Every team in play tonight is currently implied to score between 100 and 109 points. The spread for each game is no greater than five points. That’s how we roll on this six-game slate that tips off at 7pm ET.
San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors
Vegas: 206 over/under, Spurs -3.5
Kawhi Leonard will likely suit up after resting on Monday, and it’s anybody’s guess who coach Gregg Popovich will rest tonight. Leonard will be a safe option at small forward if he plays, and his value will amplify if LaMarcus Aldridge is given the night off.
The final status of Manu Ginobili could alter the values of Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills, both of whom remain less than $4,000 on FanDuel. On the other hand, DraftKings has been swifter to raise the salaries of Murray and Mills, nearly pricing them out of punt play range. Tony Parker will remain sidelined, and that will allow Murray to start. He had two stellar performances followed by one meager game in less than 22 minutes. The Raptors have been a team to target with point guards this season, yet the 7.6 percent GPP ownership on FanDuel notes that the public has been late to this notion. Murray is a shooting guard on FD, which elevates his stock if Ginobili is unable to play. Mills is very much in the same boat.
David Lee will remain a key cog in the rotation whether he starts or comes off the bench. He’s provided at least 27 FD points in three straight games without Pau Gasol available. I hesitate to use the word “safe” with Lee in case Popovich gives him the night off, but the game kicks off the six-game main slate, so we’ll know early enough if Lee is in or out. If he’s in, consider him a solid value play at power forward.
Patrick Patterson is close to returning, and DeMar DeRozan will not play tonight. DeRozan’s absence will likely shift Norman Powell or Terrence Ross into the starting lineup, and it will force Kyle Lowry to harbor most of the offensive responsibilities. Lowry recorded a season-low 12.8 FD points against the Spurs earlier this month, and without DeRozan, Leonard will be allowed to roam on defense and Danny Green could spend most of the night on Lowry.
Lowry’s recent struggles may be attributed to his excessive playing time this season, and he’s averaged only 36.59 FanDuel points over the past eight games. That said, his recent slump is accompanied by a salary decrease, and when DeRozan is off the court, Lowry averages 43.5 FD points per 36 minutes — roughly nine points more than his salary-implied point total tonight. He’ll certainly be one of the favorite options at point guard, but the warning signs are present.
Other beneficiaries include Powell and Ross, both of whom will see an uptick in minutes (especially Powell). When projected to play at least 25 minutes this season, Powell has averaged 21.33 DK points, but his inconsistency will limit his appeal to more of a punt play than a value play. If Green ultimately ends up guarding Lowry, Powell will likely be shadowed by Murray and Mills.
Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas: 204.5 over/under, Clippers -4.5
Blake Griffin is expected to return to the lineup, and if he does, Raymond Felton will likely come off the bench and Luc Mbah a Moute will shift down to small forward. Griffin could have his minutes monitored, but his presence will change the complexion of the Clippers offense.
One thing to keep an eye on is Austin Rivers‘ health. He briefly left Monday’s contest due to a leg injury, but he returned and finished with 41.5 DK points in 41 minutes. Coach Doc Rivers appears to be keeping Felton’s playing time down while running Rivers ragged. Due to the disparity in salaries, targeting Clippers on FD makes the most sense, as five of them offer a Bargain Rating of at least 86 percent.
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, which means Jahlil Okafor, who was downgraded from probable to questionable, will likely start if cleared to play. Okafor complained about right knee soreness during Saturday’s game, and that’s disconcerting considering he’s played four times in January. If Okafor doesn’t play, Richaun Holmes may get the start, as Brett Brown seems married to Nerlens Noel in the second unit. It will also allow for additional minutes out of Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric at center.
In the 12 games Embiid has sat this season, Noel leads the team in usage rate differential and Okafor has recorded the best DraftKings Plus/Minus differential on the team. However, the most consistent Sixer in Embiid’s absence has been Ilyasova, who’s averaged 82 percent Consistency on FanDuel in a Sixers uniform this season.
Okafor’s price point on FanDuel necessitates him to score at least 18.06 FD points. He’s averaged 15.4 actual points when Embiid hasn’t played. He’ll be the solid value center if he can give it a go.
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
Vegas: 216.5 over/under, Celtics -1
The first time these teams played, John Wall was ejected after being assessed a Flagrant 2 foul. After the second game, Wall and Jae Crowder were fined for their actions and police were stationed outside both locker rooms in case an intervention was necessary. Five total technical fouls were called in the January 11th game.
The Wizards are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and the Celtics have had two days between games. This certainly has the makings of a trap game, and despite leading all six games in Vegas total, the opening line has been bet down 3.5 points already. Is today the day Bradley Beal gets diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right leg after tallying over 30 minutes in four straight games? It’s unclear, but he nearly missed last night’s game because of a sore left knee — an inauspicious sign.
Isaiah Thomas has become extremely difficult to fade, especially with Avery Bradley out of the lineup. He’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations just once over the past 10 games, and when Bradley doesn’t play, Thomas has averaged 49.3 DraftKings points in 38 minutes per game. He ranks fifth in usage rate (35 percent) and second in field-goal attempts (22.6) in the month of January, and his Consistency and Upside are on par with John Wall’s over the past month.
Al Horford has been the real deal since the turn of the new year:
His playing time and production have been steady — a solid combination for cash games. In the previous meeting with the Wizards, he recorded 39.75 DK points in a game in which the Celtics were limited to nine healthy players, yet Horford continued to play in excess of 32 minutes a night. He and Crowder possess a high correlation factor (0.60), so if you’re going to side with Horford, adding Crowder to the same lineup makes some sense.
Gerald Green didn’t accompany the team to Washington, and over the past four games, Terry Rozier has played between 22 and 25 minutes per game. He’s projected to play 24.0 minutes tonight, and minimum-salaried players projected within a range of 22-26 minutes have historically produced a +2.60 DK Plus/Minus on 56.5 percent Consistency. It’s not earth-shattering production, but at $3,000 on DK and buffered by the absence of Bradley and Green, Rozier should receive plenty of minutes in what is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the evening.
Markieff Morris has been consistent and solid over the past 10 games:
Conversely, Marcin Gortat has played less than 30 minutes in three straight games and five of the past six. Both Morris and Gortat are negatively correlated, so you can imagine the lack of production from Gortat over the past 10. When considered an underdog by Vegas, Morris ranks third among all players in average Plus/Minus (minimum 10 games and projected for 18 minutes), and he ranks second among projected starting power forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus.
As Gortat’s minutes have decreased, Jason Smith’s playing time has risen. Over the past 10 games, Smith has recorded a +3.78 DK Plus/Minus at the minimum salary, where he’s priced again tonight. When the Wizards played the Celtics on January 11th, Smith recorded 20.25 DK points. It’s not an amazing ceiling, but he offers dual-position eligibility and solid recent form as Gortat begins to sink into obscurity.
Wall is the most expensive option on FD at $10,700. That’s almost in the no-fly zone. However, he offers a solid pivot off Thomas at $100 more on DK. He’s back home, which has resulted in 70 percent DK Consistency this season, but the condensed schedule lowers his floor slightly.
Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic
Vegas: 206 over/under, Bulls -2.5
The shooting guard spot is relatively thin, and this game may offer the most value at that position.
The current plan is for Dwyane Wade to play tonight and tomorrow. He’ll be joined by Jerian Grant in the starting lineup, but it’s unclear if Michael Carter-Williams will slide into the second unit to help control Wade’s minutes for the upcoming two games or if Carter-Williams will fall behind Rajon Rondo in the rotation. The Magic are expected to be thin at shooting guard, and with Aaron Gordon likely to match up against Jimmy Butler, Wade should draw the biggest benefit. Even in the games Wade has missed this season, Grant has averaged 20.4 minutes per game, which is three minutes less than Carter-Williams’ average in his starts. The offense will continue to revolve around Wade and Butler, and Wade offers more security in cash games while Butler draws interest in GPPs due to the volatile nature of his recent production.
The Magic will be without Jodie Meeks and C.J. Wilcox. Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin may not play, leaving Elfrid Payton, C.J. Watson, and Anthony Brown as the lone available guards. Therein lies the value. Payton and Mario Hezonja played all the point guard minutes in the last game after Augustin checked out with a sprained ankle, and if Augustin is unable to play, Payton will be asked to play significant minutes. He’ll rate as a solid PG2 behind any of the higher-priced studs, and he presently leads all players in the DK Models in Projected Plus/Minus. Watson is a cheap option at the two-guard position, and in two starts, he’s posted a +10.95 DK Plus/Minus while averaging 33.5 minutes per game.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
Vegas: 211 over/under, Nuggets -2.5
The Jazz are playing for the fourth time in five days. As a general rule, I tend to avoid such circumstances. When the Jazz played the Nuggets for the first time this season on November 20th, they were playing their third game in four nights and the second day of a back-to-back set. The Nuggets came away with a 105-91 victory in Denver against a team without George Hill and Derrick Favors.
Gordon Hayward has been the only Jazz player to exceed salary-based expectations in three games against the Nuggets this season. However, Hill didn’t play in two of those games and Favors was absent from all three. Hayward’s recent production has plateaued, and he’ll likely be overshadowed by Joe Ingles, who costs $3,200 less than Hayward on FD. Ingles has taken over at starting shooting guard with Rodney Hood unavailable, and over the past four games, he’s averaged 22.18 FD points. He lost a ton of playing time to Alec Burks last night, who costs the minimum on DK and has recorded 20-plus DK points in consecutive games.
Hill possesses the best matchup for point guards this season, and at 77 percent Consistency and 10 percent Upside on FD, he’ll warrant moderate exposure in GPPs.
Emmanuel Mudiay’s availability will directly impact the value of Jameer Nelson and Jamal Murray, both of whom split point guard minutes without Mudiay during Sunday’s loss. If Mudiay plays, he’ll face a Jazz team that has been plenty kind to opposing point guards this month.
Mudiay’s home track record and positive correlation with all the starters gives him a slight bump in GPPs as a contrarian play. However, he reinjured his back two games after appearing on the injury report as probable, so he may be limited, which really hinders the value for all three point guards. That said, he’s been labeled as “very doubtful” by coach Michael Malone, which shifts the focus to Nelson and Murray. Both may go overlooked due to the matchup, but as the trend above notes, January has been a kind month to opposing point guards. Nelson’s bust potential won’t fly in cash games, but as a value play in GPPs, he’s priced cheap enough to warrant a dart.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 214.5 over/under, Suns -1
When Karl-Anthony Towns costs $10,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, it may be best to deviate despite the “Towns as a road underdog” trend that has provided solid returns recently. He and Nikola Jokic are the only centers on the slate to offer 100 percent Consistency over the past month, and despite averaging a slate-best 50.4 DK points per game over the past 15 games, his salary dictates that he produce 50.15 DK points in order to break even. The margin for error appears small.
In four of his past six games, Andrew Wiggins exceeded 30.0 FanDuel points. In the other two cases, he was stymied by Kawhi and Andre Roberson. Zach LaVine has struggled to find his footing in the offense since returning from a hip injury, allowing Wiggins to command a larger portion of the offense. Small forwards have been one of the best plays against the Suns this season, averaging a +3.48 FD Plus/Minus (minimum 18 minutes projected). Wiggins has the playing time on his side — he’s projected for 38 minutes tonight after playing at least 38 in three straight games — and he’s slightly cheaper than Hayward on both platforms.
Gorgui Dieng has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight road games, and over the past two seasons, he’s provided a +5.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus on the road on 69.4 percent Consistency. I don’t know why he’s performed better on the road, but with a 62-game sample, Dieng offers a pivot at power forward where David Lee will likely be the popular choice.
The Suns have become a three-person squad with Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, and Tyson Chandler.
Bledsoe has been priced up to a season-high of $9,300 on FD and $8,900 on DK. He’s certainly on the GPP radar, but point guards have struggled to provide value against the Timberwolves since the beginning of December. They’ve collectively averaged a +1.55 DK Plus/Minus over the last seven weeks, and the last time Bledsoe faced the Timberwolves, he provided 40.75 DK points, a smidge below today’s salary-implied total of 42.15.
Booker’s stretch of hot shooting has died down, but his playing time remains steady at around 37 minutes per game. That’s a solid baseline at his position, and his ability to catch fire should elevate his stock in GPPs.
Chandler has been on a rebounding binge, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in his last 10 games. He offers an alternative to Horford on DK at $1,100 less, and his 69 percent Upside over the past month ranks second at his position to Jokic’s. If you’re looking for a similar ceiling to that of Horford at a reduced salary, Chandler fits the bill.
News Updates
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