Monday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
The Suns-Pelicans game currently boasts the highest Vegas total on the board at 221 points, as it features two teams that rank top-10 in pace, averaging 101.7 and 100.0 possessions per 48 minutes.
The two point guards headline this game, as Eric Bledsoe and Jrue Holiday both have nice Opponent Plus/Minus values of +2.56 and +2.34 on DraftKings. They are the same price there at $7,900, although Holiday ($8,000) is a whopping $1,300 cheaper than Bledsoe ($9,300) on FanDuel. Jrue has a better overall matchup against a Suns team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing a poor 109.3 points per 100 possessions. He’s also been the better DFS asset of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games and averaging an +8.30 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10. Given all of those factors, he’s the superior cash-game option, although Bledsoe did put up 51.25 DK points against this squad the last time they played in early December (per our Trends tool).
For the rest of the Phoenix guys, Devin Booker remains a cash-game option: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 outings, averaging a +4.53 DK Plus/Minus over that time. Further, he has an incredible one-on-one matchup against rookie SG Buddy Hield, who ranks 95th out of 98 eligible SGs this season with a miserable -2.71 Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
P.J. Tucker and T.J. Warren have both played well of late: Tucker has averaged an impressive +7.44 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10, and Warren has put up back-to-back games of 27-plus FD points in 36 minutes per game. They’re both better values on FD, where they have Bargain Ratings of 86 and 81 percent.
Tyson Chandler has come back to earth a bit lately, but he still has rebounding upside, especially against a New Orleans squad that struggles to rebound the ball: The Pelicans rank 29th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 47.5 percent of the available boards. At $5,100 and a projected ownership of just two to four percent on DK, he’s worth a couple shots in tournaments.
Anthony Davis is clearly the guy to roster against a poor Suns defense, especially since his price has dropped all the way to $10,300 on DK, where he has a huge 98 percent Bargain Rating and +2.41 Opponent Plus/Minus. The 34-year-old Chandler certainly has his hands full against the stud young big man:
However, after Davis and Jrue, the pickings become very slim among the Pels even though they’re currently implied for a slate-high 113 points. That probably tells you all you need to know about those two players in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
Point Guards
The Cavaliers are now the second-worst team versus opposing PGs this year, allowing a +5.67 DK Plus/Minus.
And they’ve been easily the worst team in January and February against the position:
John Wall is the lucky opponent tonight, and he’s coming off back-to-back games of 55.1 and 58.1 FD points. He’s stepped up his defensive game of late — he has eight steals in his last two contests — and he’s certainly one of the safest cash-game options in this entire slate.
The Nuggets have been the worst team all year against PGs, which means that whoever starts between Deron Williams (doubtful with a sprained toe) and Yogi Ferrell is in play. Ferrell has been a revelation starting for Williams recently, averaging an impressive 28.8 DK points and a +12.8 Plus/Minus, including a 45.5-point DK outing just last game.
He’s priced up now to $5,600 FD, so he’ll need 22.45 points to hit value, but that’s still realistic given his role without Deron and matchup with the Nuggets.
D’Angelo Russell and Derrick Rose should face off today (assuming Rose plays), and they’re both pretty terrible defensively. This game has a high Vegas total of 220 points and features two teams that rank in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency, allowing 110.3 and 107.9 points per 100 possessions. Russell has played very well of late, scoring 38.2, 40.9, and 47.4 FD points over his last three games and more importantly getting over 31 minutes per game. Rose has been volatile and is dealing with a sprained ankle, but he’s also using 26.5 percent of the possessions while on the floor and is only $5,700 on DK, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
On the extreme end, Russell Westbrook should have lower ownership given Wall’s and Davis’ incredible spots, but that never seems to be the case no matter the slate dynamics. He has a poor -1.68 Opponent Plus/Minus against an improved Pacers defense, and he’s still an incredible player against any matchup his baseline +6.28 FD Plus/Minus dips to ‘only’ +2.11 in tough matchups:
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
For as much as Denver struggles against point guards, the Nuggets also struggle against SGs. Seth Curry could have less value if Deron is able to go, but that might not matter too much given his recent play:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games, averaging a +9.76 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He leads all SGs easily with a +5.92 Opponent Plus/Minus, although not far behind him is his teammate Wesley Matthews, who just dropped 36.7 FD points in 40.2 minutes last game. Denver now ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.
DeMar DeRozan has been ruled out of five consecutive games with a sore right ankle, and Norman Powell has filled in admirably during his absence:
He has led the team with a +9.9 DK Plus/Minus differential in six games this season without DD, and he’ll get the start again if DeRozan remains out. He has a poor -1.09 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Clippers, but he’s also still only $4,800 on FD, where he needs just 18.93 points to hit value. At $5,500 DK, he might be someone to fade, especially since Curry is only $400 more in a far superior matchup.
On the other side of that matchup sits Jamal Crawford, who exceeded salary-based expectations yesterday by 18.85 DK points and remains only $4,700 today. The soon-to-be 37-year-old guard is on a back-to-back, but he’s surprisingly been very good in those games this year:
Jimmy Butler is a game-time decision today with a right heel contusion. He didn’t practice Sunday. In two games sans Butler this year, Dwyane Wade has led the Bulls with 34.1 DK points in 34.5 minutes. He’s the highest-priced SG at $7,800, but he has a high ceiling against a Kings team that ranks 26th on defense.
Small Forwards
The Cavaliers are currently one-point road dogs against the red-hot Wizards and implied for 109.25 points. LeBron James over the last three years hasn’t been a dog very often (9.3 percent of his games), but when he has been he’s been excellent:
The Cavs have been reeling of late, but Bron has still been stellar. He’s cheaper on DK today, where his position-high $10,400 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
The Knicks-Lakers game is much less exciting today than it was a couple decades ago, but it should still be quite entertaining from a DFS perspective given their above-average paces and poor defenses. Carmelo Anthony has faced the Lakers four times over the past couple years, and he’s been solid against them:
He’s been bad lately, scoring only 31.2, 17.6, and 31.0 FD points over his last three contests, but there’s no denying his upside in this matchup, especially against Luol Deng and a team without any solid one-on-one defenders.
Matt Barnes has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and put up 33.8 FD points in 33.5 minutes on Saturday against the Warriors. He’s grabbed 14, 10, and 11 rebounds over his last three outings and remains only $3,800 on FD, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Barnes isn’t a sexy play, but he has a nice matchup if Butler is out, and he brings more safety than potentially higher-owned value plays like C.J. Miles and Terrence Ross, who have low floors and should be somewhat popular given the injuries to Thaddeus Young (out) and DeRozan (doubtful). If you want to fit in two or even three of LeBron, Wall, and Davis, you’ll have to go cheap somewhere.
Power Forwards
Everything I said about Melo applies as well to Kristaps Porzingis. The Lakers suck at defense, and Porz will have quite an easy go at the basket against Tarik Black and Timofey Mozgov, neither of whom have been any good at defending the rim this year:
Thaddeus Young has been ruled out tonight against the Thunder, and in his lone game missed this year Lavoy Allen got the start and dominated.
In that game, he put up 18 points and 11 rebounds in 32.1 minutes. Per our NBA News feed, Kevin Seraphin didn’t even play in Saturday’s win, which suggests that Allen could be due for the lion’s share of the minutes at the PF spot again tonight. At just $3,700 DK (where he’s center-eligible only) and $3,500 FD (PF-eligible only), Allen gives a ton of needed salary relief.
Markieff Morris ($7,200) and Kevin Love ($7,600) sit only $400 from each other on FD and will face off tonight. Kieff finally disappointed last game, putting up only 22.8 FD points in 37.8 minutes against the Pelicans, but he’s been money in cash games for quite a while now.
Love has been dealing with nagging back spasms but has been excellent when he’s been able to play a full complement of minutes, as evidenced by his 40.7-point FD outing thanks to a 23-16 line last game against the Knicks. Washington has been a bottom-10 team in defensive rebound rate this year, allowing a 24.3 percent offensive rebound rate to opponents. Both teams have struggled against PFs specifically, and Kieff and Love have solid Opponent Plus/Minus marks on FD of +2.41 and +2.49. That said, because of slate dynamics, Love is projected at only five to eight percent ownership, compared to a chalky 17-20 percent for Kieff.
Centers
DeMarcus Cousins and Karl-Anthony Towns are the highest-priced centers in the slate at $11,000 and $10,200. Both have been excellent of late, averaging Plus/Minus values of +7.52 and +6.98 over their last 10 games. Given the differences in their salaries and matchups against the Bulls and Heat, Towns is likely the better value for DFS players paying up: The Heat are officially the worst team in the league versus opposing centers.
Also, the Wolves are currently one-point favorites at home, which means that KAT is on the right side of his extreme splits:
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Joakim Noah has been ruled out for tonight’s contest versus the Lakers, which means that both Guillermo Hernangomez and Kyle O’Quinn should be popular center value plays.
That doesn’t seem like incredible production, especially for Hernangomez, but if you combine that with his already-increased role of late . . .
. . . he’s a very nice punt play, even at $5,300 FD. He leads all centers with a +6.35 Opponent Plus/Minus and has incredible upside against Mozgov, who has been an absolute sieve defensively all over the floor this year.
The last guy we’ll discuss is Andre Drummond, who also has a massive +5.59 Opponent Plus/Minus and gets a Philly defense that will be without elite rim protector Joel Embiid yet again. Although the 76ers rank 15th defensively on the year, allowing 105.6 points per 100 possessions, that number drops all the way down to 111.8 without Embiid, which would easily be the worst mark in the league behind Denver’s. Drummond has struggled of late but dropped a 28-22 game against the Celtics just four games ago. He has massive upside and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership because of KAT and the value guys.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
