Hope you weren’t getting used to those one-course events with a regular cut after two rounds because this week we’re at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where there’s a multi-course rotation and just the top-60 golfers (and ties after the third round) make it to the fourth and final day. Even if you weren’t a huge golf fan in the past (prior to daily fantasy golf of course) you’ve maybe stumbled across this event on TV before. Bill Murray is always dressed up in goofy outfits hamming it up with the crowd.
Golfers will spend the first three days paired with celebrities as they play some five-hour rounds on three different courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula. Monterey is the easiest of the three courses while Spyglass is slightly harder than Pebble. The golfers who survive the cut will play the fourth and final round back at Pebble Beach. Because the event is intended for the celebrities to have fun, the rough is not nearly is penal as it typically is on a normal PGA Tour stop. All of the courses are short, and both accurate and long hitters can have success, especially those who score well on Par 5 holes.
This week I’m concentrating on Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg), Greens in Regulation (GIR), and Adjusted Par 5 Scoring (Adj P5).
The Big Three
Big Money
Once again, Jordan Spieth ($12,000) is the most expensive golfer in the field. Spieth’s 68.1 Long-term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) ranks third, his 16.6 LT Adj Bird Avg is second, and his -5.8 Adj P5 ranks third overall.
Spieth has started the 2017 season hot: His 67.6 Recent Adj Rd Score, 81.0 percent Recent GIR, -8.3 Recent Adj P5, and Recent Adj Bird Avg of 23 all rank either first or second in the field. He has three top-10 finishes in three 2017 starts, including two third-place finishes. He has averaged 111.33 DraftKings points per tournament (DK PPT) in those three tournaments. Per our Player Models, Spieth has produced a mammoth +33.10 Plus/Minus this year.
Spieth has also played well at this tournament: He’s made all four cuts, finishing no worse than 22nd at Pebble Beach with one top-five and one top-10 finish.
The Two Time Champion
Dustin Johnson ($11,800) is currently tied with Spieth atop the field with 11.1 percent odds to win. DJ is no stranger to winning here: He posted back-to-back wins in 2009 and 2010. He has made eight of nine cuts at this event and has six top-10 finishes.
Johnson’s 68.0 LT Adj Rd Score ranks second, his 69.6 percent LT GIR 20th, and his 16.3 LT Adj Bird Avg third. His fifth-ranked LT Driving Distance (314.4) and LT Adj P5 (-5.6) set him up nicely to go low at this track.
Johnson missed the cut at the Farmer’s Insurance Open two weeks ago but had sixth- and second-place finishes to start the year.
Still The World’s No. 1
Jason Day ($11,600) leads the field with both his 67.6 LT Adj Rd Score and -6 LT Adj P5. His 15.3 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks fourth, and he has hit 78.5 percent of Recent GIR in his two tournaments this year.
Day has made every cut with three top-six and two additional top-15 finishes in seven starts at Pebble Beach. He placed 11th last year. Like DJ, he missed the cut two weeks ago but did post a 12th-place finish to open the season at the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Phil Mickelson ($9,300): It’s hard to ignore Mickelson at this track. He has nine top-10 finishes in 20 starts with four wins and a second-place finish last year. Mickelson’s 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score is fifth, his 14.7 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for eighth, and his -4.6 LT Adj P5 is tied for 15th overall. He looked sharp at last week’s Phoenix Open and has finished in the top 25 of all three of his events in 2017.
Justin Rose ($9,200): Rose has two top-five finishes in two events this year, and he finished sixth at this event in his debut last season. His 67.0 Recent Adj Rd Score leads the field, his 77.1 percent Recent GIR is sixth, and his 20.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for third.
Patrick Reed ($8,300): Reed has made all four of his cuts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with two top-10 finishes including a sixth-place finish here last year. Reed’s 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score is eighth, his 15.0 LT Adj Bird Avg is seventh, and his -4.9 LT Adj P5 is tied for ninth.
J.J. Spaun ($7,900): Spaun is spitting fire right now with fourth- and ninth-place finishes in the past two weeks. Spaun’s 73 percent LT GIR leads the field, and both his 69.2 Recent Adj Rd Score and -4.4 LT Adj P5 are inside the top 25. Spaun has not played in this event previously.
Pat Perez ($7,300): Perez’s 68.9 Recent Adj Rd Score is inside the top 20, his 72.1 Recent GIR percentage is inside the top 25, and his 16.7 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for 16th overall. Perez has two top-five finishes in three events this year and is averaging 87.6 DK PPT. He has played well in this event with 12 of 14 made cuts and three top-10 finishes including two in the past three years.
Shane Lowry ($7,000): Lowry is too cheap this week. He’s played this event only twice, but he made both cuts and looked sharp last week on his way to a 16th-place finish at the Phoenix Open. Both Lowry’s 68.5 Recent Adj Rd Score and his 18.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg are tied for ninth, and his 73.7 Recent GIR percentage is in the top 15.
Cameron Smith ($6,900): Smith finished 11th here last year and has made two of three cuts in 2017. His 70.0 Recent Adj Rd Score, 69.6 percent Recent GIR, 15.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg, and -5 Recent Adj P5 score suggest he’s a great value this week.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve tweaked. Jimmy Walker ($8,800) is the adjusted model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Walker has made seven of nine cuts at this event with four top-10 finishes including a win in 2014. Walker has been shaky to start the year, missing two cuts in three events, but if any track could cure what ails him this would be it.
Last week’s Levitanimal, Webb Simpson, finished as the runner-up, losing on the fourth hole of a playoff. Simpson scored 111.5 DK points. [Editor’s Note: #NotSoHumbleBrag]
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Be sure to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
