The NFL Conference Championships Dashboard
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Conference Championships Quarterbacks
“End? No, the journey doesn’t end here.”
— Gandalf the White
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
The Big One
After averaging 341 yards and 3.5 touchdowns passing over the last month, only one player was a real option to be priced as the QB1 this week.
The Best QB in the NFL . . . is not an All-Pro QB
Even though Aaron Rodgers ($8,100 DK, $9,600 FD) didn’t start the season well, failing to hit the 300-yard mark in any game in Weeks 1-6, the slate’s most expensive passer is (naturally) the league’s QB1 in points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus (including postseason). Per our Trends tool:
The league leader with 40 TDs passing in the regular season, Rodgers was nearly unstoppable once running back Eddie Lacy went on the Injured Reserve in Week 7. The difference in Rodgers’ performance with and without Lacy is striking. Per RotoViz:
Without Lacy, Rodgers had more pass attempts, a much higher completion rate, far fewer interceptions, way more TDs, a significantly higher yards per attempt mark, and many more yards to close the season. RB Ty Montgomery is intriguing, but he’s not established in the sense that he doesn’t demand carries, and without an established RB on the roster Rodgers has been the Packers offense. It’s hard to say that the team needs a more balanced approach when it’s riding an eight-game winning streak and just scored 34 points on the road against the top-seeded Cowboys.
The Packers are currently five-point road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of 27.5 points. They’re facing the Falcons, the highest-scoring team in the league. While it’s seemingly not ideal that the Packers are road underdogs, if they trail they could have extremely pass-heavy game flow, which would likely benefit Rodgers, who attempted 43 passes last week as a road underdog in a high-scoring game. This week’s game has an incredible 60-point over/under and could result in similarly high pass attempts for A-Rod.
Additionally, it’s not a surprise that the Packers are the underdog. In a conference championship game, the road team is almost always the underdog. (I’ll have an article later in the week that talks more about the historical dynamics of conference championships.) And it’s probably not bad for Rodgers that in January he gets to play in a dome.
Also, Rodgers has already been a road underdog against the Falcons this season. In Week 8, the Packers traveled to Atlanta as three-point underdogs implied to score 24 points. They scored 32 points in a one-point loss as Rodgers completed 73.7 percent of his 38 pass attempts for 246 yards and four TDs passing. He also added 60 yards rushing and a two-point conversion. With his 33.8 fantasy points, he finished the week as the QB2 — and he did that without Montgomery, RB James Starks, and wide receiver Randall Cobb — so . . .
. . . it’s probably not a big deal that Rodgers isn’t favored in this game.
Throughout his career, Rodgers hasn’t been his best as a road underdog . . .
. . . but he’s still been pretty good.
This year the Falcons allowed the league’s sixth-most points (25.4 PPG) to opposing teams, and they also allowed QBs to score the second-most FanDuel points (19.9 PPG) and third-most DraftKings points (20.8 PPG).
Rodgers is disadvantaged in that (per our NFL News feed) his WR unit is significantly injured:
• Jordy Nelson (ribs) was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but he didn’t play last week, missed much of the week before that, and was described earlier this week by ESPN’s Rob Demovsky as being “a longshot to play.”
• Davante Adams (ankle) suffered an injury in the divisional playoffs and has been ruled out of practice for this week. He’s hoping to practice on Saturday, but Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel indicates that Adams’ injury is severe.
• Geronimo Allison (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday. He says that he was held out of practice “for precautionary reasons.” There’s not much fear right now that he’ll miss this weekend’s game — but it’s not good that he’s injured.
Since Nelson’s breakout campaign in 2011, Rodgers has been a diminished version of himself without his No. 1 WR . . .
. . . but even so he still has the position’s highest median projections, floor projections, and Projected Plus/Minus values. That’s decent for a guy who has ‘only’ the position’s second-highest FantasyLabs ownership projections and is just $400 more expensive than the QB2.
Rodgers is the highest-rated DK and FD QB in the CSURAM88 Player Model.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5,800 DK, $8,000 FD): Even though Antonio Brown has been a top-three WR over the last three years, Big Ben has been an amazingly mediocre road QB over that span — and “mediocre” might be generous:
Just last week, Roethlisberger was the worst QB in the divisional round, scoring only 8.1 fantasy points. Texans QB Brock Osweiler outscored him by 2.6 points — and Osweiler is barely a QB.
If not for the foot of kicker Chris Boswell, the feet of RB Le’Veon Bell, and the (lack of) arm of Chiefs QB Alex Smith, the Steelers wouldn’t even be in the AFC Conference Championship.
The Steelers are 5.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 22.5 points against the Patriots, who have held QBs to the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the league (17.1 DK and 16.4 FD PPG). It’s a pretty bad spot for Big Ben.
At the same time, the Patriots have played against perhaps the most uninspiring cohort of opposing QBs any team has faced this year:
• Carson Palmer (ARZ): Week 1
• Ryan Tannehill (MIA): Week 2
• Brock Osweiler (HOU): Week 3
• Tyrod Taylor (BUF): Week 4
• Cody Kessler (CLE): Week 5
• Andy Dalton (CIN): Week 6
• Landry Jones (PIT): Week 7
• Tyrod Taylor (BUF): Week 8
• Bye: Week 9
• Russell Wilson (SEA): Week 10
• Colin Kaepernick (SF): Week 11
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): Week 12
• Jared Goff (LAR): Week 13
• Joe Flacco (BLT): Week 14
• Trevor Siemian (DEN): Week 15
• Bryce Petty (NYJ): Week 16
• Matt Moore (MIA): Week 17
• Bye: Wild Card Weekend
• Brock Osweiler (HOU): Divisional Playoffs
Seriously . . .
. . . if I were trying to build an easier QB schedule for the Patriots defense, I don’t know if I could. That QBs haven’t scored a lot of points against the Patriots isn’t a surprise.
In fact, the Patriots defense is only 23rd against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — but it’s fourth in rush DVOA. Playing against an ‘actual QB’ — even one with negative home/road splits — New England’s funnel defense might be more likely to allow a big game by Big Ben then most people anticipate.
After all, the Pats did allow Jones to pass for 281 yards and a TD in Week 7 when he was the injury fill-in. Roethlisberger must be able to do better, right? Right???
The weather in Foxborough this weekend isn’t expected to be great, but the forecast right now calls for a temperature of ‘only’ 41 degrees Fahrenheit and winds of ‘just’ nine miles per hour. The weather won’t help Roethlisberger out, but if he sucks . . .
. . . the weather probably won’t be the reason.
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, we mentioned that Roethlisberger is probably as close as this slate gets to a contrarian QB — and he’s not an awful play on DK, where he has a position-high 98 percent Bargain Rating, is almost as cheap as he’s ever been, and owns the No. 1 rating in the Bales and Levitan Models — but expect nothing from him so you won’t be disappointed when that’s what you get: He’s an automatic fade in cash games.
Tom Brady ($7,100 DK, $8,300 FD): The Patriots are 5.5-point home favorites implied to score 28 points against the Steelers. In any other slate, those numbers would likely entice — but the PIT-NE game has an over/under that is 9.5 points less than that of GB-ATL. In a two-game slate, Brady might actually be one of the lesser QBs.
The Steelers don’t represent an easy matchup for Brady. Defensively they were 12th in pass DVOA this season and held QBs to the fifth-fewest FD points (15.4 PPG) and seventh-fewest DK points (16.4 PPG) in the league.
Additionally, while it’s hard to say that Brady is in a slump, the Patriots have undeniably shifted their offense toward the running game. Over the last four contests RB Dion Lewis has reemerged as an all-around presence, averaging 14.5 carries per game. Over that time, Brady has averaged just 241.3 yards and two TDs on 32.5 pass attempts per game. He hasn’t thrown more than 38 attempts in any of those four games. Compare that to his first nine games, in which he averaged 37.8 attempts for 319.5 yards and 2.4 TDs per game.
It really doesn’t help Brady that he’s without tight end Rob Gronkowski (back), who exited the team’s Week 12 game against the Jets in the first quarter and was placed on Injured Reserve in Week 13. Without Gronk, Brady was a borderline DFS option in the regular season . . .
. . . and since Gronk’s second-year breakout in 2011 Brady has been a lesser version of himself when Gronk has been absent:
On an almost identical number of pass attempts, Brady has fewer fantasy points, completions, yards, and TDs — and more INTs — without Gronk.
It might seem great for Brady that the Pats are home favorites, but throughout his career that has been a neutral-ish (slightly subpar) situation for him:
Also, when the Pats have been comparably favored at home in the past, the fantasy impact on Brady has been nonexistent:
Brady’s status as a home favorite seems to be irrelevant for his production: It’s a reason neither to play nor fade him.
It’s not as if Brady is a must-fade option this weekend. No QB has more Pro Trends. He’s the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. He has the position’s best combination of ceiling and ownership projections. He deserves exposure in guaranteed prize pools.
But he also trails the slate’s non-Roethlisberger QBs in median and floor projections. He’s not likely to destroy lineups in cash games, but he’s probably not the slate’s best option for that format.
If he weren’t Brady, would you be thinking about a guy without his No. 1 receiver against a position-negative opponent in a production-neutral situation when he’s recently been throwing the ball less?
The Coda
The likely 2016 NFL MVP, Matt Ryan ($7,700 DK, $9,200 FD) has been a revelation this season. From last year to this year, the first-team All-Pro QB threw 353 more yards, 17 more TDs, and nine fewer INTs while throwing 80 fewer passes in general and 74 fewer passes to WR Julio Jones in particular.
Mr. Sarah Marshall leads the league with a 7.1 percent TD rate. Per Player Profiler:
Rodgers and Brady are two of the best QBs in NFL history, but right now Ryan might be better.
There are lots of reasons to like Ryan this week. He’s the No. 1 DK QB in the Sports Geek Model, and we’re projecting him to have the position’s highest ownership.
The Falcons are in a great spot. They’re five-point home favorites implied to score an outrageous 32.5 points against the Packers. The Falcons led the league this year with 33.8 PPG, and after their Week 11 bye they’ve averaged 36.6 PPG and have scored fewer than 33 points only once in that time frame.
Plus, they have some #Narrative in their favor. This game will be the last ever played in the ‘historic’ Georgia Dome, the team’s home stadium since it opened in 1992. That building has been a fixture in Atlanta for the last 25 years. It was a major venue in the 1996 Summer Olympics. It has hosted the Peach Bowl since 1992 and the SEC Championship Game since 1994. Super Bowls XXVIII and XXXIV were played there. The Georgia Dome is to Atlanta what the Battlestar Galactica is to the survivors of the 12 colonies.
Just four years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Conference Championship, losing 28-24 to the 49ers in front of 70,863 fans. They didn’t make the playoffs for the next three years after that loss. In that game, Ryan completed 71.4 percent of his 42 passes for 396 yards and three TDs in what might’ve been the best performance of his career. This weekend’s game might be the most significant the Falcons have ever played in this building, and it’s the most significant of Ryan’s career to date.
Normally QBs don’t need extra incentive in conference championship games, but Ryan has it nonetheless.
The extent to which this is a good spot for the Falcons can’t be overstated. They haven’t had to leave Atlanta to play a road game in almost a full month. They are immersed in their environment. And Ryan is coming off perhaps the best stretch of his career. He hasn’t completed less than 70 percent of his passes in any of his last four games, and over the last two games he hasn’t passed for fewer than 331 yards and three TDs.
Yes, it’s quite exciting.
There’s nothing daunting about Ryan’s matchup with the Packers, against whom in Week 8 he completed 80 percent of his 35 pass attempts for 288 yards and three TDs. During the regular season, the Packers defense was 22nd in pass DVOA and allowed QBs to score the seventh-most fantasy points in the league (20.1 DK and 18.8 FD PPG).
This year only the Coors Field-y Drew Brees, the splits-y Big Ben, and the QB1 A-Rod have been better at home than Ryan. If you’re playing multiple GPP lineups and not rostering Ryan in at least one of them . . .
. . . you might experience some pain.
Ryan’s ceiling and floor projections rival those of Rodgers, but he is $400 cheaper and easily has the position’s highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+4.1 DK and +2.7 FD). He’s the only QB in the slate not to have a Dud performance over the last year.
In cash games, Ryan at worst is an acceptable cost-conscious pivot away from Rodgers. At best, he’s the preferable play.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other positional breakdowns for the conference championships:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
