What You Need To Know
The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course South for three of the four rounds this week, including both rounds after the cut. Golfers will also play one round at Torrey Pines North, which has experienced a $12 million redesign since the course was last played; it’s a complete wildcard for the players this week. Even with the remodel, the North is still expected to be the easier of the two courses by far, so golfers will need to crush their single round there to set themselves up for weekend success.
As for the South course, it’s an extremely difficult test (especially when the wind whips) that played at almost five strikes over par in the final round last year. Because the fairways are incredibly tough to hit on the South course, it tends to be a bomber’s paradise. Per our free Trends tool, golfers with a Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) of 300 yards or better have traditionally had a distinct advantage over their shorter-hitting counterparts here at Torrey Pines:
The Three Big Guns and Tiger
The World’s No. 1
Jason Day leads the field with a 67.3 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) and a -6.0 Average Adjusted Par 5 Strokes Per Tournament mark. Day also ranks third in Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) at 16.0, fifth in Adjusted Putts Per Round (Adj PPR) at 28.4, and 14th in LT DD at 306.6 yards.
Day — and, more specifically, his gimpy back — looked fine in Maui with a T12 finish in the SBS Tournament of Champions. Day’s 68.9 Course Adjusted Round Score ranks fourth here at Torrey Pines among golfers with more than one start: He won in 2015, was runner up in 2014, and finished T9 in 2013. Day did miss the cut here (reportedly with flu-like symptoms) last season and accumulated only 26.5 DraftKings points.
Your United States Open Champion
Dustin Johnson has the driving distance we’re looking for: His 314.8 LT DD is fourth overall in the field. Johnson has the second-best Adj Rd Score (67.9), Adj PPR (28.3), and Adj Bird Avg (16.6) in the field.
DJ has looked great in both of his starts in 2017: He finished sixth at the Tournament of Champions and was the runner up in Abu Dhabi. He finished third here in 2011, but his best finish since then was an 18th-place finish last year. His less-than-amazing track record at the course (despite his fit) and potential jet lag could repress his ownership this week, making him an enticing play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). That said, our current FantasyLabs projected ownership of DJ sits at a chalky 21-25 percent in large-field tournaments.
Matsuymania
Hideki Matsuyama finished 27th at the Sony Open after an epic run of either winning or finishing in second place for six straight tournaments. Both his 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score and his 16.0 Adj Bird Avg rank third in the field.
Hideki has missed the cut in his last two appearances at this track in 2016 and 2015. According to our Trends tool, since 2014 Matsuyama has yielded a disturbing -13.95 Plus/Minus at Torrey Pines. He accumulated less than 35 DK points in two of his three tournaments.
The Big Cat is Back
You might have heard that Tiger Woods will be making his return to the course after a 17-month absence from the PGA Tour. He last played in the 2015 Wyndham Championship.
Tiger has won here eight times, including the 1996 U.S. Amateur and the 2008 U.S. Open. In 16 starts at Torrey Pines, he has 12 top-five finishes. He hasn’t played a PGA Tour event in 522 days, but he did drop 24 birdies at the Hero World Championship in December. It would be almost too unbelievable for even Hollywood to write a script in which Woods wins here, but I do expect him to compete. Either way, the Big Cat is back.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Justin Rose ($10,200): With all the big names in the field, Rose may not find his way into a lot of lineups this week, making him a great play for GPPs. Our FantasyLabs projected ownership for him is currently 13-16 percent. Rose finished second at the Sony Open but has missed the cut here the past two seasons. His 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fourth, his 15.1 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for seventh, and his 303.7 LT DD is what we’re looking for at Torrey Pines.
Brooks Koepka ($9,900): Koepka’s 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth, his 15.1 LT Adj Bird Avg equals Rose’s, and his 304.4 LT DD is 22nd overall. He finished 41st here in 2015 and ended his 2016 campaign strong with a second-place finish and a win in Japan.
Brandt Snedeker ($9,500): Snedeker is not particularly long off the tee, but the two-time Torrey Pines winner and defending champion certainly knows how to get around this track. Snedeker has either won this tournament or finished second in four of his last seven starts. His 68.8 Course Adj Rd Score is the best mark among golfers who have made more than two starts here. Snedeker currently has FL projected ownership of nine to 12 percent in GPPs.
Jon Rahm ($9,200): Rahm’s 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth, his 70.4 LT Greens In Regulation (GIR) and 304.6 LT DD both rank 17th, and his chunky 17.4 LT Adj Bird Avg leads the field.
Gary Woodland ($8,600): Woodland has played well at Torrey Pines, notching 18th- and 10th-place finishes in 2016 and 2014. Woodland’s 305.5 LT DD ranks 16th and his 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 10th.
Brendan Steele ($8,000): Steele has started the year off in excellent form with back-to-back sixth-place finishes. He is averaging 101.5 DK points per tournament in 2017. Steele’s 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score is fourth-best among golfers with more than one start this year.
Tony Finau ($7,700): Finau crushes the ball off the tee: His 311.2 LT DD is eighth overall. Finau’s 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is 27th and he has two top-25 finishes in two attempts here at Torrey Pines.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500): Another fan of Torrey Pines, Vegas finished T3 in his 2011 debut and has added 18th- and 11th-place finishes the past two years. Vegas’ LT DD of 302.4 fits the mold and his 19th-ranked 70.3 percent LT GIR should help set up birdie opportunities this week.
Scott Stallings ($6,800): Stallings put up 99.0 DK points with an eighth-place finish at last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge. He has a win, a runner-up, and a 25th-place finish here in his last three trips. Per our Trends tool, Stallings has been an incredible value at Torrey Pines since 2014.
Brandon Hagy ($6,000): If you’re looking to go extreme stars-and-scrubs this week, you could do much worse than Hagy. His 319.1 LT DD is second in the field and he finished 43rd in his debut here last season. His 69.5 Course Adj Rd Score is seventh among golfers with more than two starts at Torrey Pines and we have him projected at only two to four percent ownership this week.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve tweaked. Charles Howell III ($7,300) is the adjusted model’s top-rated golfer — its Levitanimal, if you will. Howell’s impressive 69.0 Course Adj Rd Score is third among golfers who have made at least five starts here. He has top-15 finishes in his last five starts at Torrey Pines, including a fifth-place finish in 2015.
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Be sure to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
