Saturday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks
This game has the highest Vegas total of the day at 220.5 points and features two teams that are top-12 in pace. Further, both the Phoenix and New York defenses have struggled this year, ranking 24th and 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.9 and 108.1 points per 100 possessions.
It wasn’t until Kristaps Porzingis returned and bumped Kyle O’Quinn out of the starting lineup that KOQ put up a big game, scoring 35.1 FanDuel points in 21.1 minutes. Still, he’s likely to see reserve minutes now, even if Porzingis is somewhat limited in minutes (29 last game). Carmelo Anthony had an excellent game last outing, putting up 50.0 FD points on 34 real points against the Wizards. He took a whopping 27 shots and is projected for a 29.06 usage rate tonight. Melo will match up with Marquese Chriss at the PF spot, and Chriss remains one of the worst defenders in the league at the position:
Melo has ‘only’ a +1.20 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, but that is certainly skewed by his current positional splits: He’s played 73 percent of his minutes at SF and 27 percent at PF. With Porzingis at center, he’ll certainly skew more toward the PF spot and should be able to take advantage of this matchup.
Derrick Rose has the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the team at +3.07, and he’s just two games removed from putting up 53.5 FD points in 32.8 minutes against the Boston Celtics. Rose has done slightly better in games without Porzingis this season: Per our On/Off tool, in seven non-Porzingis games Rose has averaged 2.9 more DraftKings points and a +1.3 Plus/Minus differential. That said, his usage rate essentially stays the same and he can certainly take advantage of this matchup. There are better cash-game options on the slate, but he does have a nice ceiling and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on FD.
One last guy I’ll mention for the Knicks is Mindaugas Kuzminskas, who is projected to remain in the starting lineup at the SF spot alongside Melo and Porzingis. He struggled last game, putting up only 9.2 FD points in 18 minutes after putting up back-to-back 26-point games, but we’re projecting him for close to 30 minutes tonight. At just $3,900 FD, that’s hard to pass up against a fast-paced team that defends the ball poorly. He’s currently the highest-rated Knick in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +3.42 Projected Plus/Minus and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
On the Phoenix side, Devin Booker remains on a heater:
Over his last nine games, he has exceeded salary-based expectations six times and averaged a robust +7.32 FD Plus/Minus. He’s done this against difficult matchups as well. Take a look at his game log:
That’s brutal, and still Booker has played well. He’s an excellent play today, especially on FD, where his $6,500 salary comes with a +2.90 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
His backcourt mate, Eric Bledsoe, has been equally hot:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging an incredible +9.13 FD Plus/Minus during that time. Given the value at PG today with the Clippers guys facing Denver, it’s understandable not to roster Bledsoe in cash games, but he’s certainly an elite play in guaranteed prize pools. He’s projected for 13-16 percent ownership with 11 FD Pro Trends.
The Knicks have been the second-worst team this year against opposing centers (per our Trends tool):
They’ve allowed an average of 31.63 DK points and a +4.93 Plus/Minus to centers projected for at least 15 points. Tyson Chandler matches for that trend, and like the other Suns starters he’s played well lately:
He’s grabbed at least 15 rebounds in each of his last six games and faces a Knicks team that ranks fourth-worst in defensive rebound rate, grabbing only 74.7 percent of the available boards.
Finally, P.J. Tucker profiles more as a cash-game play because of his limited ceiling, but he’s hit value in seven of his last nine games and remains only $4,000 on FD, where he has a +3.08 Projected Plus/Minus.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker just put up 46.8 FD points in only 28.8 minutes last night in a ridiculous blowout win over the Raptors. He now gets the Brooklyn Nets, who play at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and own the third-worst defense, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets are currently 12-point home favorites implied for a slate-high 115.25 points. There is certainly a blowout concern again, but Kemba showed that he can play well even in limited minutes, and the Nets are coming off an impressive blowout win of their own. Kemba has a high +3.55 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his reasonable $7,900 salary comes with a +4.76 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Raymond Felton is easily the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $4,600 salary comes with a ridiculous +9.24 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Without Chris Paul in the lineup . . .
. . . Felton has been DFS dynamite. In seven games without Paul this year, he’s averaged 34.2 minutes, 27.8 DK points, and a massive +10.7 Plus/Minus. He put up 30.8 FD points in 34.2 minutes last game against the Timberwolves. And we haven’t even discussed the best part about Felton today: His matchup versus Denver. Per our Trends tool, the Nuggets are easily the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs:
I believe Freedman has a GIF for that.
[Editor’s Note: Yes.]
Leverage Play
The pivot play off of Felton might be his teammate, Austin Rivers. He’s $800 more expensive than Felton and is projected to be owned in 13-16 percent of lineups, compared to 21-25 percent for Felton (and that could get higher). Per the previous On/Off image, Rivers has also been solid without Paul in the lineup: He’s averaged 23.6 DK points and a +2.60 Plus/Minus in 32.4 minutes per game. That may seem like underwhelming production on a per-minute basis (it is), but, again, this is a matchup versus Denver. The Clippers will likely play a lot of dual-guard lineups with some combination of Rivers, Felton, and Jamal Crawford. At 36.2 projected minutes tonight, Rivers is a decent bet to hit value.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Nicolas Batum missed value last night, scoring only 23.8 FD points in 31.1 minutes against the Raptors. That said, the Hornets demolished the Raps in this game, and Batum didn’t need to play well. That may be the case again today against the Nets, but it’s hard to ignore Batum’s elite matchup metrics, especially since high-priced studs James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo have tough matchups against the Grizzlies and Heat. Again, the Nets are the fastest team in the league and have been incredibly poor defensively, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions. Batum is projected to match up against Joe Harris, who is somehow still starting over the superior Caris Levert, although the latter has seen his role rightfully increase lately. Batum is a great value on FD, where his $7,400 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
More Clippers? More Clippers. Jamal Crawford is second on the team with an increase of 8.8 DK points and a +6.9 Plus/Minus differential in games without Paul this season. Interestingly, J.J. Redick has actually been worse without Paul in six games, scoring only 20.3 DK points and averaging a disappointing -3.30 Plus/Minus. It makes sense from a basketball standpoint: Redick is much more dependent on Paul to be involved in the offense, as evidenced by his -17.1 Net Rating differential this season without CP3. Redick has the superior FD Opponent Plus/Minus at +3.95, but Crawford is cheaper at $3,900. Both are highly rated in the FD Phan Model, and they come with Projected Plus/Minus values of +5.70 and +3.90.
Leverage Play
Dwyane Wade is on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s at home and he played only 20.1 minutes last night. He’s projected for a better 31.3 minutes and a high 29.53 usage rate tonight against the Kings, who have been awful defensively this year, allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions. Wade has missed salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, but he had scored 32-plus points in each of his prior four games. At $6,300 DK, he needs just 29.15 points to hit value. He’s currently the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model for DK, and he has a +2.55 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Given the likely chalky Clippers guards, other SGs should be under-owned: Wade is projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are going against each other, and we already discussed Melo, so let’s talk about Jimmy Butler. Like Wade, he played abbreviated minutes last night against the Hawks and played poorly, scoring only 21.5 FD points in 29.5 minutes. He and Wade both commented on their poor play after the game, and (#NarrativeStreet ALERT) they could come out with more energy tonight against the Kings. The Bulls are currently six-point home favorites implied for 105.5 points, and Butler put up 51.8 FD points in the game prior to last night’s dud. He’s overpriced on FD at $9,800, but he’s a much better value on DK, where he’s only $9,100 with dual SG/SF eligibility. He’s currently the No. 2 option in the Phan Model there, with 12 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
With Rodney Hood out for two weeks, Joe Ingles has stepped up admirably:
He’s played 37.8 and 33.7 minutes in the last two games and has scored 25.6 and 23.9 FD points — +10.18 and +10.23 Plus/Minus outings. He’s projected to play 30.6 minutes today at SG for the Jazz, and he gets an Indiana team that has been average defensively this year, allowing 105.6 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz are currently six-point favorites implied for 104.5 points, and this is a significant ‘pace-up game’: The Pacers average 6.7 more possessions per 48 minutes than the Jazz. Ingles is only $3,700 on FD, with a +3.69 Projected Plus/Minus and 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
The best FD Opponent Plus/Minus among SFs belongs to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who has an elite +4.87 mark against the Nets. He’s been a bit up-and-down lately, but he’s posted back-to-back games of at least 26 FD points and averaged a nice +5.52 Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s gotten at least 30 minutes in each of his last six games, and he’s currently projected for 32.9 minutes against Bojan Bogdanovic, who ranks 98th out of 98 eligible SGs with an embarrassing -3.42 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM). MKG is best when he’s rebounding the ball, and the Nets have been poor in that regard: They rank 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 47.9 percent of the available boards. He’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD.
Power Forward
Stud
The Philadelphia 76ers just continue to win, but that might be tough tonight without their stud big man, Joel Embiid. He will sit out tonight’s contest against the Hawks after having to go to the locker room multiple times last night with knee issues. The 76ers have allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions with Embiid off the court this year, compared to 101.4 with him on. That is an absolutely massive difference: They’re right at the Warriors’ top mark with Embiid. They’re easily the league’s worst defense without him. That bodes well for Paul Millsap, who has averaged a +4.78 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of those, and he’s certainly a fine play, especially on DK, where his $7,700 salary comes with 10 Pro Trend and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. The Hawks are currently 9.5-point favorites implied for 105.0 points over the 76ers.
Value
James Johnson missed value last game, scoring only 19.5 DK points in 32.4 minutes against the slow-paced Mavericks. That said, his minute load is the more important factor, and he’s received at least 30 minutes in each of his last three outings. He’s projected for 31.5 minutes tonight, and he has an elite +3.16 Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Bucks, who have allowed a below-average 105.8 points per 100 possessions on the year. He should come off the bench and match up with Jabari Parker, who has a poor -1.54 DRPM this year, ranking 92nd out of 93 eligible PFs. Johnson is currently a top-three option on both sites in the Phan Model, with Projected Plus/Minus values of +3.85 and +3.56 on DK and FD.
Leverage Play
Speaking of Jabari Parker: He’s a great value on DK, where his low $6,700 salary comes with a +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He owns an average -0.30 Opponent Plus/Minus, but that likely undersells his matchup against some combination of Johnson, Rodney McGruder, and Luke Babbitt. This game doesn’t have an exciting total at 206 points, but it is projected to be close: The Bucks are currently 1.5-point road favorites. Jabari is coming off a 41-point DK outing in 37.6 minutes against the Magic, and he played a large 37.6 minutes in that game. He’s projected for 34.4 minutes and a 24.32 usage rate tonight, and he needs only 31.15 DK points to hit value.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins struggled last night, scoring only 32.0 FD points in 28.5 minutes against an elite Grizzlies defense. He gets a much better matchup tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed a +2.42 Plus/Minus to opposing centers this year. Despite the poor performance last game, Boogie is still averaging a positive Plus/Minus over his last nine games, and he had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his four games prior to last night. As highlighted by Bill Monighetti in his DFS scouting report on Boogie, Cousins has actually not seen a big increase in value without Rudy Gay. Further, he’s been worse on the road than at home throughout his career. Still, he has the position’s highest-projected ceiling at 62.0 FD points, and he’s projected for only 13-16 percent ownership. There’s a clear value play at center, which means paying up for Boogie’s upside could be a profitable contrarian move in tournaments.
Value
Jahlil Okafor should get the start with Embiid out tonight, and per our On/Off tool he’s been a great value in games without Embiid (as has Ersan Ilyasova):
In 10 games without Embiid this year, Okafor has averaged 26.5 DK points and a +4.60 Plus/Minus in 26.2 minutes of play. He’s currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for FD, where his $4,600 salary comes with a high +5.44 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. At that salary, he needs only 18.06 points to hit value, and he’s been significantly above that without Embiid. He’s projected for 27.9 minutes and should be chalky despite a tough matchup against the Hawks, who rank fifth defensively on the year and have allowed only 102.6 points per 100 possessions.
Leverage Play
Marc Gasol has scored at least 42 DK points in each of his last three games, and he now gets a Houston team on the second leg of a brutal back-to-back against the Warriors and Grizzlies. Memphis opened as a 1.5-point dog but has since moved to a one-point favorite against Houston. Even after dominating lately, Gasol is still only $7,300 on DK, where he has a +1.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. This is a massive pace-up game for the Grizzlies — they average 6.0 fewer possessions than the Rockets — which means that Gasol should get plenty of opportunities to hit value in his 35.5 projected minutes. He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership and is an excellent GPP pivot down from Cousins or up from Okafor.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
