Tuesday welcomes a three-game main slate at 8pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 207 over/under, Raptors -4.5
The Raptors traded Terrence Ross and a draft pick for Serge Ibaka. That excludes Ross from playing tonight, which opens up minutes for Norman Powell, and Ibaka is unlikely to debut tonight since both players need to pass physicals.
Patrick Patterson has been listed as questionable for the fifth straight game. Coach Dwane Casey opted to start Jakob Poeltl on Sunday instead of Pascal Siakam, but it was Lucas Nogueira who played 31.5 minutes off the bench at power forward. None of those three replacements averaged more than 17.4 DK points per game during Patterson’s four-game absence. And to reiterate my point from Sunday’s breakdown, Patterson was limited to 21 minutes in his first game back from a left knee bone bruise on January 24th, and the restriction wasn’t highly publicized prior to the game.
DeMarre Carroll has emerged with a +9.66 DK Plus/Minus over the past four games, a departure from his typical production. He’ll also see a steady helping of minutes on the wing due to the Ross trade, and when skimming the small forward player pool, Carroll immediately stands out due to his cheap salary.
How have the Raptors historically produced against the Bulls?
Kyle Lowry played less than 37 minutes in consecutive games for the first time since mid-January, and his recent decline in production could be a sign of fatigue. He hasn’t made more than six shots in five straight games, and his salary is close enough to the Cavs’ Kyrie Irving‘s that paying up for Irving isn’t a hindrance. It’s a question of perceived fatigue versus his career +13.8 DK Plus/Minus against the Bulls.
DeMar DeRozan or Jimmy Butler could be a discussion unto itself. Butler has been upgraded to probable, and he costs $600 more than DeRozan on DK and FD. DeRozan doesn’t offer a compelling ceiling for GPPs, but his 88 percent Consistency over the past month leads all shooting guards on the slate. DeRozan has marginally exceeded salary-based expectations in the three games he’s played since dealing with a sore right ankle, and his minutes have been firmly around 38 per contest.
Butler, on the other hand, averages 55.9 DK points in 38.0 minutes when Dwyane Wade is sidelined, and as long as he’s cleared to play, he’s the superior GPP option when compared to DeRozan simply for the increased usage as the team’s primary playmaker when Rajon Rondo is on the bench.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Wade, Nikola Mirotic, and Paul Zipser have all been ruled out. All three injured players and Butler missed Sunday’s 28-point loss. Here’s how production was distributed:
Taj Gibson was essentially given the afternoon off, and the usage was centralized around Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams, and Doug McDermott, the latter of whom is slowly morphing into Tony Snell. Bobby Portis played a team-high 30.6 minutes, and he padded his stats over the final 15 minutes. He’s more of a risky punt play today because of Gibson’s minutes volatility.
McDermott is extremely dependent on scoring, but here’s how he’s fared against the Raptors in the last three meetings:
In the first two games, he scored 30 and 29 points, respectively. In the most recent game, he recorded the only double-double of his career. He’s a GPP-only option, but that label is applicable to nearly every player on this slate.
Carter-Williams headlines a weak shooting guard position on FD, and he’ll likely start with Wade and Zipser unavailable. I don’t know if coach Fred Hoiberg will instead roll with Denzel Valentine or McDermott on the wing over Carter-Williams, but I’m not ruling it out. In the last three games Carter-Williams received at least 29 minutes, he posted 43.8, 40.2, and 27.4 FD points.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 218 over/under, Cavaliers -4
The last time the Cavs faced the Wolves, Kevin Love was injured and Channing Frye started. When these two teams play tonight, Frye will once again start for the injured Love. The Cavs won the first game 125-97, and Kyrie Irving recorded 14 assists in 31 minutes.
Iman Shumpert has been cleared to play after missing the past three games with a sprained left ankle. Prior to the injury, Shumpert played at least 27 minutes in nine of 10 games and averaged 21.46 FD points. Barring a minute restriction, he’s on the radar at shooting guard due to his sub-$4,000 salary on DK and FD.
Derrick Williams Revenge Game? In three games against the Timberwolves as a King, Williams averaged 27.92 DK points. In two games against the Timberwolves as a Knick, Williams averaged 5.63 DK points. Perhaps he’s too many teams removed to qualify for a revenge game, but he’s played at least 20 minutes in the past two games with Love active. Now that Love is set to undergo surgery, Williams could see an appreciable uptick in minutes. Frye is the other beneficiary, and in the first start against the Wolves, he registered 32 DK points in 21.5 minutes. Because power forward is such a trouble spot tonight, Frye actually profiles as a solid cash play.
Tristan Thompson played 39 minutes in the first meeting, and his playing time was matched with that of Karl-Anthony Towns. Assuming coach Tyronn Lue configures his rotation similarly to help mitigate Towns, Thompson should factor in heavily. Thompson is more palatable on DK with a 97 percent Bargain Rating, and the two ‘My Trends’ I’ve created are quite generous.
When the Cavs are missing Love and J.R. Smith, LeBron James averages 51.7 DK points in 36.3 minutes per game and Irving chimes in with a team-high +3.7 percent usage rate differential. James may have the safest floor on the slate bar none, and he’ll be an elite cash-game play. Irving has averaged 40.2 DK points in 32.0 minutes when Love and Smith don’t play, and if you project Irving to get more than 32 minutes tonight, he’ll warrant consideration across the board. As noted above, he was limited to 31 minutes in the last meeting because of the blowout.
Andrew Wiggins averages more points per game against Cleveland (the team that drafted him) and Toronto (the place where he grew up) than any other teams in the NBA. Not surprisingly, he averages more DK points per game as well against the Cavs and Raptors. Over the past five games without Zach LaVine, Wiggins has averaged 42.75 DK points and a team-high 30.8 percent usage rate. He’s a safe option at small forward.
Is this the game Shabazz Muhammad moves into the starting lineup? Muhammad possesses a great track record against the Cavs, and he played nearly the entire second half ahead of Gorgui Dieng in the previous game. In this case, he may supplant interim starting shooting guard Brandon Rush. Muhammad is one of many volatile, sub-$4,000 options on this slate to pair with the high-priced studs.
Point guards have been a lock against the Cavaliers this season. Additionally, Ricky Rubio has some impressive trends I’ve identified below. He leads all guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and the matchup may be too good to pass up in all formats.
As always, pairing Rubio with Karl-Anthony Towns, whose home/road splits are too drastic to ignore, is a prudent maneuver.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 218 over/under, Lakers -2
Ty Lawson is officially questionable to play. His final status will have a dramatic impact on Darren Collison‘s viability. In the last two games sans Lawson, Collison has played 43.75 and 40.9 minutes. The most minutes a player is projected for today is 38.3 minutes. Collison will likely hold that mantle if Lawson is ruled out, and he’s actually in play on FD at $5,700 regardless of Lawson’s status.
It’s fair to say DeMarcus Cousins is overpriced or perhaps appropriately priced on DK, but on FD, he costs $700 less. Centers projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Lakers this season have averaged a +5.97 FD Plus/Minus on 69 percent Consistency, and Cousins has averaged 52.25 FD points in the first two games against the Lakers this season. With Rudy Gay sidelined the past 14 games, Cousins has averaged 27.4 points, 12.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and a 39.6 percent usage rate. His ceiling alone is worth plenty of shares in GPPs.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
I can guarantee you weren’t expecting to see Anthony Tolliver‘s game log, but that’s exactly what I have for you. His recent range of outcomes has been narrow and his production sides closer to his salary-implied point total rather than double or triple that number. If you don’t want to ride the Bobby Portis roller coaster, consider Tolliver as an alternative.
D’Angelo Russell played over 30 minutes in three straight games to start the month. He’s subsequently played less than 27 minutes in the past three games, all of which were blowouts. Here’s what has happened during that stretch: Brandon Ingram and Tarik Black replaced Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov in the starting lineup. Additionally, coach Luke Walton has gone to hockey-style substitutions, swapping out the entire starting lineup for five reserves and keeping those two groups mainly segregated. This image below from PopcornMachine.net does a solid job illustrating Walton’s stringent rotations from the most recent contest.
In three games with Ingram and Black in the starting lineup, the Lakers have ranked 11th in defensive efficiency (106.6) and first in pace, averaging 106.53 possessions per 48 minutes. When Deng and Mozgov are on the court, the Lakers average 101.5 points per 100 possessions, per NBAwowy. When that tandem is on the bench, the Lakers’ offensive efficiency rises to 110.5 points/100.
Relying on any of the Lakers is a tenuous proposition, but on a three-game slate, it becomes a reality. Jordan Clarkson‘s salary has dropped to a season-low $3,700 on DK, where Clarkson provides point guard and shooting guard eligibility. Deng’s salary is a season-low $3,200 on DK, which is enticing enough to consider as a cheap punt play in tournaments.
As you can tell from the image above, Ivica Zubac is the second-string center ahead of Mozgov. He costs less than $4,000 on FD and DK, and if you’re desperate enough to delve into coach Walton’s rotations, taking a chance on Zubac is one way to get exposure to a team with the second-highest Vegas total today.
News Updates
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