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Steelers at Patriots
The Steelers head to Foxborough, where they are six-point underdogs against the Patriots. The game currently sits at a Vegas total of 50.5 points, almost 10 points lower than the NFC Championship game. The Patriots are currently implied for 28.25 points; the Steelers, 22.25.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
After Ben’s zero-touchdown performance in the divisional playoffs, he now has five road games without a TD pass this season. On top of that, Ben had fewer than 40 passing attempts for their eighth straight game. As they have been winning, the Steelers have been leaning on Le’Veon Bell and tasking Ben with less responsibility. He now has zero games with 300 yards passing since their loss to Dallas in Week 10. However, with the Steelers expected to trail, it’s possible that Ben could benefit from pass-heavy game flow.
Over the last eight weeks, the Patriots defense has allowed only one 300-yard passer, Joe Flacco, who attempted 52 passes. In that span they have allowed only eight TD passes while grabbing 10 interceptions. Although the Patriots have not faced a quarterback of Ben’s caliber in that time, it should be noted that Roethlisberger on the road has not played much better than the quarterbacks they have faced. He has thrown for nine TDs and eight INTs on the road this season, with a 78.4 quarterback rating.
DraftKings seems to have taken Roethlisberger’s road struggles into account, pricing him much cheaper than the other QBs. His salary is also much higher on FanDuel. Because of this pricing dynamic, Roethliberger has a slate-high 98 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he’s the highest-rated QB in the Levitan Player Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon now has 20 carries in eight straight games, in seven of which he has at least 100 yards rushing. Bell also has three straight games with over five yards per carry. He hasn’t had a game with fewer than 4.0 YPC since Week 10. In the team’s last three losses, Bell managed only 52 collective carries, but he did have 32 targets. In a game in which the Steelers are projected to trail, Bell is likely to be heavily involved in the passing game. He saw 13 targets in the loss to New England in Week 7, although Landry Jones was at quarterback.
Bell is facing a Patriots defense that allowed the third-fewest rushing yards and fewest rushing TDs during the regular season. Per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Patriots defense ranked fourth against the run on the season. Last week, the Patriots held Lamar Miller to only 73 rushing yards on 19 attempts. The matchup is extremely tough for Bell, but he is playing at an all-world level. He leads the position in median projections.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
In what projects to be a close game, Williams will be lucky to see more than a couple of touches.
WR – Antonio Brown
To no one’s surprise, Brown turned in his fourth straight 100-yard playoff game, with 101 receiving yards in the first half. As the Steelers led in the second half, Brown caught only a single pass for seven yards. Unfortunately for Brown, the Steelers have turned into a run-heavy team during their nine-game winning streak. Brown has fewer than 10 targets in four of those wins. He only had two such performances in their first nine games this season.
The Patriots passing defense has been very stingy against wide receivers this season, with only four of them going over 100 yards. Over the last six weeks, only Jarvis Landry and Demaryius Thomas have had 10-plus targets against this secondary, and neither managed 100 yards. Regardless, if the Steelers are to have a shot at winning this game, Brown is going to need to be involved. He has the highest median projections among all WRs.
WR – Eli Rogers
With tight end Ladarius Green out of the lineup, Rogers was second on the team in targets last weekend. Unfortunately, his five catches only amounted to 27 yards. However, some slot receivers have had success against the Patriots. For instance, Landry posted two big games against them this season, totaling 19 catches for 211 yards and a TD. With the Patriots likely to sell out to stop Brown, Rogers has an opportunity to collect a high number of targets.
TE – Jesse James
Per our NFL News feed, Green (concussion) hasn’t played since Week 15. He is still in the concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced this week. He seems unlikely to play this weekend.
During the regular season, James averaged only 4.3 targets per game in the 10 contests that Green missed. Last weekend against the Chiefs, James had six targets, his highest total since Week 5. It’s possible that he could be a strong low-owned play this weekend. It’s also possible that he could have zero receptions.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Brady finished the regular season with the second-highest Total QBR and yards per attempt but was under constant duress in the divisional playoffs against Houston last week. Although the Steelers are a middling 12th in pass DVOA, they could still be a tough adversary. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers defense has averaged three sacks, 1.5 forced fumbles, one INT, and just 1.25 passing TDs per game.
At the line of scrimmage things look a little better for the Patriots . . .
. . . but Brady ultimately has an average matchup in regards to the pressure he’s likely to face and the way his offensive line protects (per Football Outsiders and Sporting Charts). Per our Trends tool, Brady has played in just three home games over the last three years in which the Patriots were favored by no more than six points. The sample is small, but he’s smashed in those games:
For the Patriots this is a relatively tight spread, and Brady might be compelled to throw the ball more than he usually is. Brady rates as the highest overall QB in the Levitan Model on FD, where his salary has dropped $700 over the past month.
RB – Dion Lewis
Lewis, who had been sharing early-down work with LeGarrette Blount, emerged as the lead back against the Texans last week, handling 62.5 percent of the touches in the New England backfield. The Patriots stuck with Lewis despite two fumbles, even giving him goal-line work.
Lewis has averaged 14.5 carries and 1.7 catches over the Pats’ last four games. If he continues to see volume in the passing game he could go off again this week against a Steelers defense ranked 11th in rush DVOA but 19th in pass DVOA against RBs. Targeting home favored running backs is historically a positive tactic, and Dion’s usage and salary put him squarely in play in all formats. Lewis is the No. 3 RB in the DK Cash Model, with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+2.4) and third-highest ceiling projection (23.8 points). He has the position’s highest FantasyLabs ownership projection.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
Blount inexplicably saw just eight touches against the Texans last week.
During the regular season he led the league in red-zone carries and finished second in total TDs, but he is a TD- and game-flow dependent power runner who often needs clock-killing usage to be effective. However, he’s now the No. 2 RB in our Tournament Model on DK, where his salary has dropped $1,200 over the past month. Historically, home favorite RBs have tended to perform well at low ownership after a comparable salary drop:
Over the last four games Blount has by far had the most opportunities inside the 10-yard line (15) of any RB on the slate, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report. He is currently projected for 17-20 percent ownership in the Quarter Millionaire on DK, where he owns a slate-high 87 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – James White
He had one target and zero rush attempts last week, but he did score a TD. His usage is extremely thin, but he represents a leverage opportunity in guaranteed prize pools, as Lewis and Blount are likely to have the majority of tournament ownership in this backfield. He is projected for just five to eight percent ownership in the Sunday Million.
WR – Julian Edelman
Edelman balled out against the Texans defense last week, as he converted his 13 targets into an 8-137-0 line. He’s been heavily featured in the offense ever since Rob Gronkowski was lost for the season, as he’s averaged 12.6 targets per game since Week 11. His massive volume over the past four weeks is extremely appealing:
His 35.38 percent target share over the last four games is nearly ten percentage points higher than that of any other WR in the slate. Edelman will need that extra volume — because his matchup isn’t great. The Steelers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs this season. Per our Matchups page, he will run the majority of his routes in the slot against William Gay, Pro Football Focus’ No. 10 cornerback this season. Edelman is currently rated as the No. 3 WR in our Cash Model on FD with a Bargain Rating of 92 percent.
WR – Michael Floyd and Chris Hogan
For the second week in a row, no WR for the Patriots stands out besides Edelman. Floyd and Hogan both have projected ceilings of 13-15 points but projected floors of less than a point.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett has some GPP appeal as a volatile option who has shown big upside this season on DK:
Bennett’s price is down $700 from last week after registering just one catch against the Texans and their No. 2 pass DVOA against TEs. This week Bennett has a much more favorable matchup, as the Steelers have struggled to defend TEs and have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus in the slate. Bennett is currently the highest-rated TE in our DK Tournament Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
