Friday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers
This slate is dominated by the Rockets-Warriors game (which was the “Game of the Day” in today’s Flex podcast), which has a ridiculous 236 Vegas over/under. That game will garner high ownership levels, but this Lakers-Pacers matchup is intriguing with a Vegas total of 220.5 and two poor defenses.
The Lakers defense is particularly bad: They rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing an embarrassing 110.5 points per 100 possessions. Against players projected for 15-plus DK points, the Lakers have been very generous to all positions. Per our Trends tool:
Paul George headlines this game, although, interestingly, his $7,400 FD price tag is lower than that of his teammate Jeff Teague‘s at $8,000. PG hasn’t really shown an elite-level ceiling in a while . . .
. . . but his low FD salary requires only 30.35 points for him to hit value. He’s been up-and-down lately, but he hasn’t been that down. He comes with a massive 15 Pro Trends today.
Speaking of Teague, he just dropped 47.9 FD points in 34 minutes against the Kings and has been throwing dimes lately: He has at least eight assists in each of his last 10 games. The Lakers play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, and Teague will face a starting unit that has allowed at least 65 percent shooting at the rim across all positions. For that reason, Myles Turner also has immense upside in this matchup:
He’s a better value on FD, where his reasonable $6,700 salary comes with a +3.42 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He leads all centers in the slate with a +6.42 Opponent Plus/Minus, yet he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Finally, it’s fine to have some exposure to Thaddeus Young and Glenn Robinson, the latter especially on DK, where he’s only $3,200 and has dual SG/SF eligibility. Monta Ellis played 28.9 minutes off the bench last game, and while he’s been awful lately, it’s hard to outright dismiss any player that could get 25 to 30 minutes against this Lakers squad.
On the Lakers’ side, it’s hard to get excited about any player given their volatile minute loads. Luol Deng is questionable for tonight’s contest, and if he’s out then Brandon Ingram will start again and remain the most intriguing Laker, although he’ll draw the hard PG matchup. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a robust +6.68 DK Plus/Minus over that time frame. The Pacers have been poor all year against centers, but Timofey Mozgov and Tarik Black are splitting minutes, and neither player comes with a high enough floor or ceiling to warrant rostering. D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle have the highest ceilings on the team, but they’ve really struggled lately — they put up only 14.0 and 25.8 DK points in about 25 minutes last game against the Nuggets — and haven’t consistently received 30-plus minutes. The Pacers have weaknesses, especially on the boards — they’ve grabbed only 47.9 percent of the available rebounds this year — but these guys are only GPP options because of their volatile minutes.
Point Guard
Stud
Although the Charlotte Hornets have been a little better against opposing PGs lately, they still are quite below-average in that regard:
Per our Trends tool, they’ve given up an average of 29.08 DK points and a +3.38 Plus/Minus to PGs projected for at least 15 points. Kyle Lowry gets them tonight, and if you want to stroll down #NarrativeStreet, it is his first game since being left out of the Eastern Conference All-Star Game starting lineup. Lowry has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine outings, averaging a nice +5.96 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He put up 43.6 points against them in their first meeting this year, and at only $8,800 he needs just 36.49 points to hit value. He’s currently a top-two option in the Phan Model for both sites.
Value
Per our NBA News feed:
Evan Fournier has officially been ruled out of Friday’s tilt vs. the Bucks. Jodie Meeks is expected to miss four to six weeks, and that means Mario Hezonja, D.J. Augustin, or C.J. Watson will be wedged into the starting lineup.
Right now our Matchups page has Augustin starting alongside Elfrid Payton, and he’s only $3,300 DK and $3,500 FD. He comes with high Projected Plus/Minus values of +5.95 and +4.97, respectively, and he should approach 30 minutes at a near-minimum price. That’s hard to pass up, even against a Bucks team that has been tough against opposing guards: Augustin comes with a -2.32 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. Despite that, Augustin is currently the No. 3 PG in the Phan Model for FD, where he’s projected for 13-16 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Most people will pay up for James Harden or Kevin Durant, which makes paying up for Lowry, Stephen Curry, or even Kemba Walker a nice contrarian move in tournaments. The Raptors have been surprisingly poor against opposing PGs this season, and Kemba had the best game against them earlier in the season, dropping 60 FD points at only 9.1 percent ownership. He could be even lower than that tonight, and he’s currently projected for 35.2 minutes and a 29.91 usage rate. Toronto has dropped off defensively this season, allowing 105.4 points per 100 possessions. This game has a moderately high Vegas total of 215.5 points and it’s projected to be very tight: The Hornets are only one-point favorites at home.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is definitely going to be the one of the highest-owned players in the slate: The Rockets are 5.5-point home dogs implied to score a whopping 117 points. Harden dropped 65.5 FD points against them in their first meeting this season, and that game went into overtime in Oracle Arena. Harden is such a massive part of the Rockets’ offense, as exemplified by his ridiculous 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 13 assists in that first victory over the Warriors. He has the second-highest projected ceiling among all players today at 72.4 FD points, and he’s an elite play in all contest settings, even at a high $12,200 price. He’s projected for 37.1 minutes and a 35.36 usage rate and comes with 12 Pro Trends.
Values
The best value SG might be Harden’s teammate in Eric Gordon, who got back up to 32.5 minutes last game and dropped 25 real points against the Bucks. The Warriors and Rockets play at two of the four fastest paces in the league, averaging 103.1 and 101.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and there should be plenty of action to go around. Gordon is currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for DK, where his low $5,600 salary comes with a position-high +5.55 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for high 17-20 percent ownership, but it’s certainly warranted in this juicy game.
Leverage Play
If you want to split the difference between Harden and Gordon, look to Nicolas Batum, who has absolutely crushed lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine and has hit 31-plus FD points in each of his last three since returning from a hyperextended knee issue. Batum has a tough -1.57 FD Opponent Plus/Minus against the Raptors, but a lot of that likely has to do with opposing SGs having to defend DeMar DeRozan, and it’s very possible that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could take that task for the Hornets. Batum is a rare playmaking SG, and he’ll definitely have opportunities to do so against a below-average Raptors defense. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes and is the No. 3 FD SG in the Phan Model.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is the clear stud here: He’s projected for 35.7 minutes and a 28.56 usage rate against a Rockets team that has moved all the way up to fourth in pace this season. The Warriors-Rockets game is the highest ever total in our Trends database:
The Warriors are currently 5.5-point road favorites implied for a slate-high 122.5 points. Durant put up 72.25 DK points in the first meeting between these two teams, and he just dropped 70.0 DK points in his last game against the Thunder on Wednesday. He has a 68.1-point projected DK ceiling tonight, and honestly, that might be a conservative estimate. He’s the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a position-high (despite a position-high $10,500 salary) +6.14 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Aaron Gordon has been excellent lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games and averaged a +7.99 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame. With both Fournier and Meeks ruled out for the Magic, it’s definitely possible that they elect to play Gordon more minutes at the SF spot instead of relying on Mario Hezonja, who has been incredibly disappointing in his short career. Gordon has been very up-and-down, but that’s certainly fine for tournaments, and especially at only $5,000 on FD. He leads all SFs with a high +4.02 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bucks. Gordon is currently the No. 3 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a +3.59 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Trevor Ariza has a tough one-on-one matchup against Durant, but it’s really hard to ignore his $5,500 salary in this high-total game. He’s historically been better in high-total games . . .
. . . which makes sense considering he’s so reliant on guys like Harden to set up his offense. He put up 39.6 FD points three games ago in a similarly-high total game against the Nets — although they’re also awful defensively, which the Warriors are not. He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership on FD, where he comes with nine Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s a worthy part of a game stack in tournaments.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has left games due to injury in approximately one million outings in a row, which takes him out of cash-game consideration, although he probably was never in the mix with other high-priced studs like Harden and Durant in this slate. That said, he’s an elite GPP option because of his likely low ownership, and he actually currently owns the highest-projected ceiling in the slate at 79.4 DK points. He has about as good of a matchup you can ask for against a Nets team that ranks first in pace, averaging 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and third-worst in defensive efficiency, allowing a miserable 109.4 points per 100 possessions. He’s currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for both DK and FD and comes with high Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.15 and +5.00.
Value
There are three PFs that are viable in cash games — Thaddeus Young, Taj Gibson, and Ersan Ilyasova — and Gibson might be the safest given his rebounding. He faces the Hawks, who have surprisingly been average rebounding the basketball despite having two big bodies in Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard: They’ve grabbed only 50.0 percent of the available boards. Gibson has played well lately, putting up back-to-back 30-plus FD point games against the Grizzlies and Pelicans, who both rank in the top-seven in defensive efficiency this season. Atlanta is also up there, but finding value at the PF spot is tough today, and Taj has shown a safe floor and nice upside in bad matchups. He’s projected for 29.6 minutes today and comes with only five to eight percent projected ownership on FD.
Leverage Play
Draymond Green has an incredibly safe floor, although it might be hard to roster him in cash games if you elect to go Harden or Durant. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a +5.80 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He flashed a nice ceiling two games ago against the Cavaliers, putting up 55.1 FD points thanks to a triple-double of 11 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists. He has that sort of upside again tonight against a fast-paced Houston team, and he’s reasonably priced at $7,900 DK and $8,200 FD. He’s currently a top-four option at the position in both Phan Models and comes with Projected Plus/Minus values of +3.25 and +4.34, as well as 12 and 11 Pro Trends.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is $8,400 on FD, and he’s still very underpriced. He’s easily the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for FD, where he comes with a position-high +5.36 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating. He also owns a massive +5.23 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Trail Blazers, who play at a top-10 pace, averaging 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes, and remain terribly defensively, allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions. Embiid has simply been amazing lately:
What else do you need? He should probably be one of the first players you put in your cash-game lineup.
Value
I really don’t think there’s a value center worth trusting in cash games, but I’ll throw one out there anyway. Montrezl Harrell could be sneaky in tournaments, as the Rockets are on the front leg of a back-to-back and could limit the minutes of Clint Capela and Nene. Harrell exploded for 37.0 DK points last game in 26.8 minutes against the Bucks, and while he has a brutal matchup against the Warriors, he’s worth low ownership at only $4,900 DK, especially since there are essentially no value centers worth rostering in a high percentage of lineups. If in doubt, stack the Warriors-Rockets game.
Leverage Play
Turner is an elite play against the Lakers, but we’ll talk about Rudy Gobert since we discussed Turner already. Gobert has absolutely dominated lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaging a +6.68 DK Plus/Minus over that time. He’s put up back-to-back games of 51.25 DK points against the Suns and the Magic in 36 minutes of play. He’s been rebounding at an incredible level — he’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in each of his last 15 games — and he faces a Mavericks team that ranks dead last in rebound rate, grabbing only 46.2 percent of the available boards. He’d be the cash-game lock if Embiid weren’t in this slate, which makes him an especially intriguing GPP pivot.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
