Tuesday brings a six-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
This game has the highest Vegas total of the day at 228 points and will likely have highly-owned players in tonight’s slate.
The Lakers will be without Julius Randle for another game, and in their last game sans Randle it was Tarik Black who got the start alongside Timofey Mozgov. That said, the minutes among the LA frontcourt rotation have been widely distributed, and it’s actually been Ivica Zubac who has seen the biggest bump in value. Per our On/Off tool:
I got a question yesterday about on/off data and how to interpret it. The question was about James Jones, who actually had the biggest boost in value and usage rate with Kevin Love out of the game, as he was last night. However, a guy like Jones, who may jump from an average of seven DraftKings points to 14 points — a large net difference of seven points — still isn’t a viable option because 14 fantasy points still won’t cut it. Just because a guy has impressive “differential” numbers doesn’t mean his final numbers are worthy. Thomas Robinson is a good example of this today: In five games without Randle, he leads the team with a usage increase of 3.3 percentage points. However, he’s still playing only 16.1 minutes and scoring an average of 19 DK points.
Zubac isn’t much better in terms of raw DK points, but he is seeing 21.7 minutes in these games and averaged a superior 1.0 points per possession. Combine that with his recent boost in playing time — he’s scored 31.5 and 33.0 DK points in 26.3 and 27.7 minutes over his last two games — and he becomes a viable punt play at only $3,500 DK and $3,900 FD. Larry Nance Jr. is a riskier option. And Brandon Ingram, who this year has seen an increase in usage of 2.3 percentage points without Randle, could also become a viable punt play if he’s moved into the starting lineup instead of Black. None of these guys will see heavy minutes, but they are facing a Denver team that ranks fifth in pace, averaging 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.9 points per 100 possessions.
Lou Williams has been the Laker to roster in guaranteed prize pools — he has four games of at least 34 FD points in his last six contests — but Jordan Clarkson has been the most consistent daily fantasy sports asset lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +5.46 FD Plus/Minus during that time. Denver is easily the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs this year, allowing an average +7.5 Plus/Minus. If D’Angelo Russell is able to suit up, he’s worthy of rostering in GPPs for this reason, too.
With Nikola Jokic on the floor this year, the Nuggets are averaging 118.5 points per 100 possessions, which would easily be the league’s best mark extrapolated over the season: The Warriors currently rank first with 113.7 points scored per 100 possessions. Without Jokic, the Nuggets are averaging 106.3 points per 100 possessions, which is almost exactly league-average. There’s certainly reason to believe that the Nuggets offense will disappoint without Jokic, who is currently doubtful with a strained left hip. However, they still have the talent to put up points against a poor defense — they scored 123 against the Suns on Saturday in their first game sans Jokic — and today they get a Lakers squad that ranks seventh in pace, averaging 100.1 possessions/48, and dead last on defense, allowing 110.2 points/100.
There are quite a few notable injuries for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray did not practice Monday and is “50/50” to play tonight. His fellow PG Emmanuel Mudiay traveled with the Nuggets but is questionable and had been aiming for Wednesday’s game against the Grizzlies for a return. Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried are both probable.
Jameer Nelson is a strong play at PG even if only one of Murray or Mudiay is out, and he becomes an elite cash-game option if both are ruled out. In five games without Mudiay this season, Nelson has averaged 33.9 minutes, 26.5 DK points, and a +6.8 Plus/Minus. Gary Harris will likely see a bump as well: He’s averaged 31.4 minutes and 25.2 DK points without Mudiay, and he’ll likely share backup PG duties with Will Barton. The on/off numbers without Jokic in the game this season confirm both Harris and Barton as enticing plays:
Among the big guys, Jusuf Nurkic received only 15.5 minutes last game despite starting for Jokic. Kenneth Faried saw the biggest bump in value, scoring 47.6 FD points in 36.7 minutes of action. The Nuggets relied on their vets in Faried and Danilo Gallinari to keep the offense afloat without Jokic — Gallo had 42.1 FD points in 37.5 minutes — and they’ll likely be called on to do so again tonight, especially if the Nuggets are without two of their three primary ball-handlers. That said, there’s a ton of uncertainty in this game (for both the Lakers and the Nuggets). Their prices suggest they’re cash-game plays, but be careful about ownership given their volatile roles and minute loads.
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook is a fantasy gawd, but even he can’t combat the defense of the Spurs:
That said, he has yet to play them this season and, but he showed at the end of last year that he can put up big games against anyone. His $12,300 price tag is likely too much for cash games, but he’s worthy of rostering in GPPs still.
Kyle Lowry and Kemba Walker both have nice matchups against the Pelicans and Blazers. Overall, New Orleans’ defense has been solid since moving Anthony Davis to center — they rank seventh on the season — but they’ve had trouble lately with PGs specifically:
Kemba has the opposite trend: The Blazers have been above average against PGs lately, but they still rank 25th in defensive efficiency on the year, giving up 108.7 points per 100 possessions. In their first meeting two weeks ago, Kemba dropped 37.9 FD points in only 32 minutes. His matchup against Damian Lillard is certainly one he can win:
Now that Derrick Rose has been ruled out for the Knicks, Brandon Jennings will likely get the start and immediately become a cash-game staple. In six games without Rose this year, Jennings has averaged a team-high 36.3 minutes to go along with 29.5 DK points and an +8.9 Plus/Minus. The matchup against a Washington defense that has moved up to 12th in defensive efficiency isn’t ideal, but Jennings’ $5,100 price tag and expanded role is too juicy to fade in cash on DK.
John Wall and Jrue Holiday are also worth considering, especially in plus matchups against the Knicks and Raptors. Jennings fights on defense, but he’s undersized and ranks 74th out of 87 eligible PGs this season with a -2.30 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM). The Knicks overall are poor on defense, allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions; Wall may be a bit overlooked given Lowry’s and Walker’s price tags. Jrue has crushed over his last four . . .
. . . and faces a Raps team that has been the third-worst squad versus opposing PGs this year, allowing an average of 30.64 DK points and a +4.82 Plus/Minus.
Shooting Guards
James Harden followed up an 87.1-point FD outing against the 76ers with a poor 31.0-point dud in 31.8 minutes on Sunday against the Pacers. He had only 15 points and eight turnovers in that game and will look to bounce back against a Sacramento team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency this year, allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions. He’s easily the most expensive SG option in the slate at $12,500 FD, and he has a poor -0.44 Opponent Plus/Minus despite Sacramento’s poor defense, which suggests that pace is more important than matchups.
Victor Oladipo has been very consistent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last five and averaging a +4.00 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10.
None of the top SG options today have elite matchups outside of possible Bradley Beal, who has been very inconsistent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in only six of his last 10 games.
That suggests perhaps paying down at the SG spot for Dipo, and it also makes Lou Williams more intriguing as a GPP option.
On the other side of that Washington-New York game sits Courtney Lee, who should remain in the starting lineup, where he’s been excellent of late:
He’s posted three straight games of 34-plus DK points, although the most recent game notably came in 52.3 minutes against the Hawks. Still, at only $4,300 DK he’s worth considering as he’ll likely continue to receive 30-plus minutes. This game has a fairly-high Vegas total at 216.5 points.
Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard has struggled in his last two games but had been a beast prior to that:
He has a tough one-on-one matchup against Andre Roberson today, but in the past three games against Roberson he has still been excellent.
Note: On and Off Court refer to Roberson in the above image.
If you don’t feel like testing that matchup, Carmelo Anthony is only $7,500 DK and has performed well without Rose this season.
If you want a value play, Evan Turner has been a nice DFS asset lately even if he hasn’t lived up to his $70 million contract this season but:
The fact that he took more shots (17) than Lillard or C.J. McCollum last game is almost certainly a detriment to the Portland offense, but it’s great for daily fantasy NBA. At only $4,800 FD, he should have plenty of minutes to hit value, even against a good wing defender in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Power Forwards
What do you know? When Anthony Davis is able to play a full allotment of minutes, he’s pretty darn good: He put up 64.9 FD points in 39.9 minutes on Sunday thanks to 36 real points, 17 rebounds, three assists, three steals, and two blocks. He gets a nice matchup against a Toronto team that has struggled defensively this season after losing Bismack Biyombo in free agency, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency and allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions. That said, the Pelicans are currently implied for only 103 points — the second-lowest mark in the slate — and are eight-point dogs against the Raps. Brow has historically struggled in similar situations, which (along with his injury history) takes him out of cash games, but he’s still worth pursuing in GPPs given his high ceiling.
Markieff Morris has been one of the most consistent cash-game options over the past couple of weeks.
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games and has averaged a ridiculous +9.26 FD Plus/Minus during that time. His price hasn’t budged in three games, and he’ll stay at $6,900 FD against a Knicks team that ranks 24th defensively this season and has allowed an average of 27.7 3-pointers per game. Further, he’s been rebounding the ball excellently of late, and New York ranks 27th in defensive rebound rate, giving up 25 percent of the available offensive boards.
Ryan Anderson had his best game in weeks on Sunday, scoring 37.4 FD points on 27 real points and five 3-pointers. However, the more important data point is that he’s been playing massive minutes over his last three games:
He’s very volatile and scoring-dependent, but that’s worth pursuing against a Sacramento team that has given up 1.30 points per shot this year — the second-highest mark in the league. They’ve also allowed 3-point shooters to hit 37.6 percent of their shots, which is the fourth-highest mark this season.
Centers
DeMarcus Cousins has been absolutely on fire lately:
He’s put up at least 60 FD points in four of his last six games, and even though he’s expensive at $11,400 FD, he needs only 47.91 points to hit value. He’s a solid bet to do that tonight against a Houston team that remains below average defensively on the year, allowing 106.2 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets will likely have to shift around on defense to get the bigger Clint Capela on Boogie, but honestly Houston doesn’t have a single defender who can handle him right now.
He leads the entire slate along with Westbrook with 15 FD Pro Trends.
The Lakers bigs will be the value plays of the slate, but look to Marcin Gortat as a contrarian option. As mentioned above, the Knicks are especially poor at grabbing defensive rebounds this year, and Gortat has bounced back nicely over his last two games after struggling, putting up lines of 17-11 and 15-12. His minutes have dipped a bit, but he should still see close to 30 against a very poor Knicks defense. Gortat is a better value on DK, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating and a +3.92 Opponent Plus/Minus and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Outside of Cousins, the only two centers currently projected for 30-plus minutes are Steven Adams and Mason Plumlee. Adams has struggled lately and has a brutal matchup: The Thunder are currently 9.5-point road dogs implied for a slate-low 100.25 points against the Spurs. Plumlee is more expensive at $6,500 DK, but he’s been quite good lately:
The Hornets have been solid defensively as usual under Steve Clifford’s guidance, but Plumlee has shown the ability to hold his own against tough matchups.
At only five to eight percent projected ownership, Plumlee has a ceiling worthy of targeting in GPPs, especially with the likely chalkiness of Cousins and the cheap LA guys.
Good luck!
News Updates
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