Friday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
This game doesn’t have the prestige that the ’80s Bird-Magic showdowns did, but it should be high scoring nonetheless. The Lakers are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back series after losing 116-108 last night in Washington, and somehow the Vegas spread has actually moved slightly in LA’s favor since opening.
D’Angelo Russell was easily the Lakers’ best player last night, and he’s now put up back-to-back games of 40.9 and 47.4 FanDuel points. Tonight he gets a Celtics team that has been very poor against opposing PGs this season. Per our Trends tool:
That is likely due to the awful defense of Isaiah Thomas, who ranks 86th out of 86 eligible PGs with a -4.44 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. (There’s your argument if you’re anti-Thomas-as-an-MVP-candidate, by the way.)
Julius Randle was made available to play last night after dealing with pneumonia, but he was limited to only 5.6 minutes. It’s unclear whether he will start or see a bump in minutes today. Luol Deng and Tarik Black could see elevated minutes. Black received the start alongside Timofey Mozgov, but it was Deng who was the only player other than Russell to see at least 30 minutes of action. He finished with 25.2 FD points in 31.9 minutes, although it’s tough to see that continuing tonight in a tough matchup with Jae Crowder. For that reason, Russell is the Brook Lopez of the Lakers: He’s the only guy getting minutes and thus the only guy you want to roster. Lou Williams might be the exception — he’s had two 40-point FD outings over his last five games — but if he gets fewer than 25 minutes it’ll be hard to hit value against Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, who could be back tonight.
Isaiah Thomas is the second-most expensive PG in the slate at $10,500 FD, but it’s warranted:
He’s scored 50-plus FD points in three straight outings and now gets a Lakers squad that ranks seventh in pace, averaging 100.2 possessions per 48 minutes, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.3 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers just gave up 58.1 FD points last night to John Wall, and they’ve been a bottom-10 team against opposing PGs all season.
That said, if Bradley were to return, it’s not disastrous by any means for Thomas — and especially this version of Thomas — but it’s not great, either:
According to our NBA On/Off tool, Thomas has averaged 7.2 more DK points and a +2.6 DK Plus/Minus differential without Bradley. He increases his usage rate by 1.9 percentage points and plays an average of 2.5 minutes more per game. Bradley might not return tonight, and it might not matter even if he does because of the Lakers’ poor defense, but the Thomas-Bradley dynamic will matter soon, especially since Thomas’ salary has skyrocketed.
Jae Crowder missed value last game by 0.74 FD points, but his recent track record is still impeccable:
Over his last 10 games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine outings and has averaged a robust +8.10 FD Plus/Minus.
Al Horford will be the last player we discuss from this game, and he has quite the enticing matchup. He’s third among all projected starters (at all positions) with a +4.96 Opponent Plus/Minus on DK, where his low $6,800 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He disappointed last game, scoring only 25.75 DK points in 31.8 minutes, but it’s difficult to overstate just how bad the Lakers’ frontcourt is defensively.
Point Guards
Of the PGs priced at least $7,000, it’s clear which two stand out in terms of matchups.
Jeff Teague really struggled last game against the Magic, scoring only 22.7 FD points in 34.3 minutes. He’s been slightly worse this year on the road . . .
. . . but he’s also going against a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace, averaging 104.0 possessions/48, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.5 points/100.
Kyle Lowry‘s value hinges on the availability of his backcourt mate, DeMar DeRozan, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury that has sidelined him for the past two games. Put simply, Lowry is dynamite sans DeRozan:
In five games this season without DeRozan, Lowry has averaged 46.4 DK points and a +5.3 Plus/Minus in a ridiculous 40.6 minutes per game. He was in a tough spot last game playing the second leg of a road back-to-back (he played 44.9 minutes the night before in an OT game) but still put up 42.9 FD points in 37.9 minutes. Sometimes, DFS is simple: If DD is out, Lowry is in play.
Yogi Ferrell has played 37.7, 37.6, and 35.6 minutes over his last three games while starting for Deron Williams, who is listed as doubtful for today’s game with a sprained toe. How has he been in the starting role? Pretty darn good:
FD has been slow to price up players, and Yogi is still only $4,900 there with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He needs only 19.37 FD points to hit value, and he’s scored significantly higher than that during his starting stint.
The Coors Field of NBA DFS: Point guards projected for at least 15 fantasy points have absolutely crushed the Nuggets this season.
Hello, Malcolm Brogdon.
Shooting Guards
James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the two highest-priced options in the slate, as usual. Harden looked unstoppable last night, dropping 71.5 DK points in 38.6 minutes against the Hawks, but he is on a back-to-back against a Chicago team that ranks 22nd in pace, averaging 97.4 possessions/48, and seventh in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.4 points/100. There’s a good chance Jimmy Butler could slide down to guard him, and Harden has historically struggled against the Bulls.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Giannis is in the opposite boat: He struggled last game, putting up only 21.2 FD points in 38.8 minutes against the Jazz, but now he gets a solid matchup against the Nuggets, who are tied for the worst defense in the league with the Lakers, allowing an embarrassing 110.3 points/100. In a matchup against projected starting wing Juan ‘Juancho’ Hernangomez, which will might set the NBA record for most letters in a one-on-one matchup (35), Giannis has the edge.
Devin Booker hasn’t flashed a guaranteed prize pool ceiling lately, but he’s been incredibly consistent for cash games:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a +4.94 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He has 10 Pro Trends currently and gets a solid matchup against a Sacramento team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.3 points/100. This is a significant ‘pace-down’ game for the Suns — they average 5.2 more possessions/48 than the Kings — but in the 2017 calendar year Booker has been lights out regardless of pace.
Small Forwards
Speaking of pace: Jimmy Butler is in a significant ‘pace-up’ game for the Bulls, as the Rockets outpace them by 4.3 possessions/48. Butler has bounced back over the last two games, scoring 45.3 and 53.1 FD points, after having his worst outing of the year against the Heat, in which he scored only 8.6 FD points in 33.4 minutes of action. He will likely be tasked with guarding Harden, but he’s been just fine DFS-wise in this matchup:
He’s the highest-priced SF option at $9,400, but he brings a lot of safety against a Houston squad that has allowed 1.74 FD points above salary-based expectations to SFs this season.
See if you can spot the outlier over Paul George‘s last five games:
Shooting only 14 shots and making only three of them certainly isn’t ideal, but a matchup against a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace and third-worst on defense certainly is. He’s second among all SFs with a DK Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.18 against the Nets, who have been the second-worst team versus SFs this season.
Nothing cures a DFS ailment quite like a matchup against Brooklyn.
For what it’s worth, the player with a higher Opponent Plus/Minus today is Wilson Chandler, who played only 25 minutes last game against the Grizzlies but gets a brilliant matchup versus Jabari Parker, who has guarded opposing SFs this year to let Giannis protect the rim.
Per our Trends tool, the Suns have given up the highest Plus/Minus to opposing SFs this year:
Unfortunately taking advantage of that would require rostering Matt Barnes. However, value SFs are hard to come by and Barnes has dropped 22.8 and 26.3 DK points over his last two games, and he got 30 minutes in his last outing versus the Rockets. He’s only $3,700 FD against T.J. Warren, who has struggled to defend opposing SFs this year (along with all of the Suns wings):
We’re all looking forward to Barnes’ final 6.7 DK points tonight.
Power Forwards
The three highest-salaried PFs in the slate all come from the Denver-Milwaukee game in Nikola Jokic (questionable), Jabari Parker, and Kenneth Faried (probable).
Jokic has been upgraded to probable for today’s game, and he did this prior to sitting out with this recent hip injury:
His presence greatly affects the value of Faried, who has scored 2.5 more DK points without Jokic in the lineup and also increased the pace by 1.7 possessions/48. Also, for whatever it’s worth, Will Barton (questionable) has averaged an +11.3 DK Plus/Minus differential in two games sans Jokic. Anyway, if Jokic is in and not under a restriction, he’s in play for tournaments. If he’s out, ditto for Faried.
And let’s not forget about Jabari, who has been awful over the last two games, scoring 26.4 and 12.1 FD points against the Jazz and the Celtics, but he gets a pace-up situation and nice matchup versus a Denver team that now ranks dead last in defensive efficiency. He likely will see reduced ownership because of recency bias, and he arguably has the position’s highest ceiling if Jokic is ruled out.
Dirk Nowitzki has also been poor lately:
However, he’s not playing on a back-to-back, which unsurprisingly has been a big deal for the 38-year-old future Hall of Famer.
He gets a brilliant matchup tonight against a Portland team that ranks ninth in pace, averaging 100.0 possessions/48, and 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.5 points/100. The Blazers been one of the five worst teams all year against opposing PFs projected for at least 15 fantasy points.
Quick shout-out to Serge Ibaka, who has dropped 40.3 and 36.0 FD points in his last two outings, is shooting incredible percentages all over the floor on a Magic team that has essentially zero spacing, and is constantly on the negative end of trade jokes.
He leads all PFs today with 11 Pro Trends on FD, where his $6,000 salary comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Centers
Myles Turner has a +7.13 FD Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Nets, which is easily the highest mark in the entire slate among all positions. The Nets are #notgood against pretty much every position, but they’re especially poor against big men:
Turner struggled in his last game, scoring only 23.1 FD points in 31.6 minutes versus the Magic, but he’s still averaging a +2.77 Plus/Minus over his last 10 contests, and he dropped 55 FD points in this exact matchup almost a month ago.
DeMarcus Cousins and Karl-Anthony Towns are the two highest-priced options at $11,300 and $10,800 today. This one is probably simple: Boogie is at home, where he has positive splits . . .
. . . and faces a Suns team that ranks third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. KAT, on the other hand, is on the road, where he has negative splits . . .
. . . and faces a Detroit team that ranks 26th in pace and 12th in defensive efficiency.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Mason Plumlee is an interesting pivot away from the likely chalkiness of Turner: He’s $500 more expensive on FD (he’s actually $600 cheaper on DK) but also gets a Dallas team that ranks dead last in rebound rate, grabbing only 46.6 percent of the available boards. Plumlee has grabbed at least 10 boards in each of his last seven games and has averaged a nice +5.55 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10. He does have a big pricing discrepancy as shown above, and his $6,300 DK salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a large 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
