Sunday brings an eight-game main slate at 3pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers got a much-needed win on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets after dropping six of their previous eight games. That said, it’s hard to compare the 9-38 Nets, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency, to Russell Westbrook and the Thunder.
While LeBron James‘ complaint about the team being top-heavy isn’t completely relevant to DFS, he’s not wrong: Outside of LeBron, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love, no Cavs player projected for more than 10 minutes is also projected to use even close to 20 percent of the possessions while on the floor. LeBron, Kyrie, and Love combined for 114.37 FD points last game. For high-level players who all use a lot of possessions, their DFS production is highly correlated.
That doesn’t mean you must use all three players in your DFS lineups, but they should all be on your radar: They’re all averaging between 25 and 31 percent usage. LeBron has the most difficult matchup against Andre Roberson, who is eighth among all eligible SFs with a +1.91 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM), but he also holds the highest DraftKings Bargain Rating at 95 percent. That distinction on FD belongs to Love (75 percent), who has recorded four straight double-doubles, including three straight games of at least 14 rebounds. The matchup versus Steven Adams is tough — the Thunder rank third in rebound rate — but Love has a higher floor and ceiling without Enes Kanter and his rebounding prowess on the court.
Speaking of Kanter, we don’t have a representative sample of what the Thunder frontcourt rotation will look like without him. Per our On/Off tool, Steven Adams has seen the best DK Plus/Minus with Kanter off the floor, but that makes sense since their minutes can be staggered.
Adams is now the Thunder’s only above-average big man on the roster, so he does bring a lot of safety at the position, especially at only $5,600 on DK. The Cavs have held opposing centers to 0.69 DK points below salary-based expectations in the past year, but someone has to play heavy minutes at the center position.
In the future, it makes sense for the Thunder to play small, even with Roberson at the four spot, but that likely can’t happen today against LeBron and Love. As a result, they’ll probably start Domantas Sabonis as usual and mix in equal parts of Joffrey Lauvergne. You might remember King Joff from Denver’s frontcourt rotation last year. When he was projected for at least 20 minutes last season, Joff wasn’t terrible (per our Trends tool):
There’s a lot of uncertainty with the Thunder rotation, but Joff costs only $3,300 DK and $3,500 FD: That’s worth at least one tournament dart, right?
What is not uncertain is that the Cavs defense has been awful lately, especially at the PG spot. The Cavs have been pretty much the worst team in the league over the last month against PGs projected for at least 15 DK points.
That’s bad news considering Russell Westbrook is in town and just dropped 59.1 FD points in 35.2 minutes against the slow-paced Mavs. He’ll be without his best pick-and-roll partner in Kanter, who was using a high 26.6 percent of his possessions while on the floor. Those possessions will likely be distributed across the Thunder roster throughout the next month, but it’s not ridiculous to think that in the first game without Kanter the Thunder will rely heavily on Westbrook to shoot and generate offense. The sky is the limit on his usage projection, which means that both his ceiling and floor are incredibly difficult to fade, even at $12,600 FD.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Point Guards
Westbrook is the stud of the slate, and Brandon Jennings will be the chalky value play. Derrick Rose is currently doubtful for today’s game against the Hawks, and in five games without Rose this season Jennings has averaged a team-high 32.9 minutes.
He was quite a value, averaging 27.6 DK points and a +6.8 Plus/Minus, and his average salary is actually a bit higher than it is today at $4,400. The Hawks have a tough defense, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency, but they are weak against opposing PGs.
Stephen Curry was questionable to play last night and then dropped 60.8 FD points in 28.9 minutes thanks to 43 real points, nine rebounds, and six assists. He didn’t play in the fourth quarter, mostly because he dropped 25 points in the third and put away the CP3-less Clips. Curry has been more aggressive since Christmas, and that has translated into DFS success:
This will likely be one of the last games you’ll get Curry at only $8,600 DK.
The Pelicans have been a bottom-10 team against opposing DFS PGs this season . . .
. . . and they get John Wall today, who has averaged a +3.96 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He leads all non-Thunder PGs with a +2.36 FD Opponent Plus/Minus and could actually see his ownership dip today after Curry’s explosion last night: Wall is $1,200 more expensive than Steph on both sites.
On the other side of that game, Jrue Holiday has averaged an FD Plus/Minus of +5.57 over his last 10 games and just dropped 47.3 FD points against a tough Spurs defense on Friday. There are really no value options in the 6pm main slate which means you’ll either have to pay up for both Steph and Wall (or pivot to Kyle Lowry) or settle for Jrue at a lower price point of $7,600. Considering Jrue’s recent play and Washington’s average 105.4 Defensive Rating on the year, it’s not an awful idea.
Shooting Guards
In a vacuum, shooting guard is relatively easy today: Play James Harden, who just dropped 97.75 DK points thanks to 51 real points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists against Joel Embiid and the 76ers. That said, we just discussed how hard it is to find value at the PG spot, which may necessitate hitting the mid-tier range at SG.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Bradley Beal and Dwyane Wade sit within $400 of each other on DK, where both have Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent. Wade has been the superior DFS asset of late, averaging a robust +6.55 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but he’ll also match up against Philly stud defensive wing Robert Covington, who ranks second among all SFs in the league with a +2.93 DRPM and will likely be looking for redemption after getting torched by Harden. Beal has the easier matchup against the Pelicans, who will start Buddy Hield at the off-ball spot.
Beal is a little bit cheaper, has a better matchup, and is projected for the same 17-20 percent ownership. You know what to do.
If you want a true punt play, you’ll have to dip into the Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Allen Crabbe range. Curry has the best combination of minutes and usage of those three, but he’s also at least $300 more expensive and faces Green and the Spurs, who rank third defensively this season, allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions. His price and minute safety are nice, but his -0.66 FD Opponent Plus/Minus isn’t. Green is a low-usage player — he’s using only 12.4 percent of the possessions while on the floor this year — but he’s been able to hit value thanks to defensive stats recently:
He doesn’t seem very safe, but 80 percent Consistency at $3,600 FD isn’t too shabby. Crabbe has the lowest ceiling of the three because he’s incredibly scoring-dependent, but he’s also projected for only two to four percent ownership. Actually, that’s probably fair.
Small Forwards
Paul George remains on an absolute tear, scoring at least 42 FD points in each of his last three games and increasing his usage rate significantly over that time:
He took 24 and 22 shots in the first two games of that stretch and went to the free throw line 17 times last game: He’s been incredibly aggressive on the offensive end recently. He leads all SFs today with 14 FD Pro Trends and has a nice matchup against a Houston team that ranks third in pace, averaging 108.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and 17th in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions. This game has the highest total of the day at 226 points, and the Rockets are only three-point favorites. PG is a big reason the Pacers are projected for 111.5 points — the third-highest mark in the slate.
Also, PG’s teammate in C.J. Miles has been drafting behind George’s newfound aggression:
Kawhi Leonard and Harrison Barnes play each other in what should be a low-paced game, and Jimmy Butler is coming off a miserable game in which he shot 1-of-13 against the Heat and scored only 10.25 DK points in 33.4 minutes. That said, both he and Kawhi possess Bargain Ratings of 97 and 98 percent on DK, and Butler has a ceiling of 40-plus minutes in this Chicago rotation. He gets a tough matchup against the 76ers, but he should avoid Covington, and Philly has essentially had the worst defense in the league minus Embiid, who has already been ruled out due to rest. Butler has poor matchup data, but it could be misleading.
Power Forwards
Although Jahlil Okafor is available to play (and was Friday in their last game), it was Nerlens Noel who was scheduled to start in Embiid’s absence. He’ll likely get the starting nod again, and he’s exceeded in that role twice already this year. Per our NBA News feed:
And don’t overlook Ersan Ilyasova, who has averaged 28 DK points and a +6.7 Plus/Minus without Embiid this year. His 13-16 percent projected ownership on FD (where he has an 81 percent Bargain Rating) is much lower than that of his teammate in Noel, who is listed at PF despite playing over 97 percent of his minutes at center this season.
Markieff Morris continues to crush:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games and averaged a ridiculous +9.82 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He remains below $7,000 on both sites and faces a Pelicans team that has allowed a +1.28 Plus/Minus to opposing PFs over the past year. Anthony Davis has been playing the center spot for them (despite also being listed as a PF), which helps Morris avoid a difficult one-on-one matchup.
Speaking of Davis: He will likely have low ownership today because of his recent injuries and the studs at the PG/SG spots. He bounced back nicely last game, scoring 42.4 FD points in 33.4 minutes against a brutal Spurs matchup. Today’s matchup against the Wizards is a much easier one: The Wiz have allowed a mediocre 105.4 points per 100 possessions on the season, and Marcin Gortat hasn’t been the same defender this year.
Brow certainly has the potential every slate to be the highest-scoring player.
Centers
The center spot is pretty brutal today: Mason Freaking Plumlee is the highest-priced center in the main slate at $7,000 FD. Myles Turner is right below him at $6,800, and he has a better matchup against a Houston team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the league. Turner has averaged a +4.17 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, and while he hasn’t really shown a high ceiling lately he does have minutes safety at a blah position.
The Toronto big men in Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira have the best FD Opponent Plus/Minus marks at +5.35 and +4.24 among players projected for at least 20 minutes. Their opponent, Orlando, has talented defensive big men in Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo, but that just hasn’t translated into actual on-court success this season: They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Val should get more minutes, but Nogueira has actually been the more consistent player lately.
Other than that, you can perhaps take a chance on Marcin Gortat, who had his best game in a while last outing, scoring 41.4 FD points in 28.7 minutes thanks to 15 real points and 12 rebounds. He gets a Pels team that ranks 29th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 47.6 percent of their available boards. Gortat is overpriced compared to his recent production, but he does have upside in this spot and is projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
