Saturday brings a seven-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. Today, there are THREE games with Vegas totals of 227 or more points.
- Suns at Rockets: 231
- Nuggets at Cavaliers: 229
- Warriors at Thunder: 227
As you can probably guess, it’s not very common for totals to get this high. To have three such totals in a seven-game slate is incredible. This is an imperfect way to show the rarity of this, but follow me anyway. In our Trends database, there are 70,119 player performances.
With the addition of a filter that screens for players in games with a total of 227 or higher, the number drops down to 891.
By my math, that’s only 1.27 percent of all players over the past three years. Again, today’s slate is weird.
The Rockets and Cavs lead the slate with implied point totals of 122.25 and 120.75. Players projected for at least 15 DraftKings points in similar games have done well over the years.
And James Harden, who headlines this Phoenix-Houston game, has done well individually in his two games with totals this high.
Given the matchup — both teams are tied for third in pace, averaging 101.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and Phoenix is 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions on the year — it’s difficult to fade Harden in the spot, even with other studs in great spots.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
As we typically do with Harden, let’s revisit his teammate correlation numbers this year.
There’s little to no correlation here except for a slight one to his big men. Clint Capela has been the big man getting the majority of the recent run, and he’s been excellent in that role:
Still at only $5,300 on FanDuel, Capela is certainly playable in all contest formats yet again.
Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley have also impressed of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of their last three games. The guy who affects this Rockets team (and, thus, the entire slate) is Eric Gordon, who is listed as questionable with a sore back after missing Thursday’s game. It was thought Sam Dekker would fill his role, but coach Mike D’Antoni opted to give the majority of the minutes to veteran wing Corey Brewer instead. Our On/Off tool confirms that, in five games this year without Gordon, Dekker has disappointed and the bulk of the excess DFS value has gone to Harden, who has averaged 66.3 DraftKings points and a +7.2 Plus/Minus in Gordon’s absence.
On the Suns’ side, point guard Eric Bledsoe rebounded last night, putting up 39.3 DK points in 32.6 minutes versus the Bulls . . .
. . . but he has still disappointed over his last 10 outings, averaging a -2.58 DK Plus/Minus. There’s reason to be optimistic tonight, however (despite the obviously high Vegas total): Bledsoe has performed very well against Beverley and the Rockets in the past . . .
. . . and he’s down all the way to $7,200 on DK, where he has 10 Pro Trends (in our Player Models) and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Devin Booker and T.J. Warren are the other two Suns typically worth rostering, and they played well last night, putting up 39.8 and 26.3 DK points in 33.0 and 37.3 minutes of action. Of the two, Booker has the higher ceiling and superior one-on-one matchup versus Harden, who ranks 68th out of 99 eligible SGs with a -1.26 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Both are better values on FD, where their price tags of $6,800 and $4,500 come with 12 and six Pro Trends and Bargain Ratings of 75 and 93 percent.
And it would be fine to have some guaranteed prize pool exposure to P.J. Tucker, who continues to play 30-plus minutes.
Point Guards
Of the guys with high totals today, it is actually Tristan Thompson and Kyrie Irving who have posted the best DK Plus/Minus numbers in the previous high-total situations, averaging Plus/Minus values of +10.2 and +9.0 in two games apiece.
Kyrie has averaged a +6.36 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, and he plays the Nuggets, who remain the absolute worst team in the league this season versus starting PGs.
And Jameer Nelson, who just dropped 36.8 FD points in 35.7 minutes last night against the Knicks, is worth GPP darts as well against a Cavs team that has also struggled to defend PGs this year. In fact, since January 1st, the Cavs have been the worst team in the league in that regard:
Russell Westbrook has been predictably amazing lately . . .
. . . and will likely have a little extra motivation against the Warriors and his former teammate, Kevin Durant. He struggled in their first meeting, scoring ‘only’ 48.0 DK points, but he exploded just three weeks ago for 73.25 points. Those first two games were in Oakland, and Westbrook has been a superior DFS asset at home this season.
Even at $12,500 FD and against the No. 2 defense in the league, Westbrook is an elite play.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
And we haven’t even discussed other elite PG options like Stephen Curry, who has the position’s second-highest projected ceiling, or Goran Dragic, who gets a Philadelphia squad without Joel Embiid. Without their young big man, the 76ers have allowed a putrid 112.0 points per 100 possessions, which would easily be the worst mark in the league if extrapolated out across the whole year.
Shooting Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo did not disappoint last night in his first game without Jabari Parker, putting up 58.6 FD points thanks to 37 real points, eight rebounds, and five assists. He was incredibly aggressive on the offensive end and made 18 of his 21 free throws. He gets an Indiana team that has improved defensively over the last month and now ranks 13th in efficiency, allowing 105.4 points/100. He’s quite expensive at $10,500 DK and especially $11,200 FD, but he’s also likely to be incredibly low-owned give Harden’s presence in the slate and the other studs with massive totals.
Will Barton continues to play high minutes with the Nuggets’ injuries, getting 34.1, 38.3, and 36.8 minutes over the past three games. When given opportunity, Barton has provided excellent DFS value:
He remains only $6,200 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. He and fellow guard Gary Harris have excellent Opponent Plus/Minus values of +2.47 against the Cavaliers, who have been awful defensively of late and currently rank 18th in efficiency, allowing 106.2 points/100.
Evan Fournier, Wesley Matthews, and Seth Curry are all within $300 of each other on FD and are a few of the solid plays not on the second leg of a back-to-back. Fournier dropped 42.8 FD points in 43.2 minutes last game against the 76ers but is in a large ‘pace-down’ game against the Mavericks, who are 29th on the year, averaging only 93.5 possessions/48. Curry has been the DFS darling over the past month, but he’s plateaued a bit, both in pricing and performance, and he’s currently only $300 less than his teammate, Matthews, who has been incredible of late:
Matthews has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +6.09 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
Small Forwards
LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the two highest-priced options at $11,100 and $10,700 on FD, and they’re both in massively high-total games. Of the two, Durant has the inferior matchup, as he’ll face his old Thunder team, which currently ranks seventh in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.4 points/100. Further, he should draw a matchup against elite wing defender Andre Roberson, who knows him well and ranks sixth among all eligible SFs with a +2.03 DRPM. That said, Durant certainly seems to care against his former team:
In his last game against the Thunder on January 18th, he dropped 70 DK points on 40 real points, 12 rebounds, and three blocks.
LeBron is facing a Denver team that ranks fifth in pace, averaging 100.6 possessions/48, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.7 points/100. The Nuggets are on the second leg of a back-to-back and just allowed 123 points last night to the Knicks, who aren’t exactly the Cavaliers on offense. LeBron has missed value over his last two games . . .
. . . but he has still averaged an absurd +8.35 DK Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Paul George has been equally consistent lately:
And he will likely pop in our Player Models, as he has an elite +4.86 Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Bucks. That said, I discussed in yesterday’s breakdown why I expect that number to go down: Giannis has been guarding PFs this season to stay near the rim, thereby moving Parker (a statistically horrible defender against PF) to guard SFs. With Parker now gone and elite defender Khris Middleton coming back into the rotation, I’m expecting the Bucks’ defense to tighten up, especially against opposing SFs. Still, PG is worth rostering given his recent performance, reasonable $8,100 DK salary, and likely low ownership.
Power Forwards
Nikola Jokic is similar to Giannis: He has an elite ceiling yet could be underowned given the slate’s other studs like Westbrook, Harden, LeBron, and Durant. That means that Jokic is an incredible leverage play in tournaments, and he legitimately has the potential to be the slate’s highest-scoring player. He looked like was fully back from a hip injury last night, putting up 60.3 FD points on 40 real points with ridiculous 17-of-23 shooting. He is perhaps the most dynamic offensive big man in the league right now, and he gets a Cavs team that has struggled defensively of late: The Cavs are down to a below-average Defensive Rating of 106.2.
Dirk Nowitzki and Serge Ibaka will face off today and they’ve both been excellent of late, posting FD Plus/Minus values over the last 10 games of +3.07 and +3.45. Dirk has posted back-to-back games of 33.4 and 39.5 FD points and he’s not actually on a back-to-back tonight, which has been important for the 38-year-old’s value this season:
Despite having excellent defenders, Orlando has continued to struggle defending this year: Dirk has an excellent +2.36 Opponent Plus/Minus and Orlando ranks only 22nd in efficiency, allowing 107.2 points/100. Dirk remains affordable at $5,300 DK and $5,700 FD. Ibaka is right there as well at only $6,000 on FD, where he has 11 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating but also a -3.41 Opponent Plus/Minus due to the Mavs’ slow pace.
James Johnson has continued to crush lately . . .
. . . and he dropped 43.6 FD points in 34.7 minutes last night against the Nets. Tonight’s matchup might be just as easy against an Embiid-less 76ers squad, and JJ has proven that he’s an elite value, especially when guard Dion Waiters is off the floor.
Waiters’ status for tonight is up in the air with a sprained left ankle that’s held him out of the last two games.
And don’t forget about Kevin Love, who has been excellent at home this year . . .
. . . and now he gets projected starter Darrell Arthur, who has a below-average +0.24 DRPM on a Denver team with the worst defensive squad in the NBA.
One last (quick) mention: Derrick Favors played 32.6 minutes last game against the Pelicans. If he’s able to play even 26-plus minutes against a below-average Boston defense, he’ll be a nice bet to hit value on his low $5,000 FD price tag.
Centers
Steven Adams seems to be the clear pivot away from Capela: He’s in a high-total game and has also been great lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +5.22 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame.
He’s played 39.2, 37.0, 37.9, and 44.1 minutes over his last four games and will likely get a ton of run tonight, as he is essentially the Thunder’s only above-average big man with Enes Kanter sidelined. He struggled against the Warriors in his first meeting this year . . .
. . . but he’s also now in a different, expanded role. At only $6,000 DK, he’s worth shots in tournaments.
I mentioned this in passing during the Kyrie section, but Tristan Thompson has been alright in extreme high-total games before:
If you want to pay up for a center, Hassan Whiteside is likely to be low-owned and has a massive +5.46 Opponent Plus/Minus against a Philly team that has been truly awful against opposing centers this year. That number includes games with Embiid as well, so you can imagine how poor the 76ers are in games with Jahlil Okafor defending the rim.
Whiteside disappointed for the third time this year last night in an elite matchup against the Nets, scoring only 28.8 DK points in 25.1 minutes, but we discussed on yesterday’s Flex podcast that Whiteside might actually struggle with a floor-spacing five like Brook Lopez. Okafor is not that, and the 76ers are perhaps an even worse defensive team than the Nets without Embiid on the floor to clean up their mess. Whiteside is a better value on DK, where his $8,500 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
I’ll mention one more intriguing GPP option in Nikola Vucevic, who has been a phenomenal tournament target lately.
He’s up to $7,300 now and is in a pace-down game against the Mavericks, but he does have a ton of rebounding upside: He has grabbed 30 boards over his last two games and faces a Dallas team that is dead last in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 46.2 percent of the available boards.
Good luck!
News Updates
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