Sunday welcomes a modest three-game slate at 12pm ET.
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 216 over/under, Raptors -7
The Raptors and Nets have played three times this season. In the most recent meeting, Kyle Lowry was rested and Lucas Nogueira suffered an orbital fracture in the first eight minutes. The average pace for the first three games between these teams was 102.77 possessions per 48 minutes, which is roughly five possessions more than the Raptors’ season average and one possession fewer than the Nets’. The Raptors scored 116, 132, and 119 (without Lowry) in the three games, and the Nets help all opponents by ranking first in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency.
DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Patterson are both officially questionable. DeRozan missed six of the past seven games with a right ankle issue, and Patterson suffered a left knee contusion in Friday’s loss. Lowry missed practice on Saturday with an illness, and he was reportedly under the weather during Friday’s game. All three starters are at risk of missing today’s noon game, but since it’s the first game of the day, news should break early enough to adjust accordingly.
If DeRozan sits, Norman Powell will likely remain in the starting lineup. Powell doesn’t offer significant salary relief on DK ($5,700) anymore, but in the six games DeRozan has missed, Powell has averaged 27.5 DK points in 35.7 minutes. Playing time is the most important data point given the Nets’ high pace and deplorable defense. At $4,800 on FD, Powell will become an instant value play if given the starting nod.
If Patterson sits, Nogueira, Jared Sullinger, or Pascal Siakam may start, but that’s not a given since the Nets moved Rondae Hollis-Jefferson into the starting lineup over Trevor Booker. Nogueira is the most attractive of the three replacement candidates, and the last 13 times he played more than 20 minutes, he averaged 21.5 DK points.
If Lowry sits, I’m not sure what will transpire. Cory Joseph started against the Nets the last time Lowry rested, and he produced 42.8 FD points. However, Joseph might be in the doghouse: Fred VanVleet played 23 minutes as the backup point guard in Friday’s loss. Whoever starts at point guard will be close to a must-play. Point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Nets this season have recorded a +5.19 FD Plus/Minus on 70.4 percent Consistency, and Lowry has averaged 40.66 FD points on 87 percent Consistency in eight games against the Nets since the 2014-15 season. He’s averaged 40.9 minutes in the six games DeRozan has missed this season, and the lone point of contention regarding Lowry stems from any lingering illness.
A quick #NarrativeStreet interjection: It’s Terrence Ross‘ birthday. That’s either really good or really bad. The early start time concerns me because he spent the night in New York.
Who will Nets coach Kenny Atkinson rest today, and who does that help the most? Answers: Unknown and it likely won’t matter since they all play less than 30 minutes. Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead benefit from a +3.84 Plus/Minus for point guards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Raptors this season. Picking between both isn’t exactly Sophie’s Choice, but Whitehead has struggled in the starting lineup, where his usage rate drops 3.2 percent.
Brook Lopez‘s top Plus/Minus since the 2014-15 season has come against the Raptors. If you’re looking to spend up at center, Lopez offers substantial potential. Of the five games he’s rested this season, four were on the road and three were on either end of a back-to-back set. I’m not claiming he won’t rest today, but the Nets are at home and not playing on either side of a back-to-back set.
Los Angeles Clippers at Boston Celtics
Vegas: 222 over/under, Celtics -5.5
A 2pm ET start time will feel like an 11am game for the Clippers.
Playing Raymond Felton at small forward or forward on DraftKings doesn’t sound crazy on a three-game slate. Rostering Felton on either site is one way to circumvent the salary cap, but two roadblocks emerge when considering Felton: He might come off the bench, and he’s playing through a right shoulder issue. The first isn’t a crippling impediment. The second point is concerning in cash games, but when perusing the list of point guards, Felton immediately stands out in the Phan Model. He leads the position in Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s not playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford remain relatively cheap at their position. They both offer similar ceilings and floors, but Crawford is cheaper on both sites. Coach Doc Rivers limited Wesley Johnson and Luc Mbah a Moute to 11 combined minutes in the previous game, and that allowed Redick and Crawford both to play more than 34 minutes. The Celtics can match the Clippers’ three-guard sets, but expecting duplicate playing time from Redick and Crawford seems ambitious. It’s also unclear if Mbah a Moute will rejoin the starting lineup, and coach Rivers already confirmed he would get Paul Pierce minutes in what may be his final game in Boston.
Blake Griffin‘s floor is nearly double that of the next closest power forward. The alternatives on FD are so bad that Griffin profiles as a must-play. Otherwise, you’re dredging through the likes of Marreese Speights, Amir Johnson, Domantas Sabonis, Noah Vonleh, etc. You can be a little more creative on DK because of the dual-position eligibility, but Griffin still leads the position in Opponent Plus/Minus among projected starters.
DeAndre Jordan is the most expensive center option on DK and FD. Center is plenty deep on the slate, relegating Jordan to GPP status. However, he has a solid track record against the Celtics, and he costs $200-$400 more than the second- and third-most expensive centers. The scoring margin in the Clippers’ last six games has been double-digits, which has limited Jordan’s playing time and production. It bears mentioning that the Celtics rank 27th in defensive rebound rate since January 1st, and Jordan ranks third among rotation players in the same stat.
Avery Bradley’s status could unlock additional value on the three-game slate. He’s played three games since the beginning of January, and during that time frame, the Celtics rank third in offensive efficiency, assist rate, and true shooting percentage. The Celtics have yet to provide an update for Bradley in advance of today’s contest.
If Bradley is ruled out, Jaylen Brown will likely remain in the starting lineup. The volatility in his minutes and recent production limits his appeal to GPPs, but he’s cheap at $3,800 on DK and FD, and he leads the Celtics with a +3.00 DK Plus/Minus differential when Bradley sits. Isaiah Thomas has averaged 50.2 DK points in 14 games sans Bradley, and if Bradley is unable to play, Thomas will draw interest as a GPP pivot from the cheaper point guards.
Jae Crowder is the most expensive small forward on either platform, and he may be the most owned player on the slate due to positional scarcity. His prospects are improved by coach Rivers removing Mbah a Moute from the starting lineup and nearly the rotation (subject to change). That leaves one of Felton, Redick, or Austin Rivers to guard Crowder. During Griffin’s prolonged absence earlier this season, rostering opposing small forwards was a handy tactic due to the Clippers’ downsizing. Crowder has a solid matchup, he’s one of two small forwards presently projected to play at least 30 minutes, and he’s been too consistent to ignore in cash games.
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 216.5 over/under, Thunder -4.5
In four straight games sans Enes Kanter, the Thunder’s offensive efficiency has dropped to 95.0 points scored per 100 possessions. That ranks 29th in the league during that span, but it’s assuaged by the Thunder’s pace of 103.68 possessions per 48 minutes — first overall in the four-game sample.
Damian Lillard’s GPP ownership on DraftKings in eight games against the Thunder is slightly lower than his Consistency over that span: 37.2 percent versus 37.5 percent. He’s averaged 40.78 DK points in those games while maxing out at 34.25 points in five of the past six games. Conversely, his salary has dropped to a season-low $7,500 on DK, which is just begging for action. The last time the Thunder and Blazers played, Lillard was guarded by Russell Westbrook and C.J. McCollum was guarded by Andre Roberson. The Thunder were missing Victor Oladipo in that game, and Lillard missed a double-double by one assist in 30 minutes.
Al-Farouq Aminu replaced Noah Vonleh at the start of the third quarter during the Blazers’ most recent game, and he’s averaged 27.31 DK points over the past four games. He’s one of two power forwards on either site projected to play at least 30 minutes, and when considering the alternatives, Aminu instantly becomes one of the two or three viable players at his position.
Westbrook produced 36.0 DraftKings points in the first game against the Blazers this season, his second-lowest output (and lowest if you ignore the game he was ejected). In seven games against the Blazers since the 2014-15 season, he’s exceeded 63 DK points in five instances and contributed less than 40 DK points twice. Westbrook is easily the most expensive option on the slate, and his ceiling is unrivaled. Below is an image of three trends I’ve created and their accompanying Plus/Minus marks on DK. The Consistency for each is as follows: 83.9 percent, 82.6 percent, and 87.5 percent.
When all three trends are combined, I am Captain Planet this is the result:
It appears we’ve stumbled across the ace of spades.
Steven Adams‘ history against the Trail Blazers is solid (image below). Now that Kanter is sidelined, Adams and Joffrey Lauvergne are subject to additional minutes at center, a group that has averaged a +4.62 FD Plus/Minus against Portland this season (minimum 18 minutes projected). In four games sans Kanter, Adams has averaged 33.3 minutes per game, up from his season-long average of 30.5. Lauvergne is in the mix as a punt play at $3,200 on DK, but his increased playing time in the previous game may have been matchup-driven.
Roberson has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 straight home games on FD, and his 84 percent Consistency at home is the sixth-highest mark for a player with at least 15 such games. The problem for Roberson is that he barely clears the bar. He does the bare minimum, much like Jennifer Aniston’s character in the film Office Space where she wears 15 pieces of flair to meet the requirement. Roberson needs to be mentioned strictly due to the lack of small forwards.
News Updates
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