Wednesday brings a 10-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
On the one hand, this game has the largest Vegas total (235) by nearly 14 full points, and the Rockets’ implied point total (126) is nearly 13 points higher than that of any other team. On the other hand, the Rockets are huge 17-point favorites. Is that a bad thing? Or is the blowout factor overrated? Let’s go to the Trends tool and find out.
This season, players projected for 15 or more DK points have posted a +2.22 Plus/Minus on 57.2 percent Consistency:
If we add a filter to screen for only those players in games with a spread of at least 15 points, the Plus/Minus and Consistency both jump.
Intriguing.
Adam Levitan posted a great screencast yesterday on late-season NBA strategy and how to minimize risk in the later months of the year when teams have very different agendas, be it tanking, pushing for the playoffs, etc. Are players in high-spread games more at risk later in the year?
Not really. Finally, what about the studs? Obviously, a guy like James Harden at $12,600 DK and $12,000 FD getting into a blowout and missing value is a much bigger deal than someone like Trevor Ariza, who costs only $5,100 DK and $5,000 FD.
OK, now we’re getting to the bottom of this issue. Of course, this is all relative: In Harden’s one game in a similar spot this year, he did miss value by 2.65 DK points — but he still put up 59.5 points. He needs 60.65 to hit value today, so this trend may take him out of cash-game consideration, but he still has a massive ceiling, especially against a Lakers team that ranks fifth in pace, averaging 101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.5 points per 100 possessions.
Harden: DFS Scouting Reports
In two games against the Lakers this season, the Rockets have largely done very well:
Clint Capela had a really nice game, and he’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that time.
And Nene remains a lovely DraftKings secret, as his salary is still $3,900 despite doing this over the past month:
Patrick Beverley has played in only one game against the Lakers, but he exploded for a +22.6 DK Plus/Minus. And, of course, don’t forget about Lou Williams, who was just traded from the Lakers to the Rockets over the All-Star break. He hasn’t been great lately . . .
This isn’t exactly a great #RevengeGame narrative, but Lou probably doesn’t even need one to gun away in the fourth quarter against a bad defense.
The Lakers are in full tank mode and giving the younger players more run: They shut down Timofey Mozgov for the season, and Ivica Zubac — their second-round pick in the 2016 NBA Draft — played 30.4 minutes on Monday. He should get the start again and be a popular punt play: He put up 40.7 FD points on a 25-11 line last game, and he remains only $4,900 on FD, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating. The Rockets aren’t atrocious defensively, but they have been generous to opposing centers this year:
Jordan Clarkson got the start at PG Monday on the back-to-back over D’Angelo Russell but finished with just 22.9 FD points in 33.0 minutes. He’s been consistent lately . . .
. . . but it’s hard to trust either of these guys against Beverley, who ranks second among PGs this season with a +2.03 Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Brandon Ingram profiles as a cash-game play given his limited ceiling, and he’s been very solid at his low price tag lately:
This is the largest spread he’s played in since he’s increased his role and minutes. He hasn’t crushed value in these games, but he does have perfect Consistency. No matter the score or script of this game, he’ll likely get his minutes.
Finally, Julius Randle is worth pursuing in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs): He played poorly in an elite matchup against the Nuggets on Monday, but that was a back-to-back and he’s largely been excellent lately, averaging a +9.18 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Point Guards
Hey, Ricky Rubio finally got up above $7,000 DK. All it took was nine straight baller performances for that to happen:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a ridiculous +10.55 Plus/Minus during that time. He exploded on Monday against a hot Wizards team for 62.25 DK points in 39.0 minutes thanks to a silly 22-5-19 line. He and Karl-Anthony Towns are highly correlated, and they’ve both been on fire over the past couple of months. To put his recent games in context: Rubio’s 45.42 DK point average in March . . .
. . . would price him at about $9,500. My point: It’s great that he’s $7,600 today, but it’s still way too cheap.
Kemba Walker has been very steady as well, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +5.33 FD Plus/Minus during that time.
His backcourt mate in Nicolas Batum has been ruled out again tonight with a migraine, but I’d be hesitant to call that a significant bump in value. According to the NBA On/Off tool, Batum’s absence this year has resulted in only 0.6 additional DK points per game for Kemba. Thankfully, he doesn’t need the extra bump, and he faces an Indiana team against which he has played this season, averaging 41.8 DK points and a +5.68 Plus/Minus in three games.
Both the Hornets and Pacers are fighting for playoff position (or just a spot in Charlotte’s case), so they could see usual minutes tonight.
Among high-priced studs, Chris Paul has perhaps flown under the radar the most this season. He’s been dealing with injuries, and he also has had his minutes limited, especially recently during a brutal recent stretch of five games in seven nights. His production and Consistency have taken a hit:
However, he has played 35.0 and 34.2 minutes over the past two games, and he’s responded with 55.0 and 48.8 DK points. The PG position is not loaded with great plays today, and CP3 could certainly play well as a low-owned pivot up from the likely chalkiness of Rubio. Milwaukee continues to struggle defensively, allowing 106.6 points/100 on the year — a bottom-10 rate — and CP3 shot 7-of-11 against them just two weeks ago. He’s very cheap on DK, where his $8,200 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends (accessible to Pro subscribers in our Player Models).
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
While Kemba isn’t affected that much by Batum’s absence, Jeremy Lamb certainly is:
In four games sans Batum this season, Lamb has averaged 33.56 DK points and a massive +16.5 Plus/Minus in 30.7 minutes per game. He got the start on Monday and finished with 38.0 DK points on 26 real points. That said, DK is quick to raise salaries and Lamb now sits at $5,600 after being $3,500 on Monday. Thankfully, FD is not as quick: Lamb is only $4,900 there, with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s likely to get the start again and meet value against a mediocre Pacers backcourt (per our Matchups tool).
Devin Booker has been playing large minutes — he went for 40.5 on Sunday against the Blazers — and he’s responded with excellent DFS outings:
He gets the Kings tonight, and they are always a tough team to analyze: Although they’re poor defensively, ranking 25th in efficiency and allowing 108.7 points/100, they also play very slow, ranking 27th in pace and averaging just 96.9 possessions/48. Players have to be efficient to put up big games against them given the limited opportunities, but the Kings also allow a lot of efficient games. Booker has been solid against the Kings in two games this year . . .
. . . and, more broadly, he has still been fine even in slow-paced games — which is particularly telling, since most of the slow-paced teams (Utah, Dallas, Memphis, etc. have excellent defenses):
He’s a fine play at $6,600 on FD, where he has 11 Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
For a mid-tier guy, Avery Bradley is in an intriguing spot tonight. His minute restriction was lifted to 30 three games ago, and he immediately hit that threshold for two straight games. He didn’t get there on Sunday, but it was because the Celtics blew out the Bulls.
If we can expect 30-ish minutes, he is cheap at only $5,600 FD. That said, the Celtics are playing the Timberwolves, who have had the league’s second-best defense since the All-Star break a month ago, per nba.com/stats.
But, again, Bradley is only $5,600.
Small Forwards
Paul George hasn’t dominated the Hornets this season . . .
. . . but he did put up 49.5 FD points against them in their most recent meeting a week ago, and that coincides with his recent elevated minutes and usage as the Pacers push for a high playoff spot in a crowded Eastern Conference:
March has treated him well, and he remains too cheap on FD, where his $8,100 salary comes with 12 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
George: DFS Scouting Report
As mentioned in a recent live NBA edition of Inside the Lab, Harrison Barnes performs well in pace-up games:
He gets one again today, as the Mavericks, who rank 29th in pace, face the Wizards, who rank 11th in pace: The difference is about 5.5 possessions/48. Even over a non-pace adjusted sample, Barnes has been solid lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games:
He remains cheap on FD, where his $6,000 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. As I’ve mentioned lately in previous NBA Breakdowns, guys with 90-plus percent Bargain Ratings on FD have been valuable this season.
T.J. Warren is affordable at $5,900 FD. He has been incredible lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a robust +7.70 Plus/Minus over that time.
He’s in the same dilemma as Booker: The Kings are bad defensively, but they also play at a slow pace. Warren has struggled in these instances before . . .
. . . but he’s played very well against the Kings specifically:
Given his recent play and success in this matchup, he’s certainly worth GPP shares.
Power Forwards
Something has gotten into Marvin Williams lately:
He has averaged a silly +10.73 DK Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over the past 10 games, continuing to play massive minutes even with the re-addition of Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky to the rotation. If you look at his game logs to see what’s up, you’ll notice that his rebounds are way up:
He’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games — the only one in which he missed the mark was against these Pacers. That may seem ominous for tonight, but note Indiana’s larger rebounding sample: The Pacers rank 26th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.3 percent of the available boards. I’m fine betting on Marvin to continue his rebounding ways tonight, and he’s still affordable on both sites at $6,500 DK/FD.
Something has been off with Blake Griffin: He’s averaged a poor -1.37 DK Plus/Minus on 40 percent Consistency over the past 10 games:
However, I’m fairly bullish on Griffin for the same reason I like CP3: That brutal stretch is now over, and they get a Bucks team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.6 points/100. They have been the fifth-worst team this season against opposing big men:
Blake predictably struggled Monday against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, but he has a much better matchup today and positive correlation with CP3.
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Willie Cauley-Stein should continue to start alongside Kosta Koufos in the Sacramento frontcourt, and he’ll definitely have the easier matchup:
It gets even worse if we look at PF Marquese Chriss‘ defense metrics guarding pick-and-roll screeners:
In 12 games this season without DeMarcus Cousins — most of which have come since the trade — WCS has led the Kings with 31.4 minutes per game. He’s averaged 26.56 DK points and a +5.6 Plus/Minus during that time. Against Chriss and a Suns team that ranks third in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, WCS has a lot of upside in tournaments.
Centers
Speaking of DeMarcus Cousins, he hasn’t exactly been as fun to roster now that he’s sharing the ball with Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis, but he has a nice matchup today against the Heat, who have been solid defensively this year — they rank fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing just 103.9 points/100 — but have struggled against DK centers this season:
Cousins is especially cheap on FD: His salary has dropped all the way down to $9,000, and he leads the entire slate with 14 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. The Pelicans continue to fight for the eighth seed in the Western Conference, playing their best game of basketball yesterday against the Blazers, blowing them out 100-77.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Zubac will certainly be the chalk at $4,900 FD, but Alan Williams isn’t a bad pivot at just $700 more. He has been an excellent DFS asset of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a +9.96 Plus/Minus over that time:
He gets an excellent matchup against a Kings team that, again, is poor defensively, but (more importantly) struggles to rebound the ball: They rank 23rd in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.9 percent of the available boards, and that was with Cousins playing for most of the year. Big Sauce has exceeded value an impressive 80 percent of the time since the beginning of February:
Pro Subscribers can review the ownership of Williams and other players via our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
If we’re talking about guys who have been amazing lately, we can’t go without mentioning Karl-Anthony Towns:
He has averaged a whopping 52.1 DK points per game over the past 1.5 months, and even though he has negative home/road splits overall . . .
. . . he’s been unstoppable everywhere lately:
I’m sure you probably already know about his positive correlation with Rubio . . .
. . . which just further boosts his appeal in all contest formats.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
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