“Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated; it satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time rewarding and maddening — and it is without a doubt the greatest game mankind has ever invented.”
— Arnold Palmer
Bay Hill Club & Lodge hosts this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, the first since the King’s passing last September.
This tournament has been somewhat difficult to predict over recent years — Matt Every went back-to-back in 2014 and 2015 — but as always Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) is important, given the DraftKings scoring system. Per our Trends tool, players in the upper quintile in Long-term (LT) Adj Bird Avg have produced a steady +3.07 Plus/Minus with 62.2 percent Consistency at Bay Hill.
This week we’ll also focus on Adjusted Par 5 Scoring (Adj P5) and Scrambling (SC) when searching for golfers to roster. Something not talked about much in the DFS Golf community this week is Driving Distance (DD) — but it has been a consistent predictor of success at this track previously:
The 10 Percenters
Céad Mile Fáilte
Two golfers this week currently have odds to win of 10 percent or higher, one of whom is Rory McIlroy ($12,000), who leads the field at 12.5 percent. McIlroy’s game is perfect for DK scoring, and his 87.6 DK points per tournament over the past 12 months is tops among golfers in the field who have started more than 10 tournaments during that time.
Rory’s 67.7 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) leads the field, his 72.3 LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage ranks third, and his 308.1-yard LT DD is sixth. McIlroy’s 17.9 LT Adj Bird Avg and -8.0 LT Adj P5 also lead the field.
In our Player Models, Rory currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 21-25 percent. Be sure to check out his actual ownership across several DK tournaments with the GOAT DFS Ownership Dashboard. This is just one of the many sharp Labs Tools that can help you be a +EV subscriber.
Course Adjusted Beast
Henrik Stenson ($11,500) currently has 10 percent odds to win. A quick glance at his course history reveals why. His stellar 67.8 Course Adj Rd Score (accumulated in six tournaments) is tops among golfers with more than one start at Bay Hill. He’s a perfect eight for eight here and has finished in the top 15 the past five years, the top eight the past four years, and the top three the past two years. Winning?
Stenson’s 68.0 LT Adj Rd Score ranks third, his 74.8 percent LT GIR leads the field, and both his 17.0 LT Adj Bird Avg and -6.2 LT Adj P5 rank second.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Rickie Fowler ($9,900): Fowler’s 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth, his -4.7 LT Adj P5 is tied for 14th, and his 63.5 LT SC percentage leads the field this week. He also is advantaged with his 300.8-yard LT DD. Rickie finished 29th at Bay Hill last year and has a third-place finish here on his resume from 2013.
Justin Rose ($9,500): Rose’s 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fourth, both his 70.1 percent LT GIR and his 303.2-yard LT DD are 13th, and his -5.4 LT Adj P5 is fourth overall. Rose has made nine of 11 cuts at this event with four top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2013 and a ninth-place finish last year.
Tyrell Hatton ($9,100): Currently working on a streak of seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, Hatton is making his debut at Bay Hill. Hatton’s 70.9 percent LT GIR is seventh, his 14.7 LT Adj Bird Avg is 12th, and his 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks fourth overall.
Thomas Pieters ($8,700): Pieters squeaked through the cut in his debut here last season and finished 76th. He arrives this year with two top-five finishes in his last three starts on the PGA Tour. His 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score is 17th this week. Pieters 303.0-yard LT DD ranks 14th, his 15.3 LT Adj Bird Avg is fifth, and his -6.0 Recent Adj P5 is tied for seventh.
Jason Kokrak ($7,900): Kokrak has made three of four cuts at Bay Hill, two of which were top-10 finishes. His 69.2 Course Adj Rd Score ranks 10th among golfers who have made at least two starts here. His 307.2-yard LT DD ranks seventh in the field, and his 69.8 Recent GIR percentage (in his four most recent tournaments) ranks 10th.
Byeong-Hun An ($7,000): An’s 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 18th, his 15.1 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for seventh, and his -4.3 LT Adj P5 is 28th overall. An finished 36th here last year.
Charles Howell III ($6,900): CH3 checks all the boxes this week: His 302.0-yard LT DD and 14.3 LT Adj Bird Avg both rank 16th, his 62.1 LT SC percentage is sixth, and his -5.3 LT Adj P5 is tied for fifth in the field. He has made 14 of 16 cuts at Bay Hill but has only one top-10 finish (in 2005). His pricing could lead to extremely high ownership this week.
Lucas Glover ($6,700): Glover has currently made eight straight cuts, so there’s bound to be a missed cut in Tilt Master Glover’s future, but he sets up well for success here. His 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is 15th, his 17.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for fifth, and his -4.5 LT Adj P5 ranks 21st overall.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Not surprisingly, Stenson is the model’s top golfer but not far behind in rating is Kevin Na ($7,600), this week’s Levitanimal. Over the past three years at Bay Hill, Na has not finished outside of the top 15, finishing sixth last year. He was also the runner-up in 2010. Na’s 68.4 Course Adj Rd Score ranks fifth among golfers with two or more starts at Bay Hill, his 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 14th, and his 14.2 LT Adj Bird Avg is 16th overall.
Humpnostication
Every once in a while Hump gets a rumbling in his belly [and evidently decides to speak of himself in the first person à la Costanza]. More often than not it means I ate too many street tacos, but other times it’s true Humpnostication. This week, the rumbling suggests that Jason Day ($10,600) is going to remind folks he was recently the World’s No. 1 golfer.
Day won this event last year and has made the cut in four of his six appearances: His 68.1 Course Adj Rd is second among golfers with more than one start at Bay Hill. Day’s 67.8 LT Adj Rd Score is second, his 304.2-yard LT DD ranks 11th, his 62.1 LT SC percentage is tied for sixth, and his -6.0 LT Adj P5 is third overall.
Of course, he could withdraw with a back injury or contract some type of virus at any moment, so he’s best suited for guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck this week!
