Thursday offers a four-game slate in which three teams are presently favored by double digits and the fourth is a nine-point Vegas favorite. It all kicks off at 7pm ET.
Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards
Vegas: 218.5 over/under, Wizards -11
Julius Randle will have his minutes limited if he plays, and he’s reportedly lost weight after being diagnosed with pneumonia. It’s unclear if he’ll start, but since his playing time will be capped he doesn’t offer much value. Tarik Black started the past two games sans Randle, but his production has been muted. The breakaway star over the past three games has been Ivica Zubac, who has recorded career-highs in scoring in three straight games, averaging 30.0 DraftKings points over that span. He’s still cheap enough on DK to consider in all formats.
In the three games D’Angelo Russell has played without Randle this season he’s averaged 34.9 DK points in 32.1 minutes. The playing time is more important than the production because coach Luke Walton won’t hesitate to play Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson extended minutes. Nonetheless, Russell’s most recent performance came against the worst team at defending point guards, restricting his appeal to guaranteed prize pools.
John Wall as a favorite in a home game against the Lakers? I’m not sure if it gets any better than that for Wall (per our Trends tool):
He’s the most expensive point guard on FanDuel and DK, and he’s done well in his previous four games against the Lakers. As Bill Monighetti detailed in the Wall scouting report, you want to target Wall when he’s a home favorite.
Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat are negatively correlated this season, but rostering both in cash games isn’t an obtuse move because of the matchup. Morris has averaged an +8.22 DK Plus/Minus over the past 10 games, and he’s scored fewer than 30.0 DK points once in the past 13 contests. He’s what Wilmer Valderrama consistently referred to in MTV’s Yo Momma as “cash money.” Gortat will go overlooked because of the plethora of cheaper options at center, but he has recorded a double-double in three straight games, and centers projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Lakers this season have averaged a +5.41 DK Plus/Minus on 64.4 percent Consistency.
Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets
Vegas: 225 over/under, Rockets -10
The Hawks have been extremely erratic in their overall performance over the past two weeks, and almost every game during that stretch has been a blowout in one way or the other. Relying on them is difficult in cash games, but the last time they faced the Rockets Dwight Howard and Dennis Schroder provided 48.0 and 39.25 DK points.
Paul Millsap has a solid history against the Rockets, and he gets one of the easiest matchups on the slate. Millsap may have been hampered in Wednesday’s blowout loss after playing 60 minutes on Sunday. However, none of the Hawks’ starters played more than 26 minutes. The blowout potential, which has been the norm for the Hawks lately, combined with their quadruple overtime win on Sunday limits appeal team-wide to GPPs. Millsap has traditionally been a cash game target, but the value at power forward is fairly set and it’s unclear if his dud last night was due to tired legs or the defense of Luke Babbitt.
The Rockets may be loaded with the most appealing options on the slate, primarily James Harden. He already posted 65.75 DK points against the Hawks this season, and when the Rockets have been at least 9.0-point favorites Harden has averaged 56.6 FD points on 72.7 percent Consistency. Harden is the most expensive option on either platform, and with Thabo Sefolosha‘s status in limbo Harden may also have the easiest matchup of all the high-priced studs. Back-to-back duds are concerning, but shooting guards have been one of the most productive plays against the Hawks this season, averaging a +3.83 DK Plus/Minus (projected 18 minutes minimum).
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
The matchup also bodes well for Eric Gordon, who has generated a +3.58 DK Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency when the Rockets are favored by at least 10 points this season. He doesn’t offer a GPP ceiling, but his 86 percent Bargain Rating certainly stands out at a top-heavy position.
Trevor Ariza hasn’t been a bankable DFS asset against the Hawks, recording his lowest average DFS production against them.
Clint Capela started against the Hawks on December 5th, and that should theoretically give him the inside track to start tonight, the first game of a back-to-back set. Who coach Mike D’Antoni decides to start at center between Capela, Nene Hilario, and Montrezl Harrell will likely play the most minutes among the three. Capela has been a workhorse at home this season, and he’s one of the several cheap options at center. He’s not the value play, but his track record at Toyota Center at least offers a decent floor at less than $5,000.
Philadelphia Sixers at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 212.5 over/under, Spurs -14.5
The Sixers are playing their seventh game in 10 days as well as their fourth game in five nights — a solid red flag. I’m not sure if Joel Embiid is with the Sixers for tonight’s game, and Robert Covington was diagnosed with a right hand contusion on Wednesday.
Jahlil Okafor has started the past two games, but he was dealing with a sore right knee as recently as a week ago. The Sixers will likely forego shootaround, so we won’t know if Okafor is unavailable until closer to game time. If Nerlens Noel starts, that may be a sign that Okafor is available off the bench with the chance he gets the night off. Noel’s salary has been driven up to $6,000 DK and $6,200 FD, hindering his value. Okafor is still cheap, but he’s struggled to meet salary-based expectations in three straight starts while accumulating nine total rebounds in those game.
The most consistent Sixer on the road this season, outside of Embiid, has been Ersan Ilyasova. Many of those contests have come with Embiid sidelined. Ilyasova offers a high floor and minimal ownership based on previous instances.
On the Spurs side, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol won’t be available to play. That likely means two of David Lee, Davis Bertans, and Dewayne Dedmon will start.
When Aldridge and Gasol are off the court (per our On/Off tool), Kawhi Leonard averages 1.9 DK points per minute and a team-best +8.6 percent usage rate differential. Dedmon and Lee rank second in point-per-minute production, and both are cheap enough to become the value plays of the slate at their positions. Leonard headlines a thin small forward position, and with Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot likely to start for the injured Covington (downgraded to doubtful) Leonard will be the chalk at small forward.
Tony Parker has been a consistent force at home this season, and his salary has dropped to the point where he needs to produce 19 DFS points in order to pay back his salary. Without Aldridge and Gasol, Parker’s assist rate has improved by 9.5 percentage points and his usage rate by 3.1. I’m not sure if Parker will get the night off, but if you’re scraping for value Parker certainly fits the bill.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas: 227 over/under, Warriors -9
The Warriors will be without Zaza Pachulia and David West. Shaun Livingston is officially doubtful, and the Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight straight times by an average of 12.88 points. When the Warriors and Clippers met on January 28th, the Warriors scored 144 points and Stephen Curry exploded for 66.75 DK points in 29 minutes. Curry added 68.25 DK points last night in 30.2 minutes, and his salary has barely budged on DK. The blowout potential is immense, but Curry leads all point guards with 100 percent Consistency and 84 percent Upside on DK over the past month, and he’s been the catalyst for the Warriors’ last two blowout wins. He’s still safe in cash games because of the low salary on DK, and his ceiling was already seen against the Clippers last week.
JaVale McGee offers valid (though scary) value at center at minimum salary on DK and FD. In 10 minutes against the Clippers last week, he produced 16.25 DK points, and in three starts this season, he’s averaged 19.75 DK points in 16.3 minutes. The playing time is concerning, but if you’re going for a true punt play, McGee offers plenty of salary cap relief at a position filled with value.
J.J. Redick has not performed well as an underdog this season (see below), nor has he historically offered a positive Plus/Minus on the second night of back-to-back sets. Jamal Crawford is a cheaper, more volatile option. They both rely heavily on scoring.
Raymond Felton potentially offers cap relief at point guard, but his stats on the second night of back-to-backs aren’t encouraging. He’s also reportedly dealing with a right shoulder injury, and he’s likey to come off the bench tonight after starting on Wednesday.
Power forward is a wasteland on this four-game slate, and with Draymond Green out Blake Griffin is fairly attractive even though this will be the first time he’s played on the second night of a back-to-back since returning from right knee surgery. He’s primarily a GPP consideration on DK, where he provides a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
