Today is a split slate: The “Early” slate begins at noon ET and includes the first two games listed below, and the “Main” slate begins at 6pm ET and includes the final two games. Today revolves around football, but let’s talk some hoops.
Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic
Vegas: 223.5 over/under, Warriors -13
The Warriors have won six straight games, and their last three have been impressive victories over the Cavs, Thunder, and the Rockets. None of those games were particularly close, which is not a good sign for the Magic, who will bring their second-worst offense in the league, averaging only 101.2 points per 100 possessions, to try and keep up with the Warriors. It’s no surprise that the Warriors are such large favorites, and let’s review how each of their main guys do in similar situations. Per our Trends tool:
In double-digit spread games this year, the main Warriors have exceeded salary-based expectations. However, being double-digit favorites is the new baseline for Golden State. Let’s increase the filter in our trend to look at how they’ve done when the spread is 13-plus points.
The counts are still high, but Klay Thompson does slightly better and Draymond Green does slightly worse.
In their recent stretch of games, Klay has struggled to shoot the ball, going 20-of-48 over his last three and not exceeding 50 percent in any game. That said, the Magic have a bottom-10 defense this year, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions, and they are lacking depth with Evan Fournier and Jodie Meeks both out. They’re projected to start C.J. Watson, who played 30 minutes last game and owns a poor -2.68 Defensive Real Plus-Minus on the season. He’s at least five inches shorter than Klay, who should have a much easier time shooting the ball today.
Stephen Curry has been excellent of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of the Warriors’ last eight games and averaging a +5.23 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10. He’s posted at least six assists in each of his last seven games, and the Warriors are currently implied for a slate-high 118.25 points. Elfrid Payton is certainly the tougher matchup of the two starting Magic guards, and in his 17 games with a FD Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.36 (what it is today) or less, Steph has been underwhelming:
He’s a difficult fade in the two-game early slate, but there are certainly better values in the later games. Still, in the early slate he’s the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for DK, where his $8,700 salary comes with a +4.55 Projected Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends.
Draymond performs the worst of the main Warriors guys in large-spread games, but he also brings immense safety for cash games on a nightly basis. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 outings, averaging a +5.70 DK Plus/Minus over that time. He’s been at 39-plus DK points in five of his last six games, and his current $8,000 salary requires only 37.65 points to hit value. Kevin Durant is also incredibly safe: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10, averaging a +5.51 FD Plus/Minus over that time. Also, his 66-point projected FD ceiling is a whopping 18.3 points higher than that of any other SF today. He’s a difficult fade every day, but especially so in a short slate. He comes with a +5.10 Projected Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends.
The other SF in this game, Aaron Gordon, is currently the No. 1 SF in the FD Phan Model ahead of Durant, and his $5,200 salary comes with a position-high +5.11 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. This is a brutal matchup for all Magic players: The Warriors now boast the league’s best defense, allowing only 101.1 points per 100 possessions. That said, Gordon has averaged an incredible +8.68 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 and remains too cheap there.
Payton is too risky for cash games — he’s exceeded salary-based expectations only half the time over his last 10 — but he’s averaged a +7.78 FD Plus/Minus over that same time frame, which shows how high those ceiling games are. He dropped 57.3 points against the Utah Jazz last week, who also boast an elite defense and play at a slow pace. Payton will get the benefit of a fast pace today — the Warriors average 103.1 possessions per 48 minutes, which is second in the NBA — and could put up a nice game against Curry.
The other Magic players are worth GPP shots in this small slate. They all have volatile minute loads, but they’re also cheap: D.J. Augustin, for example, is projected to come off the bench, but he’s only $3,600 FD and played 28 minutes last game. Watson played 30 minutes last game, although he lacks a ceiling worth rostering even at $4,000: He scored only 14 FD points in 30 minutes last game and is averaging a miserable 0.52 FD points per minute over the last year. Nikola Vucevic, Serge Ibaka, and Bismack Biyombo continue to cannibalize each other’s DFS value, but they’re worthy darts given the small slate size.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 205.5 over/under, Mavericks -6
The Lakers play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, averaging 100.4 possessions per 48 minutes, and also own the worst defense, allowing a poor 110.1 points per 100 possessions. Against players projected for at least 15 DK points, they’ve been generous to all positions:
As such, the Mavs’ projected starters — Deron Williams, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and Dirk Nowitzki — remain viable in all contest formats.
Dirk is especially valuable today: He’s currently the No. 1 player among all positions in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $5,500 price tag comes with a +5.39 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He struggled last game, scoring only 15 FD points in 25.2 minutes against the Jazz, but he had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his prior five games and needs only 22.01 FD points to do so today. This is a massive pace-up game for the Mavericks, who are dead last in pace, averaging only 93.3 possessions per 48 minutes. These games have historically been valuable:
While pace-down games aren’t disastrously negative . . .
. . . it’s still a dangerous situation given the Lakers’ reliance on efficiency. None of these guys play heavy minute loads, which means a guy like Lou Williams, who has put up 37.3, 41.3, and 34.6 FD points in only 29.5, 31.0, and 26.6 minutes over his last three games, is riskier because of the fewer possessions.
That said, there are certainly fine plays here, including Lou. If Luol Deng is out again, feel free to fire up Brandon Ingram, who has crushed in Deng’s absence:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging an impressive +7.92 FD Plus/Minus over that time. Even with an awful -3.25 Opponent Plus/Minus, he’s worth rostering at only $4,400. Jordan Clarkson is the exact same price on FD, and he’s a similar play: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10, averaging a +5.50 Plus/Minus over that time. He has a brutal -2.31 Opponent Plus/Minus, but, like Lou and Ingram, it’s hard to argue with their efficiency lately. The matchup probably bumps most of these guys in a normal slate off of the cash-game line, but there are only four games today.
Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors
Vegas: 219 over/under, Raptors -11.5
The two night games are fairly juicy, beginning with a matchup between the third-fastest team in the league in the Suns and the second-best offense in the league in the Raptors.
The Suns remain awful defensively, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency and allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions on the season. They’ve been particularly bad against opposing PGs, and Kyle Lowry will be looking to bounce back after putting up only 30.7 FD points and getting blown out by the Hornets last game. That game dropped his salary to $8,600, which means he’ll be one of the chalkier options of the day against the Suns. He’s currently the No. 2 player overall in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a +6.58 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a +3.53 Opponent Plus/Minus.
The rest of the Raptors are certainly worth rostering in GPPs, although it’s difficult to project the rotation given the questionable statuses of Lucas Nogueira and Patrick Patterson. They both missed last game against the Hornets, although no Raptor really capitalized on the increased opportunity, as they got blown out 113-78. DeMar DeRozan will likely be chalky because of his high 56.7-point projected ceiling and matchup versus Devin Booker, who has posted a poor -1.17 DRPM this season. DeRozan scored only 25.6 FD points last game, but he’s still averaged a +5.35 Plus/Minus over his last 10 and comes with a nice +1.32 Opponent Plus/Minus today. DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas, and Terrence Ross profile less as GPP options because of their limited ceilings and efficiency numbers, but they’re worth rostering in this small slate given the elite matchup versus a fast-paced Suns squad.
Despite Lowry’s defensive prowess, the Raptors have actually been the second-worst team in the league against opposing PGs:
Eric Bledsoe owns a +1.00 Opponent Plus/Minus today and comes into the game red-hot:
At $8,300 FD, he’s an elite play in all contest formats and comes with 14 Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Tyson Chandler . . .
. . . and Devin Booker . . .
. . . have been right up there with Bledsoe in terms of elite play lately. Booker has a poor -2.14 Opponent Plus/Minus against DeRozan, but he’s also crushed lately against the Cavs, Jazz, Spurs, and Mavericks (his last four games). Chandler has regained his youth, rebounding the ball at an incredible rate: He’s grabbed at least 15 boards in each of his last six contests. The Raps are a bottom-10 rebounding team, grabbing 49.5 percent of the available boards this season. Chandler, Booker, and Bledsoe all have elite upside in this likely high-pace game.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 221 over/under, Wolves -4.5
The Raps are bad against PGs, but no one is near as bad as the Nuggets:
However, it’s tough to figure out what to do with Ricky Rubio out. Our NBA News feed could perhaps provide some instruction:
Our On/Off tool confirms that Tyus Jones has been a superior DFS asset in the fives games sans Rubio:
Both of these guys are worthy GPP options given the Nuggets’ awful PG defense, but be aware that the PG that starts won’t necessarily be the best play.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine have all crushed value in Rubio’s absence, which is encouraging to see because of KAT’s correlations this year. His highest correlation has been with Rubio . . .
. . . although that could be because of KAT’s extreme home/road splits (which Rubio shares):
He’s on the right side of them today, so load him up, even at $10,000 FD: He has a +4.54 Projected Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends.
With Emmanuel Mudiay ruled out, Jameer Nelson will become the chalky play at PG today. He’s projected for 34.0 minutes against a Timberwolves team that ranks 23rd defensively this year, allowing 107.3 points per 100 possessions. He’s the No. 2 PG (behind Lowry) in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $3,800 salary comes with a +6.96 Projected Plus/Minus and seven Pro Trends. He’s rightfully projected for 41-plus percent ownership, and that “plus” could get really high.
I mean, how do you fade Nikola Jokic?
He’s up to $10,200 on FD, but he remains only $9,100 on DK, where he comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Still, he’s worth rostering even on FanDuel: He has a salary implication of 42.64 points, and he’s been above 52 points in each of his last three contests.
Like the Mavs, most of the main Nuggets players are worth rostering: Will Barton, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, and Danilo Gallinari have all played excellent basketball lately and are projected for 25-plus minutes against a poor Wolves team. Barton in particular should be a popular option at SG: He’s put up 33.1 and 41.8 FD points in 35 minutes over his last two and comes with a robust +6.41 Projected Plus/Minus tonight given his still low $5,700 price tag. Unfortunately, like a lot of these guys, he’s also projected for high (41-plus percent) ownership in GPPs. Perhaps a game stack is in order?
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
