Friday brings a nine-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
Jabari Parker will officially miss the rest of the season after tearing the same left ACL twice now in three years. It’s a devastating blow both for the breakout stud and the Bucks organization, as he injured his knee on the same night they welcomed back Khris Middleton. His presence will certainly help, but it’s frustrating not to get to see this team at full strength.
Middleton played only 14.9 minutes in his debut, and he’ll likely continue to be eased back into the rotation. Here’s what our NBA News feed had to say about Parker’s potential injury fill-ins.
Our NBA Matchups page currently has Mirza Teletovic starting at the PF spot in Parker’s place, but it’s certainly a possibility that head coach Jason Kidd could distribute minutes evenly across the wing and frontcourt rotation. Teletovic and Michael Beasley are certainly intriguing at their low salaries of $3,000 and $3,900 on DraftKings, but be cautious until we get a better sense of the rotation.
Parker has yet to miss a game this year, but when he’s been off the floor, Giannis Antetokounmpo has actually used less possessions than when he’s on:
Further, while Giannis’ assist rate and rebound rate have dipped without Jabari on the floor, his true shooting percentage has increased. This isn’t to say that Giannis won’t increase his usage rate or that the Bucks are better sans Jabari, but the data is interesting and suggests perhaps that the shooting and spacing of Teletovic, along with the re-addition of Middleton, can help Giannis keep this offense afloat even in Parker’s absence.
And, honestly, it probably won’t even matter for today’s game: The Bucks are currently 4.5-point home favorites implied for 112 points — the third-highest mark in the slate — against a poor Lakers squad. The Lakers rank sixth in pace this year, averaging 100.5 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing a putrid 110.2 points per 100 possessions. Giannis hasn’t played the Lakers this year, but he did last year (before this year’s leap, mind you) and he didn’t do too bad:
The last time he played them, he put up 75 DraftKings points in what was his first career triple-double, posting 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists.
Also, John Henson remains way too cheap at $3,900 FD.
Although the Lakers are currently implied for 107.5 points in the day’s second-highest total game, it’s likely that the Bucks’ defense will actually improve with Parker gone and Middleton back. Parker, per ESPN, ranked 96th out of 96 eligible PFs with a -1.88 Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Because of Lakers head coach Luke Walton’s rotations, it’s difficult to get excited about any player’s ceiling or floor: No Laker exceeded 30 minutes last game and no one is currently projected to today. Of their main young guys, Brandon Ingram has been the only one to semi-consistently meet value lately . . .
. . . and he remains the best value at $4,100 FD, where he comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and a large +4.19 Opponent Plus/Minus. That said, SFs versus Milwaukee have been great all year because Parker and Giannis have switched assignments to keep the latter near the rim. With Parker gone and Middleton back to help check wings, I’m certainly expecting that high Opponent Plus/Minus number to fall.
Other than Ingram, guys like Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, and even Lou Williams have flashed nice ceilings for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but given the nine-game slate and their volatile minute loads, it may be wise to be light on Lakers tonight.
Point Guards
With Ty Lawson doubtful tonight with a strained left hamstring, Darren Collison will essentially be the only healthy PG on the Kings’ roster. In two games this year without Lawson, Collison has averaged 36.0 DraftKings points and a massive +14.0 Plus/Minus in 36.4 minutes per game.
Further, while the Hawks’ defense as a whole is solid — they rank fifth on the year in defensive efficiency — they’ve been very poor against opposing PGs. Per our Trends tool, they rank third in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed:
At only $5,200 FD, Collison will certainly be a chalky cash-game option.
Goran Dragic has played 34.4 and 34.5 minutes over the last two games despite Tyler Johnson coming back into the Heat’s rotation. Dragic has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +6.41 FD Plus/Minus over that time. Oh yeah, and he faces the Brooklyn Nets tonight, who rank first in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions/48, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.0 points/100. Dragic comes with a +3.09 Opponent Plus/Minus and is fairly priced at $7,900 DK and $8,100 FD.
If you pull up Dennis Schroder‘s game log, his recent performance stands out.
That game was against the Denver Nuggets, who remain easily the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs.
Today the lucky PG that gets the Nuggets is Derrick Rose, who just posted 39.4 FD points in 37.4 minutes on Wednesday against the Clippers. That said, I found an interesting trend on Rose, who seems to play up and down to his competition this year:
That said, the 76 percent Consistency versus the Nuggets is a hard trend to fade.
Shooting Guards
On the other side of that Knicks-Denver matchup sits Will Barton, who has exploded in the last two games:
He has posted back-to-back outings of 44.9 and 49.1 FanDuel points, and he’s played high minute totals of 38.3 and 36.8 in those contests. Today he gets a Knicks team that has been very poor defensively this year, allowing 108.3 points/100 — the eighth-worst mark in the league. They’ve been especially poor against SGs, as evidenced by Barton’s +1.67 Opponent Plus/Minus. Barton has been much better on the road this year . . .
. . . and he will be a fairly chalky play, especially on FD, where his $5,800 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
A lot of people will likely pay up for Giannis without Parker versus the Lakers, which means pivoting down to a lower-owned Bradley Beal could be a nice move in tournaments. Beal has been excellent lately . . .
. . . exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.81 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame. The Pacers have been better defensively of late — they’ve moved up to 12th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.2 points/100 on the year — but C.J. Miles is their weakest defender. He’s posted a -0.33 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) this year and has been below-average against spot-up shooters. Beal has excelled in that regard this season:
And if you want to pivot down just a bit more in a very weak position today, Devin Booker has averaged a +3.48 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games despite missing value in his last two outings. Those have come in tough matchups against the Grizzlies and Pelicans, and while the Bulls are no slouch defensively — they rank ninth, allowing 105.0 points/100 on the year — Dwyane Wade is currently day-to-day with an illness and could be limited even if he does play. Booker has posted elite shooting and offensive numbers of late . . .
. . . and he brings a lot of minutes safety in an incredibly volatile DFS position. He currently leads all SGs with 11 FD Pro Trends.
Small Forwards
Another day, another slate to use Matt Barnes at his still-reasonable salary of $5,100 FD. He’s crushed lately . . .
. . . and continues to see 30-plus minutes in Rudy Gay‘s absence. He does have fairly large home/away splits this season, but that’s partly due to playing a lot of home games lately. Regardless, he’s in Sacramento tonight against a Hawks team that will yet again be without their best wing defender in Thabo Sefolosha. Barnes has eight 3-pointers over his last three games and faces an Atlanta squad that has given up the fifth-most 3-pointers in the league this season.
Barton will certainly be the sexy Denver play in this slate, but Wilson Chandler is right there with him. With Emmanuel Mudiay, Danilo Gallinari, and Kenneth Faried out for the Nuggets tonight, Chandler will continue to see an expanded role in the offense. In seven games without Gallo this year, Chandler has led the team with 37.1 DK points and a +9.3 Plus/Minus in 35.0 minutes per game. That’s a bump of 4.3 minutes per game above his usual average.
Chandler will likely draw the start again at PF alongside Nikola Jokic against a Knicks team that has both defended and rebounded at a bottom-10 level this year.
And on the other side of that matchup, Carmelo Anthony will look to build on his 45.3-point FD outing last game against the Clippers tonight against a Denver defense that is now worst in the league, allowing 110.4 points/100 on the year. The Knicks, who have a below-average offense on the season, are currently implied for a slate-high 115.25 points tonight; this game has the slate’s highest Vegas total at a massive 228 points. Barton will likely slide into the starting lineup in Faried’s place, moving Chandler up to PF, and placing Barton on Melo. That’s a win for Melo:
He comes with 11 Pro Trends and low nine to 12 percent ownership on both sites.
Finally, if you want to pay up a bit more, Jimmy Butler is set to return for the Bulls after sitting out a couple games with a right heel contusion, and he gets a very nice matchup against T.J. Warren and the Suns, who are third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this year.
Butler is a fine play regardless of Wade’s status, but he’s especially elite if Wade sits out. In four games this year without his fellow star, Butler has averaged 55.9 DK points and a +15.0 Plus/Minus in 38.0 minutes per game.
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis is the most-expensive option at $10,900 FD (he’s $10,100 on DK, where he’s now center-only eligible) and faces a Minnesota squad that remains poor defensively, allowing 108.4 points/100 on the year. Brow has been consistent although somewhat unremarkable over his last seven games after going through a run of shortened games due to injury.
The Pelicans have been a much better team since moving Brow to center full-time, and that will definitely help him in this particular matchup, as Gorgui Dieng has been very poor as a rim protector this season:
Brow has a lot of upside in this matchup, as shown by his DK performance against them earlier this year:
Without the high-usage Dion Waiters in the lineup for Miami, it has actually been James Johnson who has seen the biggest bump in value this year.
In 16 games this year without Waiters, JJ has posted 26.9 DK points and a team-high +6.1 Plus/Minus in 24.9 minutes per game. He’s increased his usage rate by 3.9 percent in those contests and has also been a more efficient player, increasing his true shooting percentage by 1.1 percent. Johnson is certainly intriguing at only nine to 12 percent projected ownership against a Brooklyn team that has been the third-worst squad versus opposing PFs this year.
Like Brow, Nikola Jokic ($9,200 DK, $9,900 FD) is listed as a power forward on FD and a center on DK. Either way, since our Opponent Plus/Minus metric is adjusted for positional splits, Jokic has elite marks of +4.12 DK and +4.89 FD on both sites against a Knicks squad that has really struggled to defend big men. Jokic was barely below salary-based expectation last game against the Hawks, scoring 40.5 FD points, but the more important data point is that he played 34.3 minutes, which was the first time he’d been above 30 since injuring his hip. If he’s 100 percent again — and his minute load and 18-15 line suggests he is — he could absolutely demolish Kyle O’Quinn and a Knicks squad that ranks dead last in defensive rebound rate, grabbing only 74.6 percent of opponent misses.
Centers
Hassan Whiteside seems to be getting back from a prolonged slump . . .
. . . and he has a dream matchup tonight against a Brooklyn squad that ranks 27th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 47.9 of the available boards. Whiteside has been getting back to his rebounding ways lately and has just been more aggressive on the offensive end in general:
He was awful against them in two games just recently, but hopefully the re-energized version of Whiteside is here to stay.
Marcin Gortat is back to his consistent ways, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a +7.80 DK Plus/Minus over that time.
He’s also been rebounding the ball much better lately, and today he gets an Indiana team that ranks 28th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 47.8 percent of the available boards. Gortat remains way too cheap at only $6,100 on DK, where he comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and a nice +3.88 Opponent Plus/Minus.
And to jump back up to the high-salaried guys, Karl-Anthony Towns has a large +3.14 Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Pelicans, who have defended better lately — they rank ninth in defensive efficiency now, allowing 105.0 points/100 — but still struggle to defend PFs. He’s at home tonight, which means he’s on the correct side of his extreme home/road splits.
He’s been excellent of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.20 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He remains a better value on DK, where his $10,000 salary comes with 12 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
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