Thursday brings a five-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 220.5 over/under, Cavs -12.5
Over the last eight games, the Suns have ranked 29th in pace, averaging 94.63 possessions per 48 minutes, belying their season rank of third in pace. Five of those games were against the Jazz, Mavericks, and Heat, which helps explain the downshift in pace. When the Cavs and Suns played on January 8th, 96.86 possessions were used.
Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, and Tyson Chandler have all averaged a FanDuel Plus/Minus of at least +6.60 over the past eight games. The rest of the team has averaged less than 20.0 FD points, and Brandon Knight did not play in three of those games because of a wrist injury. Knight may sit out tonight after officially being listed as questionable, and in the games he’s missed, Bledsoe and Booker have each averaged at least 36.0 minutes per game, and Booker led the team with a +5.30 percent usage rate differential while Bledsoe contributed a team-best +10.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Here’s what coach Earl Watson had to say after Booker played 46 minutes in Monday’s regulation game:
“He’s a player who needs to play most of the game. He’s young. He can recover quickly and he’s playing great, so he needs to be on the court more.”
Booker has averaged 38.1 minutes per game over the last eight — the third-most minutes among all NBA players over that time frame. It’s fair to assume he’ll play close to his recent average, especially if Knight is ruled out. It will be difficult to fade Booker despite the large spread.
P.J. Tucker could see plenty of run in order to help contain the Cavs’ LeBron James, and in the last three games against the Cavs since last season, Tucker has averaged a +6.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 34 minutes per game. He’s ridiculously cheap on DraftKings ($3,800), and he qualifies at small forward and power forward.
T.J. Warren recorded 27.75 DK points against the Cavaliers less than two weeks ago, and small forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Cavaliers have averaged a +3.35 DK Plus/Minus — the third-highest average against any team this season. Both Tucker and Warren are cheap, but Warren is more expensive and he’s been less consistent on the road, like many of the Suns.
LeBron James has recorded his worst Plus/Minus over the past three seasons against the Suns (image below), and he’s averaged 36.7 minutes in those games. He’s been priced up to season-high salaries of $10,800 on DK and $10,500 on FD. Kyrie Irving exceeded salary-based expectation against the Suns on January 5th by 1.85 points, but his -9.66 DK Plus/Minus against them in the last five games is deplorable. That said, with Kevin Love‘s status in question, both are viable tournament targets due to the offensive load they will shoulder. In the four games Love has missed this season, Irving leads the team with a +17.20 FD Plus/Minus in 40.1 minutes.
James is implied to score 43.96 FD points, and in 13 games when the Cavs have been double-digit favorites and implied to score between 110 and 121 points, James has averaged 51.35 FD points on 76.9 percent Consistency. One instance when he failed to meet expectations was in a game against the Suns last January when the Cavs won by 22 points and James played only 31 minutes.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Vegas: 198 over/under, Heat -2.5
The Mavericks offer several solid cash-game options. All their starters play sufficient minutes, and their games are usually close enough to stabilize their playing time. Over the past 15 games, the Mavericks’ Net Rating is -1.0, which is indicative of close margins in the box score. The low implied total isn’t anything new for them, as they rank in the bottom two in pace. Dirk Nowitzki, despite being listed at power forward, starts at center and will benefit from one of the best matchups at his actual position. Among power forwards on FD, he offers the best Bargain Rating.
How’s this for a matchup:
In two of his three previous games against the Mavericks, Hassan Whiteside has exceeded 50 DK points twice. The Mavs are currently last in the league in rebound rate, and when Andrew Bogut is off the court, opponents shoot 48.5 percent from the field — that would be the worst mark in the NBA. Whiteside offers the highest upside at his position, and this is one matchup that could offer plenty of surplus value.
Let’s take a peek at James Johnson‘s recent marks:
That’s about the best you could hope for from a guy who’s shown drastic volatility in his production over previous seasons. He’s cemented himself as the sixth/seventh man off the bench along with Tyler Johnson, and he played more minutes than starter Luke Babbitt, who may have trouble containing the Mavs’ Harrison Barnes. James also acts as a pseudo-center, and since the Mavericks downsize with Nowitzki, Johnson has plenty of paths to minutes. He’s also cleared 27.5 DK points in eight straight games while recording 24 assists over the past three — the most on the team by at least seven over that span.
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks
Vegas: 219.5 over/under, Wizards -2.5
The Knicks are playing their fourth game in five nights, which is a situation I tend to avoid. However, Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah are unlikely to play, and with Lance Thomas unavailable, there are plenty of minutes to fill.
When a lineup clicks, coach Jeff Hornacek will run that five-man unit to the ground and squeeze as much juice as possible out of it. Occasionally, that means giving Marshall Plumlee a season-high 20 minutes, as he did last night. Hornacek doesn’t have a set rotation, and it’s difficult to rely on any of the big men in this spot. They are all sub-$5,000, but Willy Hernangomez costs near the minimum, and after his performance last night he’ll likely be the chalk option at center. He benefits from the Wizards’ bench Defensive Rating, which ranks 29th in the league and allows 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Kyle O’Quinn may remain in the starting lineup, and because of recency bias, he could go overlooked. That makes him attractive in tournaments.
Because the Wizards’ bench is inept, Brandon Jennings, Courtney Lee, and Justin Holiday deserve sparse consideration. Carmelo Anthony has struggled on the second night of back-to-back sets this season, averaging a -3.51 DK Plus/Minus in nine occasions. Alternatively, Derrick Rose has averaged a +7.19 DK Plus/Minus on the second leg of back-to-backs. Someone has to pick up the slack when Anthony doesn’t have it, and that man has been Rose this season.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas will likely remain in the starting lineup, and after his performance last night, he’ll be difficult to fade at $3,900 on FD. He’s posted 26.0 FD points in consecutive starts, and he’ll likely receive plenty of minutes with the Knicks thin on the wing.
Here’s the positional breakdown for the Knicks’ opponents this season (projected 18 minutes minimum):
John Wall is the most expensive point guard on both platforms, but on a night with cheap point guards, Wall is more of a luxury than a necessity. He’s also playing on the second night of a back-to-back set on the road, which hasn’t been a historically profitable spot. In 30 instances when he’s played a road game on the second night of a back-to-back since the 2014-15 season, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations 11 times while averaging a -2.27 DK Plus/Minus. In this season alone, he’s averaged a solid 44.83 DK points, but he’s missed his implied total all three times.
From my memory, Bradley Beal has consistently torched the Knicks. He’s the most expensive option at his position, and he also offers the sturdiest floor. Otto Porter is second in the NBA in 3-point percentage, and he is an outlier at his position, as he already posted 39.5 DK points against the Knicks on November 11th. He leads his position with a 28 percent Dud rate over the past month, but when he hits he can come close to 50 fantasy points.
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 218.5 over/under, Spurs -12
The Nuggets will be without Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur. Danilo Gallinari has been downgraded to questionable, and it appears the Spurs are going to throttle the Nuggets at home.
Nikola Jokic has been extremely successful against the Spurs, save for one game when he accrued three fouls in less than eight minutes. He’s also been priced up significantly on both sites, which constricts his viability in cash games. His ceiling is unrivaled at his listed position on FD, but it also comes with the worst Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential (paceD).
Will Barton started the last game without Harris, and he’ll likely start again tonight. Opposing shooting guards have been solid against the Spurs this season, and Barton has been terrific on the road, leading the Nuggets with a +7.26 FD Plus/Minus on 85.7 percent Consistency. If Gallinari is ruled out, Juancho Hernangomez will likely receive a boost in playing time, and he may start. Until Gallinari’s status is known, Hernangomez will remain an off-the-radar GPP flier. If Gallinari can’t play, Hernangomez will shift to a value play due to the available minutes on the wing. He started in one game Gallinari didn’t play this season and played 28 minutes.
The Spurs are presently double-digit favorites. What could go wrong?
They lost two of the last four such games and nearly blew another one after allowing 71 points in the first half to the Timberwolves. Below is how they stack up when Vegas projects them to win by at least 10 points. Kawhi Leonard outpaces his teammates in average production, situating him squarely in cash-game circles.
Tony Parker is cash viable because he gets the best matchup for a point guard, and when the Spurs faced the Nuggets on January 5th, he posted 38.25 DraftKings points in 24 minutes. Parker has also been more productive and extremely consistent at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas: 207.5 over/under, Timberwolves -1
The Karl-Anthony Towns decision tree did not prevail in the Timberwolves’ last road game, but his Consistency in road games remains at 47.4 percent on DK and 50 percent on FD. So when is the most opportune time to take advantage of Towns’ road woes? It appears he’s most serviceable when the Timberwolves are underdogs on the road, adding another appendage to the KAT decision tree — one that will hopefully become illustrated.
And gandering at the rest of the team when the Timberwolves are road underdogs (image below), a pattern emerges. It’s odd that they were considered favorites in nearly half of their road games, but since the beginning of December they’ve been favored in three road games and underdogs in the other seven. If we strip away the first 19 games of the season, the Timberwolves provide the highest Consistency (72 percent) on FD for road teams with players projected to play at least 22 minutes.
Small forwards facing the Clippers recently have still had plenty of success at low ownership:
Andrew Wiggins starts at small forward, and he stands to benefit the most from the Clippers shifting Luc Mbah a Moute to power forward. He was limited to eight shot attempts in his last game when Kawhi guarded him, but now that Austin Rivers is the projected matchup, it almost seems unfair. Wiggins has played at least 36 minutes in 12 straight games, and he’s vacillated between 16.5 and 48.75 DK points over that span. The swing in production and the sweet matchup provides a central Timberwolf to focus on in GPPs now that they’ve become favorites in this road matchup.
The Clippers won’t have Chris Paul and aren’t expected to have Blake Griffin. I’m not sure when Griffin will return, so prepare for anything tonight. Here are the results in the seven games Paul and Griffin have missed this season:
Jamal Crawford has been stuck in an awful slump, converting 27-of-103 shots over the past 10 games. His playing time is ostensibly solidified, but the potential for another Dud minimizes his utility to GPPs as a value bet. At $3,500 on FanDuel, I can see why his projected ownership is between 17 and 20 percent. Raymond Felton will likely take over at starting point guard, and he’s as chalk as they come at his position. Don’t overthink it. Austin Rivers is the most expensive option among the three guards, and if Crawford remains stuck in his rut, Rivers won’t hesitate to take those minutes and shots.
News Updates
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