Friday brings a 10-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers
With Joel Embiid questionable for tonight’s game (Jahlil Okafor was just deemed available to play), the 76ers will dominate the daily fantasy NBA world for another night.
Using our NBA On/Off tool, let’s look at the data for both situations.
With Embiid out, Covington has led the team with 29.2 minutes per game, while Ersan Ilyasova has posted the highest Plus/Minus at +6.7. With Embiid on the court . . .
The biggest hit has been the two big men in Okafor and Nerlens Noel. Dario Saric scores an average of 3.2 fewer DK points in those contests, and Ilyasova is mostly unaffected: He actually plays a minute more and loses only 0.3 percent of his usage. He’s priced up to $6,000 FD, but he has a plus matchup against Ryan Anderson, who is not very good defensively:
If Embiid is in, it’s difficult to fade him even at $8,400 FD.
He’s hit salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games, averaging a +9.42 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame. Houston is average defensively, ranking 16th in efficiency, but the Rockets are the fourth-fastest team, averaging 101.5 possessions per 48 minutes. He’s a home dog, which is one of his 11 Pro Trends.
James Harden is the most expensive player among all positions in the slate at $12,600 DK and $12,000 FD. This is a very difficult situation to analyze, as the 76ers have been poor defensively without Embiid on the floor this season . . .
Seen the point diff tweet ab Embiid, but his impact defensively is amazing. Tied with Utah for 2nd-best def w/ him on, worst def w/ him off.
— Bryan Mears (@bryan_mears) January 25, 2017
. . . but he’ll face Covington, who ranks second among all SFs this season with a +2.93 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Our Trends tool suggests that negative matchups aren’t too disastrous for the high-priced crafty wing:
Harden’s correlations with his teammates have dipped over the course of the season and sit mostly neutral or perhaps slightly negative: He should not be a (big) reason why you either play or don’t play his teammates.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
The Rockets have been low-owned cash-game options as road favorites this season:
Outside of Harden, only Trevor Ariza is projected to be owned in more than nine percent of FD contests. Ryan Anderson has the best average Plus/Minus in these contests, and they both have the best matchups among the projected starters. Per our Matchups page:
Eric Gordon has just been downgraded to doubtful: Harden has posted an average of 62.1 DK points in three games sans Gordon, and Ryno has led the team with a +7.50 DK Plus/Minus.
Point Guards
John Wall and Isaiah Thomas are the two highest-priced PGs in the slate by quite a bit at $10,200 and $9,800 FD. Thomas has been perhaps the best PG DFS asset lately in the league . . .
. . . although Wall has the superior matchup today against Dennis Schroder, who ranks 81st out of 86 eligible PGs this season in DRPM. That stat is particularly impressive considering the Hawks as a whole rank fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing 103.0 points per 100 possessions. How bad does Schroder have to be to have such awful individual defensive metrics while playing on a great defensive team with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard? Wall is projected for a position-high 21-25 percent ownership on FD, where he comes with 12 Pro Trends.
Elfrid Payton is the other PG projected for high ownership today. He struggled in his last game, although it’s fairly easy to see why:
He has a much easier matchup today against Thomas, who ranks 86th out of 86 eligible PGs with a miserable -4.64 DRPM.
Despite Elf’s struggles in his last game, his other stats are encouraging: Without Evan Fournier (doubtful) and D.J. Augustin (questionable), he played a team-high 37.7 minutes and used 27.6 percent of the Magic’s possessions while on the floor. He posted a true-shooting percentage of only 29.6 percent, which seems impossible, but imagine what he can do in this plus matchup if he makes even a somewhat poor percentage of his shots. Given all of this factors, he’s a fine cash-game option at only $6,500 on FD, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
If you’re looking to pivot away from Elf or the higher-priced guys, consider Matthew Dellavedova and Goran Dragic. Delly has played at least 29 minutes in each of his last three outings and is projected to get the start again tonight versus the Raptors. His opponent, Kyle Lowry, rates as a solid defender — he owns a +1.04 DRPM on the season (sixth-best) — yet Toronto has given up solid production to fantasy PGs, as evidenced by Delly’s solid +1.63 Opponent Plus/Minus. Dragic has had to play huge minutes without Tyler Johnson backing him up, and Johnson will be out again tonight with a shoulder injury. He has a tough matchup against Chicago, but he’s played well in all matchups lately and should dominate possessions for the Heat.
Oh yeah, and Kyrie Irving has played over 40 minutes in his last three games and gets the Brooklyn Nets tonight, who rank first in pace, averaging 104.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions.
Shooting Guards
FanDuel has a “Switcheroo” slate tonight that has centers listed as shooting guards and vice versa, but for the purpose of this breakdown we’ll keep the positions straightfoward.
Of the SG options priced above $4,500 FD today, no one really has an extremely positive matchup.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always a matchup enigma: Per Basketball Reference, he plays one percent at PG, 64 percent at SG, 34 percent at SF, and one percent at PF. Even that is misleading, however, as he isn’t considered the “PG” when someone like Delly is on the floor, but like LeBron James he operates the offense. He’s the true NBA unicorn, and despite having a poor -1.55 Opponent Plus/Minus, he’s really played well against the Raptors in their first two meetings this season:
The Miami SG duo — the Bad Boys, if you will — of Dion Waiters and Wayne Ellington . . .
. . . remain in play due to their low FD price tags of $6,200 and $4,000. Waiters has posted 40-plus FD points in each of his last three games, averaging 19 field-goal attempts per contest during that time. He’s scored 24, 33, and 33 real points, and he’s done it against at least two solid matchups in Golden State and Milwaukee. Ellington is certainly the less sexy option of the two, but he’s scored between 22 and 29 FD points in his last three games, in each of which he has played 32-plus minutes off the bench. Chicago does not have a particularly imposing bench unit — honestly, every player in Chicago hates each other right now — and Ellington needs only 15.42 FD points to hit value.
Ah, the fun of NBA DFS: While I was writing that last paragraph, DeMar DeRozan was ruled out. Let’s use our On/Off tool to look at the implications:
Norman Powell has played an average of 36.1 minutes per game without DD, averaging 30.9 DK points and a huge +15.7 Plus/Minus. If you’re worried about a matchup versus Giannis and the Bucks, don’t be: NormPo dropped 32.8 and 30.0 DK points in those contests versus the Grizzlies and Spurs. At just $4,600 DK and $4,200 FD, he should be one of the easier cash-game options in the slate. And don’t sleep on Kyle Lowry in tournaments: He’s played an average of 40.8 minutes without DD and becomes essentially Toronto’s entire offense.
Small Forwards
LeBron James is the most expensive SF in the slate by $1,000, and he gets the best matchup in the NBA against the Nets, who rank first in pace and third-worst in defensive efficiency. That said, although the Cavs are currently implied to score a slate-high 121.5 points, they’re also massive 15.5-point favorites, so there’s a risk of a blowout. However, in 13 games as a double-digit favorite this year, LeBron has averaged 55.79 DK points and an +8.95 Plus/Minus.
He’s been favored by a 15 points or more only twice this year: He scored 56.25 DK points against the Lakers and only 39.75 points against these very Nets. He’ll likely play hard because the Cavs have lost six of their last eight games, but he could also be pulled early.
C.J. Miles and Paul George are projected to start at the SG/SF spots for the Pacers, and they’re currently 4.5-point home favorites implied for 107.5 points against the Kings. Sacramento remains poor defensively this year, allowing 108.6 points per 100 possessions — the fourth-worst mark in the league. Miles and PG have played solid ball lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in their last two games. PG in particular has put up back-to-back FD outings of 43.3 and 42.9 points. He’s used a heavy percentage of the Pacers’ possessions lately — he’s attempted a combined 46 field-goal attempts in the last two — and he has a nice matchup against Arron Afflalo, who ranks 85th out of 98 eligible SGs this year with a -2.10 DRPM. He’s listed as four inches shorter than PG.
Jae Crowder remains a solid cash-game option: He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of his last four games and has averaged a +4.78 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10.
He dropped 42.0 FD points against the Rockets on Wednesday on a whopping 18 field-goal attempts and needs just 23.76 FD points to hit value tonight. One more cool thing to keep in mind: He and Al Horford have one of the highest DFS correlations (0.61) in the NBA. Horford had 46.1 FD points Wednesday.
The Raptors guys will be popular with DeRozan out. (Look at the on/off picture in the SG section for more information on Terrence Ross and DeMarre Carroll.) Instead of talking about them, let’s pivot to Kawhi Leonard, who is questionable with a hand injury but practiced yesterday. He had been crushing value of late before that injury . . .
. . . and could potentially be low-owned today because of his injury and his price point: He’s the same price as Jimmy Butler, who gets a depleted Miami team, and Kawhi’s only $1,000 less than LeBron, who is facing the worst team in basketball. Kawhi is arguably one of the best shooters in the league and is an elite pivot off of Butler and LBJ in tournaments.
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis left Wednesday’s game with an injury for the millionth game in a row:
He’s projected to play today, but he gets a Spurs squad that ranks 27th in pace, averaging 96.4 possessions per 48 minutes, and third defensively, allowing 101.7 points per 100 possessions. You probably should not roster him today, but isn’t that exactly why you should roster him? #GameTheory
Serge Ibaka has really bounced back as a shooter this season:
The Magic are currently eight-point road dogs implied for 103.75 points against the Celtics, but Ibaka has actually been his best in those situations this year.
He put up 34.6 FD points in 35.4 minutes last game against the Bulls, and he could certainly have a nice night again tonight against a Boston team that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions. Ibaka is currently tied for the most Pro Trends at his position with 10.
Markieff Morris has been the chalk lock for a while now:
He’s a big reason why the Wizards have been one of the best teams in the East since Christmas, although he’ll have a tough test tonight: The Wiz are currently 3.5-point dogs on the road in Atlanta, who rank fifth defensively this year, allowing 103.0 points per 100 possessions. Still, he needs only 28.15 FD points to hit value, and he’s been significantly above that mark over his past six games.
If you’re looking for a contrarian play, consider Jabari Parker, who seemingly flies under the radar in every slate. He’s currently a top-five option in the DK Phan Model, yet he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership. He put up 56.0 DK points just two games ago against the Rockets, and he has a winnable matchup tonight against the Raptors, who have allowed a pedestrian 106.0 points per 100 possessions on the season. He’ll match up against Patrick Patterson, who entered the starting lineup on Wednesday but still played just 26 minutes and has been dealing with a sore left knee. Parker certainly has the size to win this battle.
Centers
DeMarcus Cousins is the most expensive center option in the slate by $2,000 FD, but it’s hard to think he’s not worth that $10,700 price tag. Even though the Pacers have been the stingiest team versus opposing centers in January . . .
. . . if we look at the types of centers that have played them, it’s obvious how you should feel about Boogie.
The Pacers have been a disaster rebounding the ball this season: They rank 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 47.9 percent of the available boards. Boogie faced them last week and had 25 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists — a 53.4-point FD outing despite nine turnovers. He’s currently the No. 1 overall player in both the DK and FD Phan Models.
Hassan Whiteside has been ruled out, which opens up Willie Reed as a cheap punt play if you don’t want to pay up for Boogie. In four games without Whiteside this season, Reed has averaged 26.3 minutes, 31.1 DK points, and a huge +13.9 Plus/Minus.
He has a high +2.76 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bulls, who are a bit risky as a matchup given that they rank second in rebound rate, but don’t overthink this: Reed shouldn’t have a ton of foul trouble against Robin Lopez or Taj Gibson, and he’s only $3,900 on FD. Also, look at James Johnson, who has averaged 35.2 DK points and a +9.7 Plus/Minus without Whiteside. He’ll actually be the backup center to Reed.
If you want a potentially contrarian GPP play, consider Marc Gasol, who could be contrarian only because of Cousins/Embiid/Reed, and certainly not because of his recent play:
He dropped 61.25 DK points in 38.4 minutes on Wednesday against the Raptors and now gets one of the best matchups of the night against Portland, who owns the fourth-worst defense this year, allowing 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Gasol has a +3.79 Opponent Plus/Minus and 11 Pro Trends and could have a big game against Mason Plumlee, who ranks 48th out of 70 eligible centers and third out of three Plumlees in DRPM at +0.72. Gasol is currently projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
