10 points, he’s at the top of the list in average FanDuel Plus/Minus and Consistency:
When his opponent’s winning percentage is no greater than 40 percent, Thompson’s FanDuel Plus/Minus increases to +6.38 on 89.5 percent Consistency. He and Curry are properly priced since Kevin Durant has been sidelined, and Curry offers a bit more flexibility on DraftKings with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s rarely provided Upside over the past most, which makes him profile more as a cash-game play, yet he’s failed to meet salary-based expectations in five of the past seven games without Durant.
News Updates
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